Frivolous-Tree — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

27.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$972

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$22

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 10-22 09:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

56% 46% +$5

Politics

33% 0% $0

Crypto

6% 100% +$0

Sports

5% 67% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		-22	-$22	100¢	$-22	$0	05-19 06:40
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		-22	$0	0¢	$-0	+$0	05-19 06:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	3	$110	55	55	+0	No	$0	06-30 06:48
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$108	54	54	+0	No	$0	09-15 03:40
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	3	$106	53	53	+0	No	$0	02-04 08:43
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?	2	$102	51	51	+0	open	—	07-27 08:02
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$84	42	42	+0	open	—	10-16 08:04
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	3	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	04-10 11:21
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	2	$62	31	31	+0	No	$0	08-07 08:31
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-07-27?	1	$33	63	0	+63	No	-$33	07-27 08:01
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score	1	$26	57	0	+57	Yes	-$26	09-15 03:39
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	1	$24	37	0	+37	Yes	+$13	06-09 08:22
Spread: Steelers (-2.5)	1	$24	47	0	+47	Steelers	-$24	10-16 08:03
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 8?	1	$23	37	0	+37	No	+$15	08-07 08:31
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$22	0	44	-44	open	—	05-19 06:40
fifwc col prt 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	1	$21	40	0	+40	Under	+$19	06-25 07:06
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$20	32	0	+32	Yes	+$12	05-12 11:13
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 2pt5	1	$20	61	0	+61	Over	-$20	06-30 06:47
lol al jdg 2026 08 14	1	$18	32	0	+32	Anyone's Legend	+$14	08-14 01:57
FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5	1	$16	28	0	+28	Under	+$12	08-26 11:14
xrp above 2pt6 on january 21	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	01-19 06:09
will solana dip to 20 march 23 29	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	03-23 12:41
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)	1	$15	27	0	+27	Thunder	+$12	10-22 09:27
will ethereum dip to 1600 april 6 12	2	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	04-10 11:21
Cavaliers vs. 76ers	1	$13	22	0	+22	76ers	+$9	10-22 09:34
will bitcoin dip to 78k january 19 25	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	01-22 08:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 09:34:20	Cavaliers vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	22	59¢	$13	0x8672bc…
10-22 09:27:42	Spread: Thunder (-7.5)	Thunder	BUY	27	54¢	$15	0x84ce01…
10-16 08:04:10	Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x02579a…
10-16 08:03:36	Spread: Steelers (-2.5)	Buccaneers	BUY	47	50¢	$24	0x828505…
10-16 08:02:46	Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xbefdca…
09-15 03:40:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0xd99a3b…
09-15 03:39:58	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	57	45¢	$26	0xdd2507…
09-15 03:38:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x721271…
08-26 11:14:54	FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	28	57¢	$16	0xa68e7b…
08-14 01:57:06	lol al jdg 2026 08 14	Anyone's Legend	BUY	32	57¢	$18	0x377695…
08-07 08:31:48	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x933910…
08-07 08:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	37	61¢	$23	0x046757…
08-07 08:29:57	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x17bb2f…
07-27 08:02:34	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x768541…
07-27 08:01:55	Will BK Hacken win on 2026-07-27?	Yes	BUY	63	52¢	$33	0x8fbe18…
07-27 07:51:34	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x5a5313…
06-30 06:48:02	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x422b97…
06-30 06:47:26	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x5c754a…
06-30 06:46:14	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xfb1764…
06-30 06:45:23	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb38d6c…
06-25 07:06:44	fifwc col prt 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x410297…
06-09 08:22:51	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	37	64¢	$24	0x9d7ea5…
05-19 06:40:30	Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x13eaa6…
05-19 06:40:02	Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0x4f0368…
05-12 11:13:44	Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	32	64¢	$20	0x51396b…
04-10 11:21:35	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x88a867…
04-10 11:21:27	will ethereum dip to 1600 april 6 12	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe4c4c7…
04-10 11:21:21	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x289ca2…
04-10 11:21:15	will ethereum dip to 1600 april 6 12	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x83e3d7…
04-10 11:21:07	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x073797…
03-23 12:41:51	will solana dip to 20 march 23 29	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x98fe70…
02-04 08:43:28	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x31f3c1…
02-04 08:43:20	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xb1df09…
02-04 08:42:52	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x780212…
01-22 08:42:00	will bitcoin dip to 78k january 19 25	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xb1a423…
01-19 06:09:22	xrp above 2pt6 on january 21	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x224459…