Critical-Paper — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$17.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$479

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 07-02 11:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 100% +$12

Other

0% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 10?	1	$2.1K	2,088	0	+2,088	No	+$4	05-11 02:58
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 9?	1	$2.1K	2,080	0	+2,080	No	+$4	05-10 02:16
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 8?	1	$2.1K	2,073	0	+2,073	No	+$4	05-09 02:45
ethereum above 2900 on january 19	1	$1.1K	1,096	0	+1,096	open	—	01-19 02:35
will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 18	1	$1.1K	1,093	0	+1,093	open	—	01-18 01:48
ethereum above 3500 on january 17	1	$1.1K	1,091	0	+1,091	open	—	01-17 03:02
ethereum above 3000 on january 16	1	$1.1K	1,088	0	+1,088	open	—	01-16 02:25
will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 15	1	$1.1K	1,088	0	+1,088	open	—	01-15 03:13
will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on january 14	1	$1.1K	1,085	0	+1,085	open	—	01-14 02:55
will the price of ethereum be between 3500 3600 on january 13	1	$1.1K	1,082	0	+1,082	open	—	01-13 02:54
ethereum above 2800 on january 12	1	$1.1K	1,081	0	+1,081	open	—	01-12 02:47
will the price of bitcoin be between 96000 98000 on january 11	1	$1.1K	1,080	0	+1,080	open	—	01-11 02:30
will the price of ethereum be between 2800 2900 on january 10	1	$1.1K	1,078	0	+1,078	open	—	01-10 09:28
amzn above 285 on june 12 2026	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	06-09 08:47
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of May 18 2026?	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	05-20 09:04
bitcoin above 76k on february 7	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	02-06 07:53
bitcoin above 64k on july 2 2026	1	$13	13	0	+13	open	—	07-02 11:17
bitcoin above 64k on march 27	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	03-26 06:03
bitcoin above 64k on march 13	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	03-12 02:40
will bitcoin dip to 62k march 2 8	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	03-07 14:00
bill clinton in jail by december 31	2	$11	6	5	+1	open	—	01-27 10:02
nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026	2	$11	6	5	+1	open	—	01-21 14:19
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	04-17 03:43
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	06-25 09:29
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-21 06:14
will iranian officials visit the white house by february 28	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	02-25 02:39
will bitcoin dip to 74k on april 20	1	$4	2,068	0	+2,068	open	—	04-21 02:01
trump out as president by march 31	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	02-11 03:44
will the price of ethereum be between 3000 3100 on january 31	1	$2	1,076	0	+1,076	open	—	01-31 02:33
will the price of ethereum be between 3200 3300 on january 27	1	$1	1,073	0	+1,073	open	—	01-27 02:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 11:17:23	bitcoin above 64k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x53da91…
06-25 09:29:14	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1aee45…
06-21 06:14:59	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4a0cc9…
06-09 08:47:39	amzn above 285 on june 12 2026	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x481478…
05-20 09:04:12	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x594a6f…
05-11 02:58:14	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 10?	No	BUY	2,088	100¢	$2,083	0x868ae2…
05-10 02:16:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	2,080	100¢	$2,075	0xee2f28…
05-09 02:45:01	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 8?	No	BUY	2,073	100¢	$2,068	0x2a8994…
04-21 02:01:40	will bitcoin dip to 74k on april 20	Yes	BUY	2,068	0¢	$4	0x4b8dc6…
04-17 03:43:44	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x253afd…
04-10 14:18:37	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x51a250…
03-26 06:03:29	bitcoin above 64k on march 27	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xeaee56…
03-12 02:40:23	bitcoin above 64k on march 13	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xded93c…
03-07 14:00:45	will bitcoin dip to 62k march 2 8	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x6e94a0…
02-25 02:39:28	will iranian officials visit the white house by february 28	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x552260…
02-11 03:44:15	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x53ab3e…
02-06 07:53:25	bitcoin above 76k on february 7	No	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0x99d951…
02-02 13:18:24	will msft close above 480 week february 6 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5b4520…
01-31 08:33:44	will the iranian regime fall by january 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbfce13…
01-31 02:33:48	will the price of ethereum be between 3000 3100 on january 31	Yes	BUY	1,076	0¢	$2	0x8175fd…
01-30 09:44:24	will russia capture all of prymorske by january 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2849b1…
01-27 10:02:29	bill clinton in jail by december 31	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x025f5a…
01-27 02:48:01	will the price of ethereum be between 3200 3300 on january 27	Yes	BUY	1,073	0¢	$1	0xe2ace0…
01-26 12:46:01	bill clinton in jail by december 31	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xba65cb…
01-21 14:19:54	nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x971d63…
01-20 09:27:12	nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5489e6…
01-19 02:35:32	ethereum above 2900 on january 19	Yes	BUY	1,096	100¢	$1,094	0xe74f32…
01-18 01:48:22	will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 18	No	BUY	1,093	100¢	$1,091	0x23c33b…
01-17 03:02:02	ethereum above 3500 on january 17	No	BUY	1,091	100¢	$1,089	0x344cf5…
01-16 02:25:28	ethereum above 3000 on january 16	Yes	BUY	1,088	100¢	$1,087	0x3668f3…
01-15 03:13:26	will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 15	No	BUY	1,088	100¢	$1,085	0x9003d7…
01-14 02:55:52	will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on january 14	No	BUY	1,085	100¢	$1,083	0xac3067…
01-13 02:54:41	will the price of ethereum be between 3500 3600 on january 13	No	BUY	1,082	100¢	$1,081	0x6daab1…
01-12 02:47:12	ethereum above 2800 on january 12	Yes	BUY	1,081	100¢	$1,080	0xf43712…
01-11 02:30:24	will the price of bitcoin be between 96000 98000 on january 11	No	BUY	1,080	100¢	$1,079	0xf77739…
01-10 09:28:36	will the price of ethereum be between 2800 2900 on january 10	No	BUY	1,078	100¢	$1,076	0x074910…