Ripe-Potato — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$191

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

62.6%

Resolved

159

Trades

302

lifetime

Volume

$4.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$85

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 10-22 05:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 31% -$69

Politics

21% 50% -$36

Other

2% 17% -$66

Sports

0% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+51	$20	98¢	$50	+$30	07-06 12:26
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+68	$20	14¢	$10	-$10	05-24 18:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+52	$11	16¢	$9	-$2	10-22 05:55
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+77	$10	6¢	$5	-$5	10-21 12:50
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	+200	$10	2¢	$5	-$5	10-19 17:53
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	+112	$14	4¢	$4	-$9	07-27 04:03
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+133	$20	2¢	$3	-$17	06-30 07:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	6	$314	745	427	+317	Down	+$4	05-15 04:54
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$297	3,357	3,357	+0	open	—	09-09 13:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	4	$287	1,273	1,273	+0	Yes	-$33	09-13 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	4	$255	248	229	+19	Down	+$61	05-15 04:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	4	$243	269	269	+0	Down	+$89	05-15 05:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	3	$144	153	153	+0	Down	+$44	09-13 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	3	$140	162	128	+34	Down	+$41	05-15 06:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	3	$117	109	109	+0	Up	+$87	05-14 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	3	$108	81	81	+0	Up	+$54	09-13 13:15
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$82	72	72	+0	No	+$42	10-14 08:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	2	$75	72	72	+0	Up	+$55	05-14 18:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	6	$63	114	49	+65	Up	-$7	05-15 04:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	2	$60	245	0	+245	Up	-$60	05-15 05:05
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$53	30	30	+0	Yes	+$6	06-22 08:00
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:30 UTC	2	$53	49	49	+0	Up	+$33	10-13 13:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	6	$52	107	107	+0	Down	+$12	05-14 20:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	1	$50	231	0	+231	Down	-$50	05-15 04:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	5	$49	129	56	+73	Up	-$1	05-14 22:10
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	2	$48	31	31	+0	Yes	+$10	07-05 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	2	$48	53	53	+0	Down	+$10	05-17 20:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	2	$47	45	45	+0	Up	+$37	09-13 11:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	5	$46	66	42	+24	Up	+$20	05-15 03:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	2	$46	196	0	+196	Up	-$46	05-15 07:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	4	$46	55	55	+0	Down	+$6	05-14 21:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	2	$44	62	62	+0	Up	+$24	05-14 22:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	6	$44	105	75	+30	Up	+$44	05-14 16:28
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$44	24	24	+0	No	+$4	06-01 03:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	3	$43	50	50	+0	Up	+$13	05-14 21:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:50 UTC	2	$41	38	38	+0	Down	+$31	10-13 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	4	$40	49	49	+0	Up	+$20	05-14 14:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 05:55:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	21¢	$11	0x10e1da…
10-21 12:50:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x15edfc…
10-21 12:23:30	Will Yashar win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	47	32¢	$15	0x9d58e2…
10-19 17:53:53	Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xcb53b6…
10-14 08:49:31	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	109	14¢	$15	0x8b21ec…
10-14 08:49:16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	72	86¢	$62	0x24e271…
10-13 17:16:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	46	21¢	$10	0x29c74d…
10-13 17:06:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x2a515b…
10-13 17:02:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x5c9a64…
10-13 17:00:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x2605cd…
10-13 16:57:39	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:55 UTC	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x3413be…
10-13 16:55:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xc63db7…
10-13 15:39:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x9e8059…
10-13 15:36:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x24c930…
10-13 15:35:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xf98dab…
10-13 15:05:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xfdda65…
10-13 13:40:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:40 UTC	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x364711…
10-13 13:38:49	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:30 UTC	Up	SELL	49	87¢	$43	0xe4de3f…
10-13 13:32:59	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	49	20¢	$10	0xad43ff…
10-13 13:30:19	Ethereum Up or Down on October 13?	Up	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0xda651a…
10-13 13:25:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x2112b9…
10-13 13:22:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:20 UTC	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x2301e2…
10-13 13:18:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xe23882…
10-13 13:18:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	49	20¢	$10	0x8391ad…
10-13 13:11:28	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:00 UTC	Up	SELL	70	9¢	$6	0x545d63…
10-13 13:08:32	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:00 UTC	Up	SELL	101	10¢	$10	0xf714f5…
10-13 13:05:47	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xb1852e…
10-13 13:05:10	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	70	7¢	$5	0xf0f6e8…
10-13 13:03:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xac0bd0…
10-13 13:02:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x827cd4…
10-13 12:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x40cdba…
10-13 12:54:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:50 UTC	Down	SELL	38	94¢	$36	0x754c1b…
10-13 12:54:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xe003c5…
10-13 12:42:43	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xe4d175…
10-13 10:43:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x267a48…
10-13 10:17:17	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	75	13¢	$10	0x98896f…
10-13 10:12:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x039677…
10-13 10:07:22	Solana Up or Down on October 13?	Up	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0xa766dc…
10-13 10:03:29	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xadce8b…
10-13 10:01:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	SELL	53	29¢	$15	0x6611cd…
10-13 10:00:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x8269c4…
10-13 09:48:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x045873…
10-13 09:45:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x8ca452…
10-13 09:44:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:40 UTC	Down	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xfc1303…
10-13 09:41:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:40 UTC	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x2979e0…
09-13 16:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	41	28¢	$12	0xb4df4f…
09-13 16:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0x735338…
09-13 16:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0x324e2c…
09-13 15:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x00c8c7…
09-13 15:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xa6aec2…
09-13 15:52:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xe8f219…
09-13 15:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x5cca05…
09-13 15:50:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x3d8a3e…
09-13 15:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x8d66a4…
09-13 15:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xf634fe…
09-13 15:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x3fa550…
09-13 15:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	153	61¢	$94	0x60e493…
09-13 15:17:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x323cd9…
09-13 15:16:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xff1889…
09-13 15:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x4bd5f8…
09-13 15:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x3d9e26…
09-13 15:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xf223ae…
09-13 15:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xce32a3…
09-13 14:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x449d6e…
09-13 14:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xf07776…
09-13 14:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xed9168…
09-13 13:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x7e0324…
09-13 13:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x4242dd…
09-13 13:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0x67feaa…
09-13 13:05:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x5c71a8…
09-13 13:03:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x5e5661…
09-13 13:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x683628…
09-13 13:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xe278fe…
09-13 12:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x59f8aa…
09-13 12:54:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	778	10¢	$78	0xf72246…
09-13 11:14:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	778	11¢	$86	0x17df3f…
09-13 11:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x7eb3f3…
09-13 11:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x48c6ef…
09-13 11:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	21	70¢	$14	0xa1fbbb…
09-13 11:02:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	45	92¢	$42	0xd0e702…
09-13 11:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x6da0a5…
09-13 11:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xee363a…
09-13 10:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xa67671…
09-13 10:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	19	93¢	$17	0x9a2e0b…
09-13 10:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xa52705…
09-13 10:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xa41968…
09-13 10:43:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	496	10¢	$50	0x6b4bb1…
09-10 13:09:10	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	496	15¢	$74	0x75dffd…
09-09 13:43:51	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3,357	4¢	$139	0xa52cfb…
07-27 04:03:40	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	112	12¢	$14	0x1b84c3…
07-27 04:03:06	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	SELL	23	59¢	$13	0x3ce3df…
07-25 20:38:21	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3,357	5¢	$158	0xda431e…
07-21 05:42:48	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	23	52¢	$12	0x6e8df0…
07-11 23:00:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0xe60810…
07-08 09:31:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x48e54a…
07-06 12:26:28	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0xa8477a…
07-05 06:00:10	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	31	95¢	$29	0x992438…
06-30 07:39:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0x11b70a…
06-29 18:46:16	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xcf8244…
06-22 08:00:50	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xc3c91a…