Sneaky-Candidacy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

117

Trades

141

lifetime

Volume

$1.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-28 06:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Politics

49% 85% +$62

Other

29% 94% +$1

Crypto

18% 100% +$1

Tech

5% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$242	127	127	+0	open	—	10-28 06:16
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$132	66	66	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 03:27
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	2	$118	59	59	+0	No	+$0	08-14 17:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$99	51	51	+0	No	+$0	08-25 14:11
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$67	128	0	+128	Yes	+$61	10-25 23:06
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	1	$66	66	0	+66	No	+$0	10-06 07:22
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	1	$65	66	0	+66	Yes	+$1	10-08 08:35
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$62	62	0	+62	Yes	+$0	08-05 01:12
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 14:37
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$59	59	0	+59	No	+$0	08-15 11:28
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$58	58	0	+58	Yes	+$0	09-15 23:31
will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	1	$57	57	0	+57	No	+$0	08-01 01:40
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$55	56	0	+56	No	+$0	08-17 10:28
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$53	53	0	+53	Yes	+$0	08-21 02:22
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$47	47	0	+47	Yes	+$0	07-31 07:10
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	2	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$0	08-31 20:20
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	09-01 01:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	2	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	04-28 19:13
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	08-31 16:51
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	09-28 16:22
us x iran ceasefire continues through september 25 20260917	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	09-27 01:26
will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	1	$26	26	0	+26	Yes	+$0	03-31 05:20
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-30 14:27
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	05-13 19:47
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	10-01 04:02
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	09-20 06:59
msft above 450 on february 27 2026	1	$15	16	0	+16	No	+$0	02-25 00:07
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	05-29 20:04
will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	2	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	01-19 10:11
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	01-24 03:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 06:16:16	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	127	98¢	$124	0xdbaf3c…
10-27 20:55:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	127	93¢	$118	0xc89cdc…
10-25 23:06:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	61	85¢	$52	0x9e0fe9…
10-23 23:51:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	95	0¢	$0	0xab8df5…
10-23 23:51:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x216ae2…
10-23 23:51:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x0dc489…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	67	23¢	$15	0x5b4e79…
10-08 08:35:17	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0xec4b57…
10-06 07:22:55	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xa8fcd8…
10-05 03:27:38	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0x6ac20b…
10-04 23:53:10	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x362313…
10-01 04:02:53	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x9b92b3…
09-28 16:22:36	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xaba59a…
09-27 01:26:06	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 25 20260917	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x7443c9…
09-26 22:21:14	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9019b4…
09-25 03:50:15	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x207993…
09-23 15:17:08	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x910756…
09-23 07:15:59	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3fe2af…
09-23 00:13:49	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in September?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x95146f…
09-22 11:36:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x303b19…
09-20 06:59:34	Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x59112a…
09-15 23:31:03	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0x7e5034…
09-11 23:50:55	Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x154155…
09-01 01:08:58	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x9e063e…
08-31 20:20:52	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x068c86…
08-31 16:51:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf5a429…
08-31 14:37:16	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x648ff4…
08-27 20:19:33	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x44ec24…
08-26 21:17:04	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$21	0xb3e104…
08-25 15:56:39	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x1560c8…
08-25 14:11:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	51	96¢	$50	0xe790cd…
08-23 20:59:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	51	96¢	$49	0x479e45…
08-22 12:00:03	will xauusd dip to 3400 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xb5fde0…
08-21 02:22:27	Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x684213…
08-20 16:41:00	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x77f853…
08-20 16:18:22	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0xa61548…
08-17 10:28:55	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x10fe4d…
08-17 08:34:52	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe2eab5…
08-16 22:00:10	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0x69390c…
08-16 19:30:57	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb804dd…
08-16 18:40:13	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc9a016…
08-15 11:28:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	59	99¢	$59	0x76954c…
08-15 01:45:43	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x740cd1…
08-14 17:15:15	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x530cb2…
08-11 14:20:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x342e5f…
08-11 14:20:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2b56c8…
08-11 14:18:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf7b9ae…
08-10 10:59:52	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	59	99¢	$59	0x957bd1…
08-10 08:54:52	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0cbb65…
08-07 01:23:18	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x05f661…
08-05 01:12:12	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0x995291…
08-03 23:36:11	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfe0169…
08-01 01:40:15	will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0x463c3a…
07-31 07:10:18	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0xcfe51f…
07-29 03:33:30	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x59fcf8…
07-28 15:46:50	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026 367	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe59c87…
07-28 06:31:42	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc4c063…
07-26 23:00:25	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1ad208…
07-26 14:21:40	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf18994…
07-25 09:56:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x11aba9…
07-24 22:21:21	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe43218…
07-24 00:22:04	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbdf8c1…
07-21 16:44:31	will ethereum dip to 1000 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa396f6…
07-01 22:31:59	israeli forces enter beirut by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd4de64…
05-30 14:27:38	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x15de45…
05-29 20:04:17	Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x736147…
05-25 16:33:30	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe2a778…
05-13 19:47:05	Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x2b51c7…
05-12 06:48:35	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd957ec…
05-10 18:45:10	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6aff79…
05-10 04:22:52	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf22af4…
05-09 23:43:21	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7b8b65…
05-09 16:24:17	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3b8419…
05-08 08:28:50	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa3c518…
05-08 05:54:24	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9c462f…
05-08 00:35:34	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xac8c90…
05-07 13:31:51	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa958b5…
05-07 08:10:19	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe426b8…
05-07 06:55:57	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4d4b50…
05-07 00:22:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x610d28…
05-06 08:11:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x90d024…
05-05 21:29:18	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x282142…
05-05 19:58:44	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x27be0b…
05-05 12:22:40	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb69b3a…
04-28 19:13:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x6a6305…
04-26 17:07:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xce71e1…
04-21 07:46:54	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdd24e3…
04-20 06:31:54	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb51f76…
04-19 20:21:26	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x62a9a1…
04-19 12:22:20	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe65699…
04-18 17:32:26	Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xeeceb2…
04-18 00:36:18	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xec0fef…
04-17 16:09:50	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $180 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x345f57…
04-17 08:12:56	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc96bb4…
04-16 18:04:50	Will BNB reach $900 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x05674f…
04-15 14:09:56	Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x05790e…
04-13 03:45:01	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x77d7a2…
04-05 12:19:41	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x116666…
03-31 05:20:39	will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x8dbe0f…
03-29 22:12:36	will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc24861…