Direct-Fantasy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.66K

Unrealized P&L

+$102

Hit rate

67.6%

Resolved

1,797

Trades

40,167

lifetime

Volume

$1.49M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$649

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-14 08:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 280 days

Categories

Other

85% 63% +$9,361

Sports

14% 68% -$713

Politics

1% 100% +$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 134 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	+400	$247	78¢	$310	+$63	11-13 19:00
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+200	$94	76¢	$151	+$57	09-06 04:42
Will Sweden win on 2026-11-14?	No	+415	$140	34¢	$139	-$1	11-14 08:41
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+200	$104	24¢	$49	-$55	09-05 22:09
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+0	$0	24¢	$0	+$0	09-12 09:31
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$38	90¢	$0	+$38	11-01 06:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	342	$42.6K	41,209	41,208	+0	No	+$228	07-14 16:41
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 rma1	571	$20.8K	15,093	16,789	-1,696	No	-$487	04-07 15:16
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	141	$16.5K	19,500	18,500	+1,000	Yes	-$6	07-02 20:26
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	427	$12.0K	10,889	10,889	+0	No	+$74	06-25 22:15
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	379	$12.0K	15,753	7,753	+8,000	No	+$82	05-29 18:20
ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	277	$11.4K	11,213	11,744	-531	Yes	+$622	04-14 13:25
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	217	$11.2K	19,145	3,145	+16,000	No	+$102	07-05 20:29
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	148	$10.9K	51,600	51,600	+0	No	+$120	07-15 20:28
ucl new fcb1 2026 03 10 fcb1	129	$9.6K	8,704	8,983	-280	No	-$17	03-10 19:40
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	81	$9.5K	8,000	8,000	+0	No	+$10	07-05 23:48
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	66	$9.0K	10,100	8,100	+2,000	Yes	-$12	07-04 13:29
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	171	$8.7K	81,218	81,218	+0	No	+$251	06-29 13:23
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	299	$8.4K	8,591	9,773	-1,182	Yes	+$543	04-07 23:16
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?	189	$8.2K	11,202	5,681	+5,521	Yes	-$20	05-07 18:25
ucl rma1 ben 2026 02 25 rma1	239	$7.8K	6,874	6,642	+232	Yes	+$337	02-25 20:34
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	84	$7.7K	20,430	21,220	-790	No	+$164	07-14 19:44
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	31	$7.5K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$2	07-11 16:41
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	85	$7.4K	4,108	4,108	+0	No	+$77	06-27 21:49
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	213	$7.0K	5,363	5,363	+0	Yes	+$78	07-07 19:34
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	73	$7.0K	10,000	4,000	+6,000	No	+$20	06-29 21:35
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	54	$6.9K	4,723	4,723	+0	No	+$23	06-27 22:05
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	121	$6.8K	3,854	4,949	-1,094	No	-$77	04-15 20:49
ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	227	$6.7K	6,264	7,711	-1,447	Yes	+$692	04-05 23:34
lal bil vil 2026 04 12 bil	114	$6.4K	6,323	5,356	+967	No	+$447	04-12 19:04
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	318	$6.4K	12,014	2,015	+10,000	Yes	+$31	07-03 20:44
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	222	$6.3K	8,799	8,799	+0	Yes	+$63	06-20 19:06
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	299	$6.2K	8,000	4,000	+4,000	No	-$25	07-06 18:22
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	54	$5.9K	10,018	2,000	+8,018	No	+$26	07-11 19:11
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	10	$5.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$15	07-18 22:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	46	$5.8K	4,030	3,630	+400	open	—	11-13 19:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 08:41:26	Will Sweden win on 2026-11-14?	No	SELL	385	33¢	$127	0xde7ec3…
11-14 05:12:29	Will Sweden win on 2026-11-14?	No	BUY	500	33¢	$165	0x586ca0…
11-14 04:55:46	Will Sweden win on 2026-11-14?	No	BUY	270	34¢	$92	0xe39698…
11-13 21:24:57	Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-11-13?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x56ba4d…
11-13 21:24:39	Will Scotland win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x9364e5…
11-13 21:09:15	Will Scotland win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x8ed94a…
11-13 21:09:03	Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-11-13?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x564799…
11-13 19:00:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	55	77¢	$43	0x3425f4…
11-13 16:16:30	Will Moldova vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xcd4fc0…
11-13 15:40:46	Will Moldova vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x56850a…
11-13 15:37:39	Will Moldova vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x0a0c6c…
11-13 15:24:58	Will Moldova vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x0bbdcd…
11-13 14:43:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	30	77¢	$23	0x59a48c…
11-13 14:19:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x7b493b…
11-13 14:06:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x7d4415…
11-13 11:32:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	23	77¢	$18	0x973e65…
11-13 10:02:58	Will Moldova vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0x4cdc5f…
11-13 08:24:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	130	77¢	$100	0x9461f5…
11-13 07:41:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	156	77¢	$120	0x8e8eb5…
11-12 20:57:58	Will Moldova vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xb0e93a…
11-12 14:02:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	500	75¢	$375	0x4fa83b…
11-12 02:59:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	76	77¢	$59	0xe7ffc9…
11-12 00:48:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	18	77¢	$14	0xdcb13e…
11-12 00:48:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	306	77¢	$235	0xfeadfb…
11-11 22:19:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	500	76¢	$380	0x965057…
11-11 22:16:49	Will France win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xdcf154…
11-11 12:11:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x4d8f7d…
11-11 03:19:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x25686b…
11-11 00:24:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0x8285f2…
11-10 12:18:03	Will France win on 2026-11-12?	No	SELL	142	45¢	$64	0x3b5ccb…
11-10 12:04:37	Will France win on 2026-11-12?	No	SELL	160	45¢	$72	0x012c9b…
11-10 11:39:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	270	75¢	$203	0xeed5fa…
11-10 11:35:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x022b6c…
11-10 10:35:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	198	76¢	$151	0xcccd02…
11-10 08:26:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x04e142…
11-09 22:05:43	Will France win on 2026-11-12?	No	BUY	500	44¢	$220	0xac8d1c…
11-09 17:01:49	Will France win on 2026-11-12?	No	BUY	300	44¢	$132	0xfe2b4b…
11-09 15:40:13	Will Sweden win on 2026-11-14?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xa11e58…
11-09 14:22:55	Will Sweden win on 2026-11-14?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x5b0194…
11-09 14:14:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x6c910f…
11-09 13:17:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xf308bb…
11-09 10:36:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x97aefc…
11-09 06:27:10	Will Türkiye win on 2026-11-12?	No	SELL	97	74¢	$72	0xfe5d9d…
11-09 06:14:16	Will Türkiye win on 2026-11-12?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x27e006…
11-09 05:58:37	Will Türkiye win on 2026-11-12?	No	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0xf886a0…
11-08 21:39:09	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x26c642…
11-08 16:33:27	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	SELL	122	67¢	$82	0x21160f…
11-08 16:32:55	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	SELL	125	53¢	$66	0x81f7e1…
11-08 16:31:00	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	SELL	250	51¢	$127	0xfef931…
11-08 14:42:10	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x9163c8…
11-08 13:22:34	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	137	55¢	$75	0x14f93c…
11-08 13:16:49	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x69be4b…
11-08 13:11:58	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	192	55¢	$105	0x1e6604…
11-08 13:04:33	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x58abd7…
11-08 12:59:51	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x8dfa3a…
11-08 12:59:45	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	44	55¢	$24	0xb9ce49…
11-08 12:57:33	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x962e77…
11-08 12:56:04	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x247249…
11-08 12:54:54	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xff92e7…
11-08 12:50:07	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xbcaa56…
11-08 11:00:45	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0x9438eb…
11-08 02:10:25	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xce63cb…
11-07 21:48:33	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x20ea61…
11-07 14:12:21	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	SELL	18	83¢	$15	0x27b638…
11-07 14:12:19	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0xea0fc2…
11-07 14:12:04	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xc3dec0…
11-07 13:57:21	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xa9e861…
11-07 12:54:07	Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0xf1c318…
11-07 12:48:10	Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x5da976…
11-07 12:45:15	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	23	67¢	$15	0xb41f2b…
11-07 12:45:13	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0x5a9a89…
11-07 12:41:57	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	75	66¢	$50	0xfe03f1…
11-07 12:41:24	Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xd55a95…
11-07 12:41:16	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	150	66¢	$99	0x3e8e0f…
11-07 11:35:21	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	225	63¢	$142	0xa6f13a…
11-07 11:33:51	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0x4b420e…
11-07 11:27:21	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0xde9efb…
11-07 11:25:52	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	36	63¢	$23	0x7b8fa4…
11-07 11:24:43	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0x942782…
11-07 11:24:43	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0x3c34ef…
11-07 11:22:43	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x1bfae4…
11-07 11:20:13	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x445fd5…
11-07 11:13:06	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x6d9f9c…
11-07 11:12:30	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	BUY	300	62¢	$186	0x9918e1…
11-07 02:52:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	400	76¢	$304	0xa19924…
11-07 01:27:54	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	BUY	300	62¢	$186	0xddc089…
11-06 11:40:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	400	77¢	$308	0x8f72d0…
11-06 10:29:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	96	95¢	$91	0xd8ef8a…
11-05 21:34:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	300	74¢	$222	0x5e3252…
11-05 21:33:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	251	78¢	$196	0xc229a7…
11-05 20:26:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xaeb8ba…
11-05 19:30:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x37fc41…
11-05 19:03:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x426780…
11-05 18:51:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	182	78¢	$142	0xceeec0…
11-05 18:48:24	Will Türkiye win on 2026-11-12?	No	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0x947821…
11-05 16:40:13	Will Türkiye win on 2026-11-12?	No	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0x0bdeb5…
11-04 20:40:48	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?	No	SELL	125	43¢	$54	0xa6a2b5…
11-04 20:35:07	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?	No	SELL	125	40¢	$50	0x4dc579…
11-04 20:27:48	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?	No	SELL	212	39¢	$82	0x7443b0…
11-04 20:27:42	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?	No	SELL	38	39¢	$15	0x964c30…