Realized P&L
+$144.2K
Unrealized P&L
—
Hit rate
81.8%
Resolved
78
Trades
3,361
lifetime
Volume
$3.53M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.05K
Open exposure
—
0 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 04-01 06:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 39 days
Categories
Politics
59%
75%
+$100,352
Other
41%
88%
+$42,813
Sports
0%
100%
+$1,037
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-04-01).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound. | ||||||||
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 903 | $515.1K | 499,995 | 295,903 | +204,093 | Yes | -$10,724 | 01-31 10:05 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 68 | $358.4K | 182,749 | 182,749 | +0 | No | +$6,404 | 04-01 05:39 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 74 | $234.7K | 216,200 | 25,000 | +191,200 | Yes | +$2,542 | 03-04 16:15 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 37 | $222.5K | 217,769 | 7,500 | +210,269 | Yes | +$2,766 | 03-13 12:19 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 555 | $221.6K | 163,852 | 163,785 | +67 | No | +$28,250 | 01-31 21:31 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 11 | $215.4K | 113,918 | 103,918 | +10,000 | No | +$75 | 03-04 16:09 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 28 | $194.4K | 149,834 | 49,834 | +100,000 | Yes | +$4,778 | 03-01 01:37 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 76 | $193.2K | 112,689 | 112,689 | +0 | No | +$7,411 | 01-19 08:58 |
| israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453 | 360 | $148.8K | 135,078 | 62,374 | +72,704 | No | +$38,904 | 01-30 18:52 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 4 | $119.7K | 120,000 | 0 | +120,000 | No | +$340 | 01-02 01:05 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 169 | $104.6K | 77,514 | 77,514 | +0 | Yes | +$858 | 02-24 15:35 |
| will the government shutdown last 3 days or more | 18 | $88.9K | 68,304 | 48,304 | +20,000 | Yes | +$24,146 | 01-31 05:06 |
| another us government shutdown by february 14 | 18 | $87.7K | 64,075 | 45,158 | +18,917 | No | +$4,845 | 02-14 21:58 |
| will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 64 | $71.9K | 76,013 | 0 | +76,013 | No | +$4,128 | 01-18 19:27 |
| us government funding lapse on january 31 | 36 | $52.3K | 53,299 | 0 | +53,299 | Yes | +$990 | 01-30 19:28 |
| trump invokes war powers against venezuela by january 9 737 | 30 | $50.5K | 48,047 | 3,870 | +44,177 | Yes | +$1,111 | 01-06 16:24 |
| new stranger things episode released by wednesday | 14 | $49.7K | 50,529 | 0 | +50,529 | No | +$819 | 01-07 17:09 |
| us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983 | 7 | $39.9K | 40,000 | 0 | +40,000 | No | +$120 | 01-02 01:02 |
| will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322 | 68 | $37.7K | 20,198 | 20,195 | +3 | No | +$1,475 | 01-19 23:20 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 14 | $37.6K | 20,212 | 20,212 | +0 | No | +$2,718 | 04-01 06:10 |
| us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155 | 26 | $33.4K | 30,100 | 23,078 | +7,021 | No | -$2,031 | 01-23 21:11 |
| trump invokes war powers against venezuela by january 31 134 583 | 26 | $29.8K | 21,746 | 11,287 | +10,459 | Yes | +$3,003 | 01-06 11:07 |
| will the us invade iran by march 31 | 22 | $25.4K | 25,381 | 2,236 | +23,145 | No | +$1,844 | 03-26 20:52 |
| will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831 | 2 | $24.6K | 25,000 | 0 | +25,000 | Yes | +$425 | 02-02 14:19 |
| us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913 | 41 | $21.3K | 18,227 | 18,227 | +0 | No | -$419 | 01-14 23:59 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 2 | $18.7K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | Yes | +$1,263 | 01-12 19:42 |
| israel strikes iran by january 15 2026 | 10 | $17.5K | 9,322 | 9,322 | +0 | No | +$987 | 01-15 17:45 |
| us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498 | 27 | $17.1K | 26,728 | 26,728 | +0 | No | -$395 | 01-14 09:52 |
| us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511 | 23 | $17.0K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | No | +$1,150 | 01-24 22:22 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | 54 | $16.4K | 12,000 | 12,000 | +0 | Yes | -$746 | 01-17 16:01 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||