Powerless-Newsletter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$927

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

68.2%

Resolved

248

Trades

1,666

lifetime

Volume

$25.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-07

last 08-04 21:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Politics

60% 67% -$1,255

Other

37% 76% +$339

Tech

2% 67% -$18

Sports

0% 100% +$8

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-04).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No		+7	$5	94¢	$6	+$1	05-18 11:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	87	$1.1K	686	678	+8	No	-$76	05-26 08:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	23	$636	376	376	+0	No	-$1	04-21 05:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	3	$617	335	335	+0	No	+$7	03-29 12:03
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	13	$603	513	359	+154	No	+$48	04-09 02:15
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	17	$596	366	366	+0	Yes	+$15	06-10 14:44
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	5	$505	285	311	-27	No	-$5	04-07 11:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	38	$466	482	436	+46	No	-$95	05-26 09:29
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	40	$431	310	175	+135	No	+$27	04-24 19:22
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	4	$373	456	184	+272	Yes	-$156	04-03 07:23
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	16	$368	236	149	+87	No	+$5	05-25 08:10
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	14	$367	647	20	+627	Yes	-$340	06-10 22:53
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	21	$363	256	189	+67	No	+$13	06-12 05:11
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	15	$361	229	158	+71	No	-$4	05-25 03:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	30	$360	352	320	+31	No	+$2	06-28 11:37
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	32	$355	295	101	+195	No	+$20	05-26 10:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	4	$348	369	0	+369	No	+$21	06-02 14:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	12	$345	258	183	+75	No	+$39	05-26 00:06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	16	$338	195	160	+35	No	+$7	05-25 07:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$334	522	522	+0	Yes	+$21	03-31 06:12
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	5	$308	163	163	+0	No	+$5	04-05 03:32
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	19	$293	187	151	+36	No	+$31	05-23 04:22
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	8	$289	252	111	+141	No	+$68	04-04 15:46
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	20	$286	423	171	+252	No	+$34	05-25 07:24
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	18	$279	188	158	+30	No	+$34	06-16 05:14
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	17	$270	347	0	+347	Yes	-$270	06-10 21:39
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	18	$264	146	146	+0	Yes	-$15	06-12 10:26
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	6	$261	167	133	+34	No	+$14	06-09 22:27
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	10	$261	294	91	+203	Yes	+$67	04-08 09:47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	22	$254	206	118	+88	No	+$28	05-23 14:11
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	20	$243	164	118	+46	No	+$29	04-10 19:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 21:46:44	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xff9b8c…
08-04 16:55:51	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xc87c7c…
08-04 01:57:18	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	32	93¢	$30	0x38069b…
08-02 18:53:24	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xdc02a0…
08-02 14:08:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	67	34¢	$23	0xbe9342…
08-01 23:04:24	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	15	33¢	$5	0x4f5ce2…
08-01 22:49:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	72	33¢	$24	0x71d5ed…
08-01 22:44:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xb603de…
08-01 22:39:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	56	34¢	$19	0xca86de…
08-01 22:39:00	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$11	0x98e869…
08-01 22:39:00	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	16	93¢	$15	0x6e2b43…
08-01 20:52:24	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	35	91¢	$32	0xe0dac4…
08-01 20:49:48	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	47	92¢	$43	0x4d6972…
08-01 19:34:27	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x7e7303…
06-28 11:37:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x6583f9…
06-28 11:36:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	118	65¢	$77	0x089f12…
06-28 11:02:50	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	108	91¢	$98	0xc6e40b…
06-16 11:35:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0xc3a9ae…
06-16 10:14:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0xfa9c1e…
06-16 05:39:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x7ea55f…
06-16 05:14:03	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	62	95¢	$59	0x3194ca…
06-16 01:30:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd87f3d…
06-16 01:30:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc21167…
06-16 01:30:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbf7508…
06-16 01:30:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x69b250…
06-16 01:30:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x3403df…
06-16 01:07:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x5b2a99…
06-16 00:50:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xfe987e…
06-16 00:13:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	3¢	$1	0xdeab87…
06-16 00:12:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	16	38¢	$6	0x26f381…
06-15 23:31:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x9b8818…
06-15 22:55:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0xb6f76e…
06-15 20:49:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x6313d8…
06-13 09:33:13	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0x66636e…
06-13 07:26:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xefc84b…
06-13 06:53:09	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0xc0d23f…
06-13 05:53:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	23	51¢	$12	0x3264ba…
06-13 02:13:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0xb24180…
06-13 01:39:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xc25df7…
06-13 01:36:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x113293…
06-13 01:34:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0x8510be…
06-13 00:51:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$9	0xabd77f…
06-13 00:36:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x3d007c…
06-13 00:36:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x9ee41e…
06-13 00:36:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xbcaa50…
06-12 20:05:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	23	51¢	$12	0xf4dd87…
06-12 20:03:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x1f897f…
06-12 15:33:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	18	79¢	$14	0xcc0f30…
06-12 11:41:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0x4d5ea6…
06-12 11:21:15	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x241e53…
06-12 11:18:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0xeda7e9…
06-12 10:26:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	19	85¢	$16	0x0cd4f4…
06-12 10:00:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	27	77¢	$20	0x52adc6…
06-12 09:49:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	19	88¢	$16	0xcc1bda…
06-12 09:40:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	6	86¢	$6	0x8ceb7a…
06-12 09:35:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0xa9fada…
06-12 09:35:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0xc9317d…
06-12 08:40:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x2ed5cb…
06-12 05:46:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x030c70…
06-12 05:11:33	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xd132df…
06-12 01:17:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$6	0x95671f…
06-12 00:39:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x30dd81…
06-12 00:39:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x1a18a6…
06-11 20:44:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xc67bb7…
06-11 17:31:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	22	82¢	$18	0x97563b…
06-11 17:31:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0xd77cf1…
06-11 17:30:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x5036b2…
06-11 17:29:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	11	94¢	$11	0x1fbaca…
06-11 17:28:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0x202c17…
06-11 17:25:24	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	48	81¢	$39	0x212e31…
06-11 17:10:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xc62798…
06-11 17:05:30	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	104	80¢	$83	0x40e0fa…
06-11 16:49:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0xa5847d…
06-11 09:36:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x15991b…
06-11 07:38:15	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0xaef40e…
06-11 07:37:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x771eef…
06-11 06:57:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x90711b…
06-11 04:34:19	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xc97a4c…
06-11 04:34:03	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$1	0xf435c3…
06-11 03:35:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0xb819ee…
06-11 01:42:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$12	0xd66fef…
06-11 00:33:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xfa0a3f…
06-11 00:30:00	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x83c9bf…
06-10 23:52:55	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x8ffe4b…
06-10 23:29:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xae11f2…
06-10 22:53:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	20	68¢	$13	0xc8dc65…
06-10 21:39:00	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x3ac26e…
06-10 20:52:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$7	0x5cb69e…
06-10 20:39:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x605983…
06-10 20:14:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x78c575…
06-10 18:42:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xa5de58…
06-10 18:38:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x281670…
06-10 18:37:30	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x69d5aa…
06-10 18:22:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x070771…
06-10 17:27:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xe824d6…
06-10 17:16:15	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xc0029d…
06-10 16:49:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0x415f3b…
06-10 16:13:00	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x7a9d44…
06-10 15:54:24	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x6e9c29…
06-10 15:48:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1334cd…