Crafty-Baseline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$999

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

95.2%

Resolved

Trades

988

lifetime

Volume

$93.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$95

Open exposure

$932

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-30 12:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

47% 67% +$245

Politics

41% 100% +$841

Crypto

11% — —

Sports

2% 12% $-88

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+2,701	$959	34¢	$932	$-27	06-30 15:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	48	$4.5K	2,783	5,310	-2,527	open	—	06-24 14:21
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?	21	$4.4K	4,590	2,248	+2,342	open	—	04-22 19:19
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	43	$4.1K	2,231	3,982	-1,751	open	—	06-26 18:29
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	26	$3.9K	2,658	2,358	+300	open	—	06-21 08:43
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	6	$3.6K	2,106	2,106	+0	open	—	06-30 14:02
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	47	$3.5K	2,008	2,008	+0	open	—	06-22 19:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	26	$3.3K	3,011	1,511	+1,500	open	—	06-30 12:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	42	$2.8K	2,475	1,730	+745	open	—	04-29 16:30
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	22	$2.8K	2,054	2,010	+44	open	—	05-01 10:00
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	13	$2.8K	1,399	1,399	+0	open	—	06-21 15:09
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	18	$2.7K	1,397	1,397	+0	open	—	04-28 15:58
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	5	$2.7K	1,572	1,572	+0	open	—	04-22 08:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	16	$2.6K	5,095	2,184	+2,911	open	—	06-30 15:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	29	$2.5K	2,135	2,207	-73	open	—	05-27 09:18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	20	$2.5K	1,588	1,388	+200	No	+$66	05-04 09:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	15	$2.3K	1,262	1,262	+0	open	—	04-24 19:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	27	$2.3K	1,499	1,498	+1	open	—	05-26 07:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	12	$2.3K	1,265	1,265	+0	open	—	05-27 14:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	3	$2.1K	1,201	1,201	+0	open	—	05-27 09:24
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	3	$2.1K	1,899	529	+1,370	open	—	06-19 14:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	9	$1.7K	1,024	1,024	+0	open	—	04-27 15:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	13	$1.6K	875	874	+0	open	—	05-25 17:25
megaeth fdv above 1pt4b one day after launch	8	$1.6K	1,879	59	+1,820	open	—	05-01 18:57
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	7	$1.6K	1,383	400	+983	open	—	06-16 11:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$1.4K	2,498	2,498	+0	open	—	04-28 13:19
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	11	$1.3K	689	689	+0	open	—	04-22 19:14
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	11	$1.2K	1,368	1,368	+0	open	—	06-29 14:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	30	$1.2K	2,094	2,087	+7	open	—	04-21 19:54
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	6	$1.1K	1,586	0	+1,586	open	—	06-14 19:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	6	$1.1K	1,144	1,144	+0	open	—	05-18 01:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 15:20:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,911	34¢	$650	0xf977ac…
06-30 15:02:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	372	35¢	$130	0x0596af…
06-30 14:59:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	16	35¢	$6	0xf98f0e…
06-30 14:59:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x68a67f…
06-30 14:58:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	343	35¢	$120	0x668a62…
06-30 14:02:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	500	84¢	$420	0xf2cbd6…
06-30 13:53:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0xf8032e…
06-30 13:14:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	464	84¢	$390	0x52693a…
06-30 13:07:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	464	84¢	$390	0x817ee7…
06-30 12:35:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	500	78¢	$390	0xf38c5d…
06-30 12:05:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	500	78¢	$390	0xab9ad5…
06-30 11:49:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	88	61¢	$53	0xbd57e9…
06-30 11:48:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	180	62¢	$112	0x843c87…
06-30 11:48:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	71	75¢	$53	0x264cf7…
06-30 11:48:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	23	63¢	$14	0xdcccf4…
06-30 11:48:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	113	75¢	$85	0x13a6fa…
06-30 11:47:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xfb5769…
06-30 11:45:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	51	75¢	$38	0x64e941…
06-30 11:43:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	38	63¢	$24	0xc273c2…
06-30 11:40:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	32	75¢	$24	0x539924…
06-30 10:10:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	255	69¢	$176	0x5abc1d…
06-30 10:10:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	869	69¢	$600	0x58312e…
06-30 09:05:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	291	63¢	$183	0x1f9c19…
06-30 08:57:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1,142	84¢	$959	0x57064d…
06-30 08:42:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,142	85¢	$971	0x83a084…
06-30 08:34:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	245	64¢	$157	0x883a91…
06-30 02:43:43	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 btts	Yes	SELL	24	31¢	$8	0x447ba5…
06-30 02:43:41	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 btts	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xa4c711…
06-30 02:43:41	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 btts	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x67bca0…
06-29 20:06:25	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 btts	Yes	BUY	51	54¢	$27	0x6a4501…
06-29 14:39:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	464	45¢	$209	0xd24e0f…
06-29 14:33:46	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	464	45¢	$209	0xe4118f…
06-29 13:44:26	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	12	45¢	$6	0x8b3235…
06-29 13:44:10	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xc5b704…
06-29 13:44:08	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xf0a1d9…
06-29 13:44:08	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	440	45¢	$198	0x4f39d7…
06-29 12:07:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xe87ab1…
06-29 12:00:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	245	66¢	$162	0x70a974…
06-29 11:56:31	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Germany	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x3721dd…
06-29 11:49:08	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	51	57¢	$29	0xd8c8c6…
06-29 11:32:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	194	80¢	$155	0x2a8ab4…
06-29 10:02:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	194	84¢	$163	0x5995c6…
06-29 09:53:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	924	30¢	$277	0xf227b1…
06-29 04:49:29	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0x7734da…
06-28 20:22:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	300	29¢	$87	0x0164e2…
06-28 15:40:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	1,155	23¢	$266	0x85fdf1…
06-28 15:21:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	759	35¢	$266	0x0f32f5…
06-28 14:53:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	989	35¢	$346	0xa672f1…
06-28 14:48:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	53	35¢	$19	0x150525…
06-28 14:48:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x1af9b9…
06-28 14:47:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	22	35¢	$8	0x807a91…
06-28 14:47:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	37	35¢	$13	0xc64521…
06-28 13:36:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	35¢	$350	0x7c1553…
06-28 11:36:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,021	34¢	$347	0x089f12…
06-28 07:16:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x6cd76d…
06-28 06:01:01	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	160	27¢	$43	0x0e323a…
06-28 06:00:35	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	240	27¢	$65	0x2cfa5d…
06-28 05:55:56	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	690	45¢	$310	0x5a802c…
06-28 05:50:35	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	400	27¢	$108	0xe1afda…
06-28 05:24:22	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x885479…
06-28 04:53:38	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	575	21¢	$121	0x5280e6…
06-28 04:32:46	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x3280f5…
06-28 04:22:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	108	61¢	$66	0x745497…
06-28 03:46:14	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0xc6b276…
06-28 02:37:47	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xd3d11f…
06-27 23:44:02	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	25	21¢	$5	0x5c54ee…
06-27 06:54:31	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	904	45¢	$407	0x675c4d…
06-27 05:55:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	136	87¢	$118	0x636e8e…
06-27 05:51:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	136	87¢	$118	0xb29367…
06-27 04:48:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0xc84bd2…
06-26 20:29:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	500	70¢	$350	0xd7698f…
06-26 20:18:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	484	71¢	$343	0xad682a…
06-26 20:18:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	16	71¢	$12	0x15b8d6…
06-26 18:29:25	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,202	100¢	$1,201	0x9ce9ed…
06-26 13:53:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	161	73¢	$118	0x480016…
06-26 13:43:24	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	SELL	18	98¢	$17	0xf55152…
06-26 13:33:55	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xee4ea2…
06-26 08:30:11	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	212	60¢	$126	0x1fd8f9…
06-26 07:44:38	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	SELL	131	98¢	$129	0xf1660f…
06-26 05:05:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	121	76¢	$92	0xe03157…
06-25 23:27:56	fifwc jpn swe 2026 06 25 btts	Yes	BUY	31	39¢	$12	0x5fb45b…
06-25 18:14:50	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	70	41¢	$29	0x5f76f1…
06-25 17:05:04	fifwc jpn swe 2026 06 25 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	44	53¢	$24	0xe89f55…
06-25 16:58:05	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	582	24¢	$140	0xaf188f…
06-25 13:07:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf34c58…
06-25 13:05:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xd88f31…
06-25 13:05:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xf73c0e…
06-25 12:20:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	170	79¢	$134	0x1581a9…
06-25 09:57:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xe65b88…
06-25 09:50:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	70	77¢	$54	0x59c0eb…
06-25 07:57:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x368eac…
06-25 07:36:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x01adaf…
06-25 07:19:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	120	80¢	$96	0xed1b29…
06-25 06:31:11	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xc71eb8…
06-25 02:23:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	680	98¢	$669	0xe86d9d…
06-24 17:01:25	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x40f633…
06-24 16:38:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x8d0f74…
06-24 16:18:14	fifwc che can 2026 06 24 btts	Yes	BUY	45	54¢	$24	0x5bc6b3…
06-24 14:21:29	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0x9849cd…
06-24 11:17:50	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	316	23¢	$73	0xd77d8b…