Optimistic-Ape — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$939

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

56.3%

Resolved

258

Trades

1,049

lifetime

Volume

$52.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$186

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-04 09:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 113 days

Categories

Other

36% 40% -$1,239

Politics

36% 44% +$47

Crypto

26% 93% +$107

Sports

1% 75% +$47

Tech

0% 100% +$99

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No		+197	$175	94¢	$186	+$11	10-04 09:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	17	$2.5K	1,430	1,630	-200	No	-$30	04-12 13:26
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	9	$2.2K	1,552	1,552	+0	Yes	-$296	04-09 14:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	22	$1.7K	1,990	1,990	+0	Yes	-$5	03-31 13:23
will the us invade iran by march 31	25	$1.6K	4,812	6,781	-1,969	No	+$261	03-27 07:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	19	$1.2K	928	928	+0	No	+$3	04-15 15:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	8	$1.2K	700	700	+0	No	+$0	04-20 21:06
highest temperature in seoul on april 5 2026 12c	3	$993	500	500	+0	Yes	+$3	04-05 08:00
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	3	$963	620	620	+0	No	+$4	04-12 08:20
lal osa bet 2026 04 12 osa	11	$910	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$50	04-12 12:41
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$906	632	632	+0	No	+$2	03-30 20:21
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	20	$894	876	876	+0	No	-$15	04-14 14:13
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	37	$852	812	872	-60	Yes	-$43	03-25 22:09
spx opens up or down on april 6 2026	2	$816	750	400	+350	Up	-$248	04-05 18:28
highest temperature in london on april 5 2026 13c	10	$816	600	600	+0	No	+$24	04-05 12:17
ethereum above 2700 on february 10	2	$799	400	400	+0	No	+$0	02-10 17:01
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	6	$784	994	994	+0	Yes	+$0	04-12 08:06
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	5	$761	700	700	+0	No	+$35	04-11 17:32
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	18	$751	1,060	1,260	-200	No	-$201	03-24 18:16
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	7	$674	700	700	+0	No	-$10	04-13 20:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$663	500	499	+1	No	+$1	04-28 13:34
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	7	$550	400	400	+0	No	-$2	04-17 17:26
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	7	$538	750	552	+198	No	+$120	05-23 11:05
will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 4	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	03-04 07:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	4	$482	400	400	+0	No	-$2	04-18 07:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?	11	$480	360	360	+0	Yes	+$5	04-07 21:00
bitcoin above 98k on february 3	1	$458	458	0	+458	No	+$0	02-03 11:08
bitcoin above 98k on february 2	1	$450	450	0	+450	No	+$0	02-02 09:47
highest temperature in seoul on april 3 2026 16c	6	$433	308	308	+0	No	-$4	04-02 23:46
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	4	$425	700	700	+0	Yes	-$7	03-21 08:02
any of the stolen kitkats recovered by april 5	3	$425	1,290	1,290	+0	No	-$117	04-01 07:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 09:40:05	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	197	89¢	$175	0xf1842f…
07-13 08:06:53	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x6572a8…
07-13 08:03:28	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x43fa2e…
07-13 08:03:07	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xd51d1a…
07-13 06:42:01	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0xf550a7…
07-13 06:41:46	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x8fbbf4…
06-27 13:48:55	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 27?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x102eab…
06-27 10:02:26	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?	No	SELL	37	70¢	$26	0x08615d…
06-27 09:56:55	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?	No	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x589108…
06-27 09:55:43	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xddfdd4…
06-27 09:51:08	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 27?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x83a5b4…
06-03 23:59:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x57f7b3…
06-01 15:01:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xa85c7a…
05-25 21:03:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	136	51¢	$69	0x2cb1f7…
05-25 21:01:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	64	51¢	$33	0xdd59fa…
05-25 20:57:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xa381d3…
05-23 11:05:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	350	41¢	$144	0x23c947…
05-23 09:30:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	79	43¢	$34	0x4bb66d…
05-23 09:30:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	350	40¢	$140	0x782584…
05-23 09:26:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xe74191…
05-23 09:25:39	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	119	43¢	$51	0x76a55b…
05-23 09:22:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0xc31ecd…
05-23 09:08:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	400	42¢	$168	0x38fca1…
05-21 20:44:02	Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	Yes	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0xea10da…
05-21 20:35:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0x190fad…
05-21 20:33:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0xf6b1b5…
05-21 20:27:39	Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x66f454…
05-11 20:26:17	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	9¢	$26	0x33c549…
05-11 20:19:29	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	274	40¢	$110	0x451bb1…
05-11 20:19:19	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xabc50a…
05-11 20:19:12	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x088993…
05-07 21:00:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0x0bf649…
05-07 21:00:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	68	31¢	$21	0x9ab20b…
05-07 21:00:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	97	31¢	$30	0xc13d1d…
05-07 20:59:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x5436bd…
05-07 20:58:47	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	31¢	$11	0xa4d341…
05-07 20:52:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xefd705…
05-07 20:49:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0x5a1a88…
05-07 20:47:24	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x6995e5…
05-06 18:54:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	24¢	$147	0x1b18d0…
05-06 18:49:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	29¢	$173	0xa8e4f6…
05-06 18:33:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x636e27…
05-06 18:32:07	Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12m?	Yes	SELL	30	35¢	$10	0x2fa6a4…
05-06 17:52:27	Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12m?	Yes	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x60aa4d…
05-06 17:36:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xd54695…
05-06 17:28:47	Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x2efe3d…
05-06 17:24:49	Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x4dd258…
05-06 16:58:19	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	No	SELL	350	12¢	$42	0x2d9258…
05-06 16:26:45	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	13	47¢	$6	0x1e0edb…
05-06 16:07:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	194	47¢	$91	0x36d5a4…
05-06 16:06:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0x68e7f2…
05-06 15:57:47	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	31¢	$62	0x16fbc3…
05-06 15:56:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x10e12e…
05-06 15:54:24	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xd670af…
05-06 15:52:04	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	No	BUY	300	15¢	$45	0x1c485d…
05-06 15:42:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	48¢	$48	0xab27d1…
05-06 15:42:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x3105cb…
05-06 15:42:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xa1ef2c…
05-06 15:41:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	95	48¢	$46	0x2b52c3…
05-05 16:27:30	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 60% and 70%?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xe1bee5…
05-05 16:26:32	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 60% and 70%?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xb296f3…
05-05 13:49:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	No	SELL	76	44¢	$34	0xbb723a…
05-05 13:30:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x6cda5f…
05-05 13:30:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	No	BUY	24	60¢	$14	0xab309a…
05-05 13:30:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	No	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0x77b0f3…
05-05 13:30:08	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	No	BUY	35	61¢	$21	0x5d67c9…
05-05 13:29:00	Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3?	No	SELL	40	75¢	$30	0xba8ab5…
05-05 13:28:22	Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0x88c161…
04-30 12:39:42	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0xf83488…
04-30 12:37:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x35aba6…
04-30 12:37:30	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x703ffc…
04-30 12:37:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0xe37777…
04-30 12:37:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0xfa2152…
04-30 12:36:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x68372a…
04-30 12:36:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0x450f1c…
04-30 12:36:06	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xdfda3a…
04-30 12:36:04	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x48933a…
04-30 12:35:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x4f0508…
04-30 12:35:26	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0x368424…
04-30 12:35:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x8c12f2…
04-30 12:35:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x7537ac…
04-30 12:35:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x488f04…
04-30 12:35:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x47991f…
04-30 12:35:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0x9af188…
04-30 12:34:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x645c0e…
04-30 12:34:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0x1ed11d…
04-30 07:12:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0xf505a5…
04-30 07:10:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	48	37¢	$18	0x575194…
04-30 07:09:22	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 30?	Yes	SELL	33	44¢	$15	0xfc7d43…
04-30 07:07:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	44¢	$15	0x74fe1a…
04-30 07:04:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	98	37¢	$36	0xc02b03…
04-30 06:47:20	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	No	SELL	200	31¢	$62	0xe113aa…
04-30 06:46:50	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x46e939…
04-30 06:37:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?	No	SELL	31	34¢	$11	0x27c00e…
04-30 06:35:56	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xcf7b34…
04-30 06:34:44	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	35	58¢	$20	0xd3ff72…
04-30 06:34:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x37af85…
04-30 06:34:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?	No	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0xab22f1…
04-30 06:33:22	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xcf20a1…
04-30 06:33:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?	No	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0x6c3eb3…