Honest-Sycamore — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$35

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

52.6%

Resolved (90d)

307

Trades (90d)

826

2,464 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$2.36K

$25.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-12

last 11-07 23:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 134 days

Categories

Other

66% 29% -$334

Crypto

29% 39% -$288

Sports

3% 25% -$137

Politics

2% 14% -$159

Tech

0% 0% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 383 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on November 8?	Yes		+6	$1	32¢	$2	+$1	11-07 23:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	39	$741	5,603	5,603	+0	No	-$2	06-03 01:49
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15?	9	$664	523	523	+0	Yes	+$227	06-15 06:28
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20?	21	$502	365	365	+0	Yes	+$111	06-20 09:34
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	34	$482	722	722	+0	No	-$8	05-10 23:55
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?	10	$373	346	346	+0	Yes	+$52	06-16 06:29
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	29	$336	514	514	+0	No	+$17	05-14 18:56
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 2?	12	$333	327	327	+0	Yes	+$153	07-02 20:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 01:15 UTC	2	$304	325	323	+3	Down	+$156	03-13 01:19
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 1?	7	$301	200	200	+0	Yes	+$94	07-01 19:50
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15?	6	$295	347	347	+0	No	+$5	06-14 18:07
nba atl det 2026 03 25	5	$289	274	274	+0	Hawks	-$17	03-26 01:34
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	16	$288	1,378	1,378	+0	No	+$109	05-03 01:42
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14?	9	$287	226	226	+0	Yes	+$43	06-14 17:58
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16?	9	$275	211	211	+0	Yes	+$43	06-16 19:10
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	27	$261	910	910	+0	Yes	+$39	05-11 22:00
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	22	$255	321	321	+0	No	-$16	05-14 18:57
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	8	$253	612	612	+0	No	+$94	05-03 01:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 03:40 UTC	2	$230	144	142	+2	Up	+$54	03-13 03:45
highest temperature in sao paulo on march 25 2026 30c	5	$229	206	206	+0	Yes	+$42	03-25 17:03
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	6	$228	346	346	+0	Yes	+$8	05-03 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 03:45 UTC	2	$225	196	194	+2	Down	-$65	03-13 03:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 01:10 UTC	6	$225	193	190	+3	Down	+$59	03-13 01:16
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24?	11	$223	246	246	+0	Yes	+$67	06-24 12:52
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	26	$218	377	377	+0	No	+$42	05-11 10:24
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?	8	$208	146	146	+0	Yes	+$58	06-30 20:11
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4?	13	$200	191	191	+0	Yes	-$6	06-04 22:39
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	9	$197	201	201	+0	Yes	+$53	05-07 10:32
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 3?	4	$197	202	202	+0	No	-$7	07-03 01:30
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4?	12	$194	223	223	+0	No	-$33	06-04 16:44
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	3	$186	531	531	+0	No	-$16	05-04 18:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 23:02:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on November 8?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x151d42…
11-07 22:42:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 7°C on November 7?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x732302…
11-07 05:16:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 7°C on November 7?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x40ac95…
11-07 03:20:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on November 7?	Yes	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x27060f…
11-06 16:27:28	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 6?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9e05ec…
11-06 12:58:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 6?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x87ea3c…
11-06 12:55:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 6?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc0fb89…
11-06 11:40:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 6?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x6e9864…
11-06 11:39:10	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 6?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x492f8c…
11-05 15:02:43	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 5?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb4d86c…
11-05 14:18:48	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 5?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0xc6a1be…
11-05 12:18:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xa9b1fe…
11-05 12:16:09	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x6930f9…
11-04 18:20:58	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on November 4?	Yes	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x04e303…
11-04 18:13:52	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xf98772…
11-04 12:31:18	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 4?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0x34e574…
11-04 06:13:22	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x85e6d1…
11-04 06:13:22	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x31c480…
11-03 11:57:37	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x8253bb…
11-03 11:57:37	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 3?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6fe193…
11-02 19:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x9bbe97…
11-02 12:55:15	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on November 2?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xd4c452…
11-02 12:54:40	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x45c5a6…
11-02 11:49:34	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xe9139d…
11-02 11:49:34	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x8c0a9f…
11-02 09:44:52	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on November 2?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xdc8a11…
11-02 05:16:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?	No	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x0ba9c0…
11-02 04:43:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?	No	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x898842…
11-02 04:37:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?	No	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0xcff11e…
11-02 00:53:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x619091…
11-01 19:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x481568…
11-01 14:15:09	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe1a44a…
11-01 12:50:46	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x24465a…
11-01 10:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0xf243da…
11-01 10:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x624d37…
11-01 10:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x6c8d65…
10-28 16:27:26	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xa13a4e…
10-19 19:12:47	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x26de61…
10-19 19:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0xe58057…
10-19 16:02:02	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x6a1efc…
10-19 12:07:20	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x92f8dc…
10-19 11:41:26	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	35	5¢	$2	0x058428…
10-19 10:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xed15d4…
10-19 09:06:50	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe61732…
10-18 21:50:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x63ba6f…
10-18 19:44:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xf8bdee…
10-18 16:26:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xe572d6…
10-18 16:13:59	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x0f2685…
10-18 15:33:30	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on October 18?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x57f286…
10-18 09:24:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x1805d6…
10-17 19:10:17	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xd55ef7…
10-17 16:22:06	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	26	6¢	$2	0xea9a77…
10-17 14:52:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 17?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xbfaa1f…
10-17 09:23:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x0df3be…
10-17 04:41:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 17?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xddc406…
10-17 02:43:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0x6b3dfe…
10-15 17:54:59	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$2	0xec1979…
10-14 14:50:06	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x5181d7…
10-14 09:39:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0x5d5cab…
10-14 09:36:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x940a01…
10-14 08:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x1e2345…
10-14 04:46:55	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 14?	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0xf16754…
10-14 02:34:23	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x99147c…
10-14 02:34:20	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xb38bd7…
10-14 02:32:29	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0xc5f95e…
10-13 21:20:06	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x16d93f…
10-13 16:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x813ad6…
10-13 15:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xdee6ed…
10-13 10:33:40	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 13?	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xcb9716…
10-13 10:06:56	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe2f5ea…
10-13 04:46:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x562f8a…
10-13 04:12:50	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xd51bdf…
10-12 22:50:51	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 12?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9d766b…
10-12 20:54:26	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 12?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6af501…
10-12 15:40:15	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 12?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x512feb…
10-12 11:55:44	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xcc1ba8…
10-12 11:49:05	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xcfb877…
10-12 10:14:20	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x99aedc…
10-12 07:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x6eb421…
10-12 07:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x539f4c…
10-12 07:01:16	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x3c0710…
10-11 16:32:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 11?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfbcfa0…
10-11 14:25:40	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xad9b9a…
10-11 14:00:09	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0x8063c0…
10-11 13:46:48	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf98f77…
10-11 09:03:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xdf3f5f…
10-10 18:40:49	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 10?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb63edc…
10-10 17:05:27	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x2487a6…
10-10 16:57:31	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x9d61e3…
10-10 07:01:07	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x36a8e3…
10-10 04:11:57	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x33c9f6…
10-10 04:01:01	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x74d62d…
10-10 04:01:01	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x02f552…
10-09 19:56:53	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb945cb…
10-09 16:04:18	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x945560…
10-09 15:46:52	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x75448f…
10-09 09:46:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x0d550e…
10-08 16:01:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x282f23…
10-02 12:55:41	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x630514…
10-02 12:55:30	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 2?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6832f8…