Untimely-Direction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.99K

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved

3,328

Trades

8,784

lifetime

Volume

$688.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

10 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 10-27 22:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 178 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 95% +$42

Other

14% 58% +$739

Politics

1% 23% -$246

Sports

1% 0% -$4,450

Tech

0% 17% -$72

Pop-Culture

0% 17% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 292 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+3	$1	92¢	$2	+$1	09-29 15:14
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$3	97¢	$2	-$1	10-18 19:55
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by november 30	Yes	+20	$3	8¢	$2	-$2	10-13 17:44
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	+1	$1	96¢	$1	+$0	10-12 15:36
anthropic lab leak by june 30 2027	No	+1	$1	92¢	$1	+$0	09-19 12:44
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	22¢	$0	-$1	10-16 00:06
anthropic lab leak by june 30 2027	Yes	+1	$0	8¢	$0	$0	09-19 04:48
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	10-17 17:08
us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922	Yes	+0	$0	36¢	$0	$0	09-23 14:06
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+0	$2	18¢	$0	-$2	10-20 04:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	101	$5.2K	5,445	5,445	+0	No	-$32	08-24 13:55
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	1	$5.0K	5,376	0	+5,376	France	+$376	07-04 16:58
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 team to advance	1	$5.0K	5,618	0	+5,618	France	+$618	06-30 20:48
ufc jer4 myk 2026 08 15	18	$4.4K	5,000	0	+5,000	Jeremiah Wells	-$4,450	08-15 01:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	46	$3.3K	4,158	4,158	+0	No	-$16	08-26 12:15
Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25?	1	$2.5K	2,763	0	+2,763	No	+$276	09-25 17:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	114	$1.9K	3,200	0	+3,200	Down	+$1,344	05-01 12:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 05:10 UTC	13	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$18	04-22 05:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 06:35 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	04-15 06:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 04:30 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$18	04-22 04:35
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 06:35 UTC	5	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	04-19 06:40
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 20:35 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$18	04-21 20:40
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	05-08 04:15
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	05-06 18:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	05-05 22:45
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	05-08 16:00
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$18	05-06 20:45
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$18	05-06 20:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 20:25 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$18	04-14 20:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 05:40 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	04-23 05:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	04-27 09:05
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$18	05-06 20:45
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	9	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$18	04-24 21:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 02:25 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	04-20 02:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 09:10 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	04-15 09:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 06:55 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$18	04-23 07:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$19	05-05 15:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	25	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$20	05-07 15:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	22	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Up	+$21	05-08 19:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 17:55 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	Down	+$21	04-17 18:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:47:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x047aef…
10-27 22:47:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x262380…
10-27 20:04:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	136	87¢	$118	0x71893c…
10-27 20:04:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	87¢	$56	0x15a373…
10-27 19:40:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x2eab03…
10-27 19:35:09	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xd68bc3…
10-27 17:23:14	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x1b3ec7…
10-27 16:32:11	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x71dade…
10-27 11:48:20	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x2dd514…
10-27 09:14:42	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	Yes	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0xb9e6e2…
10-27 09:14:08	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	No	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x4ad298…
10-27 08:46:17	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$41	0xb4090d…
10-27 07:14:33	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	Yes	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0x3469a1…
10-27 07:04:42	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" have a Metascore of at least 70?	Yes	SELL	18	93¢	$17	0x240c83…
10-27 06:38:51	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xe142d2…
10-27 05:58:59	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x57f5b2…
10-27 03:56:44	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1cb808…
10-27 03:53:33	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" have a Metascore of at least 70?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x49d458…
10-27 02:53:35	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x9b8e54…
10-26 23:12:47	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xd99aac…
10-26 22:56:42	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	SELL	25	81¢	$20	0xe11763…
10-26 22:44:29	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x0b45c8…
10-26 22:37:48	Venezuela election scheduled by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x6e1f2c…
10-26 20:12:47	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0x2f4e77…
10-26 20:04:41	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x535759…
10-26 19:55:06	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x2407a7…
10-26 19:53:44	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0x1d87a1…
10-26 19:40:03	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x711ee2…
10-26 19:26:24	Venezuela election scheduled by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xf916ed…
10-26 18:47:59	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$0	0x64259f…
10-26 18:47:59	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x198f1b…
10-26 18:36:42	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x5e7836…
10-26 18:32:59	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0xa9e2eb…
10-26 18:26:17	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xbe5047…
10-26 17:52:00	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x352926…
10-26 16:32:14	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x8554b3…
10-26 14:53:06	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xa8ef44…
10-26 14:44:05	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xd1362c…
10-26 14:00:21	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xb6000e…
10-26 11:06:24	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0xe37104…
10-26 08:42:42	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x8efd38…
10-26 08:16:17	Will Chronicle play for Team Vitality in 2027?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x2a493e…
10-26 08:08:50	Will Sato play for G2 Esports in 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x9235ad…
10-26 08:05:02	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x5cfb06…
10-26 05:40:56	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x601602…
10-25 20:43:38	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0xbd569f…
10-25 20:33:51	Will Sato play for G2 Esports in 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x7498df…
10-25 20:22:48	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0xf97f36…
10-25 17:57:54	Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xa994fd…
10-25 17:20:50	Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xf5ba5d…
10-25 16:04:15	Will Spilled Milk win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x25ed52…
10-25 14:57:00	Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	No	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x8739ea…
10-25 14:56:56	Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	No	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0x5601b5…
10-25 14:20:09	Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x6d7934…
10-25 13:32:41	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xccb4d0…
10-25 10:31:53	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xa0f659…
10-25 09:39:32	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0xd154eb…
10-25 09:34:03	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x3027e9…
10-25 09:28:45	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	No	SELL	36	86¢	$31	0x608b85…
10-25 08:43:39	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0x3d9683…
10-25 08:32:33	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x6c0be6…
10-25 06:40:29	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x097039…
10-25 06:38:56	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xc39275…
10-25 06:28:54	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xffb2a6…
10-25 06:24:38	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	No	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0xc7e30e…
10-25 05:32:57	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x7cf538…
10-25 05:12:15	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$7	0x4da119…
10-24 22:12:00	Will With Tapes and Toasts in the Car win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x9e78ef…
10-24 19:33:12	Will Pep Guardiola attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x151cd6…
10-24 16:38:30	Will With Tapes and Toasts in the Car win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x8a2eaf…
10-24 14:57:57	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0x4de2f1…
10-24 14:32:39	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0xe5e2c0…
10-24 14:02:32	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x36bde2…
10-24 13:28:02	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xc4f2a9…
10-24 11:56:27	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xe4af4c…
10-24 10:26:12	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x7350f1…
10-24 10:23:35	Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xc53468…
10-24 09:39:26	Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xe08806…
10-24 09:19:17	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x683327…
10-24 09:05:51	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xdfc4b7…
10-24 09:02:02	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xeeaa96…
10-24 06:17:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x177248…
10-24 05:43:15	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x71e435…
10-24 05:31:42	Will Princess Charlene of Monaco attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x9eabea…
10-24 05:31:42	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	15¢	$2	0x568b46…
10-24 05:10:30	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x6affb6…
10-24 04:01:44	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x9c4eda…
10-24 03:39:12	Will OXY play for Sentinels in 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xb9dadb…
10-24 03:08:27	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x55fdab…
10-24 02:30:41	Will Princess Charlene of Monaco attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x620bcc…
10-24 02:29:53	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	16	15¢	$2	0xaacb5a…
10-24 01:49:32	Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x5b4c05…
10-24 01:23:05	Will OXY play for Sentinels in 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x5344ed…
10-24 00:24:57	Will Jude Bellingham attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0x7bb59f…
10-23 23:06:59	Will Thierry Henry attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x6f4a21…
10-23 23:06:59	Will Thierry Henry attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x27a6a7…
10-23 22:45:14	Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x535c68…
10-23 21:23:56	Will Jude Bellingham attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x60061d…
10-23 19:47:32	Will Fabián Ruiz attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xe0aba8…
10-23 19:10:23	Will Thierry Henry attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xa88543…