Cultivated-Discretion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.93K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved

188

Trades

644

lifetime

Volume

$63.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 06-02 11:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Crypto

45% 64% -$1,885

Politics

31% 47% +$61

Other

19% 49% -$82

Sports

4% 57% -$19

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$8

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-02).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	17	$8.2K	4,345	4,345	+0	No	+$119	02-23 11:34
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	7	$3.2K	1,660	1,660	+0	No	+$3	02-23 22:53
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	5	$2.4K	1,809	848	+961	No	-$3	02-22 23:58
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	9	$2.0K	2,163	2,163	+0	Yes	-$51	05-28 16:56
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$1.7K	16,969	16,969	+0	No	-$17	05-30 15:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-23 11:30 UTC	43	$1.6K	869	867	+2	Down	+$66	02-23 11:42
spx opens up or down on february 20 2026	15	$1.5K	1,216	1,216	+0	Down	-$195	02-20 13:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 22:15 UTC	31	$1.5K	887	879	+8	Up	+$171	02-20 22:19
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	4	$1.3K	1,654	1,654	+0	Yes	+$101	02-27 17:50
us issues do not travel warning for jalisco state by february 28 2026 348	10	$1.1K	633	633	+0	No	-$13	02-23 18:43
spx up or down on february 17 2026	4	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Up	+$24	02-17 17:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 13:35 UTC	3	$1.1K	540	540	+0	Up	+$8	02-17 13:40
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$978	521	521	+0	No	-$4	02-19 10:50
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$901	454	454	+0	No	-$1	05-15 11:24
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?	8	$891	448	448	+0	No	+$4	05-14 20:14
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$882	442	442	+0	No	$0	05-14 09:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 20:20 UTC	5	$875	482	479	+3	Up	+$77	02-23 20:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	3	$792	553	440	+113	Up	+$79	05-28 16:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$778	390	390	+0	No	+$0	05-15 08:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 19:40 UTC	1	$737	1,358	0	+1,358	Up	-$737	02-25 19:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 13:40 UTC	3	$692	959	427	+532	Down	-$5	02-17 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	2	$649	419	419	+0	Up	+$181	05-14 16:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	2	$606	309	309	+0	Down	+$6	05-14 09:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$603	306	306	+0	Down	+$3	05-26 09:35
bitcoin above 64k on february 17	2	$602	302	302	+0	Yes	+$2	02-17 17:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 13:50 UTC	2	$571	310	309	+1	Up	+$42	02-24 13:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	6	$561	289	289	+0	No	+$3	05-27 07:21
bitcoin above 70k on february 17	2	$542	274	274	+0	No	+$4	02-17 17:02
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	2	$530	541	541	+0	Yes	+$0	02-24 13:54
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	4	$515	468	468	+0	Yes	+$0	05-28 08:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 11:00:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	923	1¢	$12	0x7e7786…
06-01 08:37:03	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x6fe588…
06-01 08:26:31	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x51fcac…
06-01 08:16:36	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x66cf6f…
05-31 12:22:56	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x963950…
05-31 12:15:52	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$10	0x3643d6…
05-31 10:56:16	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	62	0¢	$0	0x2fb743…
05-31 04:08:40	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xcb17e0…
05-31 03:58:54	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	357	0¢	$0	0x7f2370…
05-30 18:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	393	56¢	$220	0x634794…
05-30 18:21:06	LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Team Vitality	SELL	348	66¢	$230	0x182739…
05-30 18:19:39	LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Team Vitality	BUY	348	67¢	$233	0x07caeb…
05-30 18:18:52	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x00c3e6…
05-30 18:13:35	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	421	59¢	$250	0x0fdfa7…
05-30 18:07:19	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	62	93¢	$58	0x0ab30f…
05-30 18:07:13	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	74	78¢	$58	0xf430fb…
05-30 18:07:10	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	78	74¢	$58	0x2a77b8…
05-30 18:06:35	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	77	76¢	$58	0xeb493c…
05-30 18:05:14	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-30 18:00 UTC	Down	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0xb1f46f…
05-30 18:04:27	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-30 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	98	59¢	$58	0x7a893e…
05-30 15:40:47	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	17	38¢	$6	0x9b9277…
05-30 15:39:47	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	506	38¢	$192	0x2ef8e7…
05-30 15:38:56	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	26	92¢	$24	0x04c478…
05-30 15:38:51	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xc355da…
05-30 15:38:41	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xf0ee5e…
05-30 15:38:41	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xe3bf56…
05-30 15:38:35	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xff2074…
05-30 15:38:35	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x888ab1…
05-30 15:38:35	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x8192ec…
05-30 15:38:35	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0x098d97…
05-30 15:38:32	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xe77d76…
05-30 15:38:27	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	21	92¢	$19	0x73343e…
05-30 15:38:20	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xf09e98…
05-30 15:35:30	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	120	48¢	$58	0xb4cea3…
05-30 15:34:58	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	16,969	5¢	$865	0x4036b5…
05-30 15:34:23	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	545	38¢	$207	0x21bfe9…
05-30 15:33:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	235	88¢	$207	0x58b001…
05-30 14:37:15	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	4,111	0¢	$4	0x218e1f…
05-30 13:31:59	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	84	88¢	$74	0x85dce0…
05-30 13:31:38	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	118	64¢	$76	0xcce009…
05-30 11:25:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	76	86¢	$65	0x5472fe…
05-30 09:29:38	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	15	65¢	$10	0x5bcbf6…
05-30 04:42:19	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xc1b5e7…
05-29 21:28:45	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	62	65¢	$40	0xab8dca…
05-29 19:16:01	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xea9f9d…
05-29 09:44:42	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	31	75¢	$23	0xfb9b83…
05-29 09:44:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x573b69…
05-29 09:43:54	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x5eec82…
05-28 17:03:26	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	16,199	5¢	$842	0xbf3627…
05-28 16:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	440	99¢	$436	0x0fc5f1…
05-28 16:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	440	68¢	$300	0xfecb6e…
05-28 16:56:29	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	1,687	45¢	$759	0x9a9a59…
05-28 16:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	113	50¢	$56	0x1f086a…
05-28 16:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	237	26¢	$62	0x2bc985…
05-28 16:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	237	66¢	$157	0xd51399…
05-28 16:47:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x423b17…
05-28 16:47:16	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5,371	3¢	$153	0x636a47…
05-28 09:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	64	51¢	$32	0x973ad0…
05-28 09:24:12	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	17,251	0¢	$35	0xa9a34d…
05-28 09:23:09	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	770	5¢	$40	0x356f0b…
05-28 08:18:15	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	75	55¢	$41	0xb09b8b…
05-28 07:16:20	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	119	64¢	$76	0x7471cc…
05-28 07:15:59	ITF Tsaghkadzor: Mirjana Jovanovic vs Ani Amiraghyan	Ani Amiraghyan	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xb15990…
05-28 07:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	119	99¢	$118	0x7069eb…
05-28 07:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x2b4cce…
05-28 07:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x09d81b…
05-28 07:05:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x059388…
05-28 07:05:05	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	394	55¢	$217	0x001fde…
05-27 13:45:12	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5,371	3¢	$140	0xa74d9f…
05-27 12:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x723313…
05-27 12:50:10	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	42,098	0¢	$50	0x025e99…
05-27 12:48:53	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	16,667	0¢	$50	0xbe2189…
05-27 12:47:30	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	152	99¢	$150	0x1f9725…
05-27 12:47:18	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x3b3e85…
05-27 11:22:17	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	539	48¢	$259	0x514fb4…
05-27 11:21:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	56	89¢	$49	0xe2ec61…
05-27 11:21:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	SELL	229	94¢	$216	0x500723…
05-27 11:19:48	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	456	48¢	$219	0x2f69af…
05-27 11:19:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	231	97¢	$224	0xa4abc2…
05-27 11:18:45	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	303	55¢	$167	0x69a60f…
05-27 11:18:24	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	No	SELL	169	100¢	$169	0x93b130…
05-27 07:22:00	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	470	48¢	$226	0xa2cdd1…
05-27 07:21:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	236	98¢	$231	0x080812…
05-27 07:21:08	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x3f9a88…
05-27 06:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0xb68f84…
05-27 06:37:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	29	70¢	$20	0x739501…
05-27 06:25:04	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	181	48¢	$87	0xd27089…
05-27 06:19:53	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x69de04…
05-27 06:19:49	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x169f68…
05-27 06:19:48	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x49ea21…
05-27 06:19:46	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x48086b…
05-27 06:19:41	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0x467c89…
05-27 06:17:59	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x68c2de…
05-27 06:17:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x03855f…
05-27 06:16:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x7dce3b…
05-27 06:16:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x145156…
05-27 06:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x1c5eac…
05-27 06:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x33e138…
05-27 06:15:06	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	98	65¢	$64	0x3be4e3…
05-26 21:50:49	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	165	55¢	$90	0xe8d239…