Ignorant-Hormone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$120

Unrealized P&L

+$80

Hit rate

54.9%

Resolved

Trades

386

lifetime

Volume

$15.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$215

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-25 17:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

74% 52% +$280

Politics

13% 11% -$280

Tech

5% 0% -$40

Crypto

5% 75% +$130

Sports

4% 50% +$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	-288	-$179	56¢	$-163	+$16	05-03 21:21
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-372	-$74	11¢	$-39	+$35	05-02 21:09
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-585	-$42	2¢	$-13	+$29	05-05 04:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	38	$2.0K	3,747	3,091	+656	Yes	+$463	03-01 06:05
will sean penn win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	63	$1.1K	982	982	+0	Yes	+$16	03-09 07:46
cbb mia pur 2026 03 22	2	$940	2,000	2,000	+0	Purdue Boilermakers	-$20	03-22 16:04
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$730	500	500	+0	No	-$40	02-18 21:16
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	10	$700	500	500	+0	Yes	-$40	02-18 21:16
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$639	522	522	+0	No	+$104	02-01 19:24
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	4	$626	400	400	+0	Yes	+$46	06-20 09:18
will bad bunny have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	2	$579	300	300	+0	No	+$3	02-23 17:02
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	19	$546	434	434	+0	No	-$34	03-02 15:17
will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	7	$407	300	300	+0	open	—	07-20 20:10
will teyana taylor win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	15	$381	397	397	+0	No	+$7	02-27 07:56
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	27	$369	300	300	+0	Yes	+$3	01-03 05:45
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	4	$354	401	264	+137	Yes	-$16	02-12 20:21
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	1	$328	450	0	+450	Yes	-$328	02-06 22:36
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$322	200	200	+0	Yes	-$2	01-04 21:54
coin up or down on february 18 2026	3	$315	200	200	+0	Down	-$7	02-18 16:50
will one battle after another win best film editing at the 98th academy awards	8	$300	203	203	+0	Yes	+$8	03-01 06:03
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	3	$281	160	160	+0	Yes	+$38	06-30 22:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$272	200	200	+0	Yes	-$28	07-13 17:42
Will Le Mans FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?	3	$249	197	197	+0	Yes	+$0	05-09 08:47
will jannik sinner win the 2026 australian open	39	$246	222	272	-50	No	-$22	01-04 20:56
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	7	$195	192	200	-8	No	-$27	05-03 07:03
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?	3	$194	400	0	+400	Yes	-$194	03-19 20:08
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	13	$179	0	288	-288	open	—	05-03 21:21
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	2	$169	100	100	+0	open	—	07-04 16:26
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	1	$154	408	0	+408	No	-$154	01-28 20:37
Trump out as President before 2027?	4	$152	600	600	+0	open	—	05-12 15:12
fifwc bih qat 2026 06 24 goals edin dzeko gte1	2	$145	324	0	+324	No	-$145	06-24 18:50
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$140	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-12 11:37
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	5	$134	200	200	+0	No	-$14	05-13 04:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-25 17:56:34	Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	24¢	$3	0xb7c94e…
08-25 17:56:25	Epstein storage units raided in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0xd80f91…
07-20 20:10:27	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	234	58¢	$137	0x2f43ef…
07-13 17:42:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0x9cdfdc…
07-13 14:23:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x28ce10…
07-13 09:47:05	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0xaff4c2…
07-13 04:09:41	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	31	67¢	$21	0x52de2f…
07-09 04:55:11	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x912bf0…
07-08 19:51:19	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x03ce69…
07-06 13:00:08	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	67	52¢	$35	0xaf52f1…
07-05 22:10:43	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	72	32¢	$23	0x81c0df…
07-05 12:54:05	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 btts	Yes	BUY	61	61¢	$37	0x6a214b…
07-04 16:26:29	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xf6f9ea…
07-04 09:32:41	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x91d236…
07-01 19:54:05	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x50fc81…
07-01 00:19:37	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x1a6477…
07-01 00:19:23	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc280ba…
07-01 00:19:10	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0xf472e8…
06-30 22:35:53	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	SELL	160	100¢	$160	0x2a4fad…
06-30 20:13:07	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0xcb74d6…
06-26 18:40:19	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xb2b030…
06-25 14:56:14	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xff5df9…
06-25 13:40:28	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x934e80…
06-25 11:51:14	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xf2490d…
06-24 18:50:44	fifwc bih qat 2026 06 24 goals edin dzeko gte1	Yes	BUY	310	45¢	$140	0xd68aa6…
06-24 18:43:20	fifwc bih qat 2026 06 24 goals edin dzeko gte1	Yes	BUY	14	42¢	$6	0xf9f785…
06-24 08:05:25	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xb910be…
06-24 07:38:32	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0xcaa7c4…
06-23 11:26:38	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	160	64¢	$102	0xa84034…
06-23 11:26:13	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	160	66¢	$106	0x329c1a…
06-22 21:34:10	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 goals kylian mbappe gte3	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x1d6945…
06-22 21:27:59	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 goals kylian mbappe gte2	Yes	BUY	39	62¢	$24	0x30d9aa…
06-22 21:27:44	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 goals kylian mbappe gte2	Yes	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x2fe78f…
06-22 18:09:16	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x776f5a…
06-20 09:18:52	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x555c24…
06-17 19:55:22	Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x9ebe13…
06-17 03:50:41	Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x3323dd…
06-17 03:50:23	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0xd9213d…
06-17 03:46:17	Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x332f76…
06-16 18:41:01	Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xa918a4…
06-16 18:39:38	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	SELL	40	34¢	$14	0x1af1ee…
06-16 18:38:56	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x26caf3…
06-16 04:52:39	Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x060baf…
06-16 04:22:39	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x5c777f…
06-15 21:02:30	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0xb18a0a…
06-15 19:06:58	Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x086cfc…
06-12 08:23:36	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x58c7ff…
06-05 10:05:37	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	31	82¢	$25	0x10c39e…
06-03 19:26:07	Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x4eaeaa…
05-18 15:30:21	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	SELL	24	60¢	$14	0x1842ea…
05-17 23:04:31	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x334164…
05-16 11:22:56	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xe3f3c4…
05-15 18:56:01	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0x7d3d7f…
05-15 07:59:57	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x35da73…
05-13 04:38:12	Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	13¢	$25	0x1f75e4…
05-13 04:37:52	Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0x5575c4…
05-12 15:12:56	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0xff1346…
05-12 11:37:27	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x7a874d…
05-11 21:02:57	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xb11a2a…
05-11 11:59:52	Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	53	37¢	$20	0x260ede…
05-11 11:29:07	Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xeb2ff8…
05-11 11:12:44	Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	77	25¢	$19	0x777aa3…
05-11 09:43:27	Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xdbdf81…
05-11 08:55:56	Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	23	37¢	$9	0x64c69b…
05-11 08:32:20	Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	104	37¢	$38	0xf99c3c…
05-11 07:37:08	Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xf786bc…
05-11 07:08:40	Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	45	25¢	$11	0x0cee81…
05-11 07:07:30	Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	53	25¢	$13	0x3ba52e…
05-11 02:32:24	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	SELL	150	14¢	$21	0xe2356f…
05-09 11:57:37	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x4ad602…
05-09 10:34:26	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	400	13¢	$52	0xbd5db4…
05-09 08:48:09	Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	SELL	39	62¢	$24	0x8be3ed…
05-09 08:47:46	Will Le Mans FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	SELL	197	63¢	$124	0xacd018…
05-09 08:19:04	Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	35	62¢	$22	0xf9fc90…
05-09 08:18:06	Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	4	62¢	$3	0xe166d4…
05-09 07:45:07	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xe2873a…
05-09 07:33:58	Will Le Mans FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	187	63¢	$118	0x457048…
05-09 00:00:07	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	13¢	$52	0x6ddc44…
05-08 08:04:29	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	175	14¢	$25	0x3fdf74…
05-08 05:59:21	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	14¢	$4	0xd4c85c…
05-08 03:16:12	Will Le Mans FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x066786…
05-07 20:16:33	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0x060d62…
05-06 11:27:26	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x0b8d2c…
05-05 04:57:50	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	538	7¢	$38	0x993814…
05-03 21:21:14	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0xe73576…
05-03 18:26:54	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	81	62¢	$50	0x7e7f4c…
05-03 18:00:28	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	24	60¢	$14	0x6d796c…
05-03 17:22:08	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	19	62¢	$12	0xc20d0e…
05-03 07:03:50	Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Yes	SELL	176	42¢	$74	0x02de79…
05-02 21:09:38	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	372	20¢	$74	0x28085c…
05-02 21:05:56	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$1	0x598b3e…
05-02 19:29:16	Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Yes	SELL	24	42¢	$10	0x44435f…
05-02 18:53:32	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	105	62¢	$65	0x70381b…
05-02 13:51:32	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	16	62¢	$10	0x7be2e5…
05-02 08:21:10	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0x2a093d…
05-02 00:42:14	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xadaeb2…
05-01 21:21:32	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xfd6d73…
05-01 12:19:38	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x5a388f…
04-30 19:12:50	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	16	62¢	$10	0xdb3624…
04-30 18:10:46	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$3	0x36f1a5…