Powerless-Newsletter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,455

lifetime

Volume

$22.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 06-28 11:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

59% 67% $-14

Other

39% 67% $-12

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 88 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	85	$1.0K	686	639	+47	open	—	05-26 08:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	23	$636	376	376	+0	open	—	04-21 05:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	3	$617	335	335	+0	open	—	03-29 12:03
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	13	$603	513	359	+154	open	—	04-09 02:15
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	17	$596	366	366	+0	open	—	06-10 14:44
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	5	$505	285	311	-27	open	—	04-07 11:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	38	$466	482	436	+46	open	—	05-26 09:29
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	40	$431	310	175	+135	open	—	04-24 19:22
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	4	$373	456	184	+272	open	—	04-03 07:23
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	21	$363	256	189	+67	open	—	06-12 05:11
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	13	$343	603	20	+583	open	—	06-10 22:53
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	14	$338	229	134	+95	open	—	05-25 03:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	16	$338	195	160	+35	open	—	05-25 07:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$334	522	522	+0	open	—	03-31 06:12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	30	$330	279	90	+190	open	—	05-26 10:37
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	12	$320	236	98	+138	open	—	05-25 08:10
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	5	$308	163	163	+0	open	—	04-05 03:32
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	19	$293	187	151	+36	open	—	05-23 04:22
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	8	$289	252	111	+141	open	—	04-04 15:46
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	18	$279	188	158	+30	open	—	06-16 05:14
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	17	$270	347	0	+347	open	—	06-10 21:39
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	18	$264	146	146	+0	open	—	06-12 10:26
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	6	$261	167	133	+34	open	—	06-09 22:27
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	10	$261	294	91	+203	open	—	04-08 09:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	3	$255	271	0	+271	open	—	06-02 14:19
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	20	$243	164	118	+46	open	—	04-10 19:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	20	$240	186	118	+68	open	—	05-23 14:11
internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	19	$230	207	62	+145	open	—	04-16 11:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	13	$218	206	142	+63	open	—	04-07 14:00
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	5	$215	136	136	-0	open	—	04-16 02:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 11:37:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x6583f9…
06-28 11:36:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	118	65¢	$77	0x089f12…
06-28 11:02:50	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	108	91¢	$98	0xc6e40b…
06-16 11:35:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0xc3a9ae…
06-16 10:14:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0xfa9c1e…
06-16 05:39:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x7ea55f…
06-16 05:14:03	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	62	95¢	$59	0x3194ca…
06-16 01:07:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x5b2a99…
06-16 00:50:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xfe987e…
06-16 00:13:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	3¢	$1	0xdeab87…
06-16 00:12:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	16	38¢	$6	0x26f381…
06-15 22:55:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0xb6f76e…
06-15 20:49:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x6313d8…
06-13 09:33:13	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0x66636e…
06-13 07:26:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xefc84b…
06-13 06:53:09	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0xc0d23f…
06-13 05:53:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	23	51¢	$12	0x3264ba…
06-13 02:13:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0xb24180…
06-13 01:39:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xc25df7…
06-13 01:36:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x113293…
06-13 01:34:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0x8510be…
06-12 20:05:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	23	51¢	$12	0xf4dd87…
06-12 20:03:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x1f897f…
06-12 15:33:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	18	79¢	$14	0xcc0f30…
06-12 11:41:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0x4d5ea6…
06-12 11:21:15	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x241e53…
06-12 11:18:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0xeda7e9…
06-12 10:26:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	19	85¢	$16	0x0cd4f4…
06-12 10:00:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	27	77¢	$20	0x52adc6…
06-12 09:49:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	19	88¢	$16	0xcc1bda…
06-12 09:40:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	6	86¢	$6	0x8ceb7a…
06-12 09:35:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0xa9fada…
06-12 09:35:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0xc9317d…
06-12 08:40:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x2ed5cb…
06-12 05:46:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x030c70…
06-12 05:11:33	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xd132df…
06-12 01:17:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$6	0x95671f…
06-12 00:39:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x30dd81…
06-12 00:39:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x1a18a6…
06-11 20:44:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xc67bb7…
06-11 17:31:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	22	82¢	$18	0x97563b…
06-11 17:31:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0xd77cf1…
06-11 17:30:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x5036b2…
06-11 17:29:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	11	94¢	$11	0x1fbaca…
06-11 17:28:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0x202c17…
06-11 17:25:24	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	48	81¢	$39	0x212e31…
06-11 17:10:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xc62798…
06-11 17:05:30	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	104	80¢	$83	0x40e0fa…
06-11 16:49:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0xa5847d…
06-11 09:36:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x15991b…
06-11 07:38:15	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0xaef40e…
06-11 07:37:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x771eef…
06-11 06:57:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x90711b…
06-11 04:34:19	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xc97a4c…
06-11 04:34:03	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$1	0xf435c3…
06-11 03:35:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0xb819ee…
06-11 01:42:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$12	0xd66fef…
06-11 00:33:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xfa0a3f…
06-11 00:30:00	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x83c9bf…
06-10 23:52:55	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x8ffe4b…
06-10 23:29:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xae11f2…
06-10 22:53:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	20	68¢	$13	0xc8dc65…
06-10 21:39:00	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x3ac26e…
06-10 20:52:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$7	0x5cb69e…
06-10 20:39:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x605983…
06-10 20:14:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x78c575…
06-10 18:42:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xa5de58…
06-10 18:38:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x281670…
06-10 18:37:30	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x69d5aa…
06-10 18:22:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x070771…
06-10 17:27:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xe824d6…
06-10 17:16:15	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xc0029d…
06-10 16:49:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0x415f3b…
06-10 16:13:00	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x7a9d44…
06-10 15:54:24	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x6e9c29…
06-10 15:48:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1334cd…
06-10 15:08:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	13	95¢	$13	0x387dc6…
06-10 14:56:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xf36f19…
06-10 14:44:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	11	87¢	$10	0x776f06…
06-10 14:33:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0xdf4e1a…
06-10 13:16:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	15	88¢	$13	0xe89a9c…
06-10 12:36:01	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xc5b60c…
06-10 12:31:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x6da1d1…
06-10 12:31:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x5ed695…
06-10 12:27:46	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xa83a44…
06-10 12:18:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x839765…
06-10 12:04:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xd832f2…
06-10 11:47:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x716d17…
06-10 11:37:54	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x1944ed…
06-10 11:37:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	28	88¢	$25	0xc1e689…
06-10 11:37:30	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x3e9435…
06-10 11:30:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	18	96¢	$18	0x7bdd91…
06-10 11:23:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xb46f38…
06-10 11:17:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xc24b76…
06-10 11:08:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	26	86¢	$23	0x9994fa…
06-10 11:08:45	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	21	74¢	$16	0xa6efbe…
06-10 11:06:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0x96ccc0…
06-10 10:57:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x77cd43…
06-10 10:22:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x4095c4…
06-10 09:54:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	36	90¢	$32	0x71cce1…