Shady-Plough — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.0%

Resolved

Trades

552

lifetime

Volume

$85.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$155

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-06 23:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

67% — —

Other

30% 69% +$19

Sports

2% 100% +$2

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	113	$24.8K	13,541	13,318	+223	open	—	02-27 13:23
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	47	$14.8K	7,583	7,583	+0	open	—	02-09 11:45
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	25	$8.4K	4,236	4,236	+0	open	—	02-08 13:40
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	10	$3.8K	1,912	1,912	+0	open	—	03-04 09:32
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	8	$3.8K	1,932	1,932	+0	open	—	03-04 12:06
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	45	$3.3K	0	6,603	-6,603	open	—	01-29 13:38
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	41	$2.5K	0	5,252	-5,252	open	—	02-03 13:03
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	5	$2.2K	1,108	1,108	+0	open	—	02-07 11:03
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	3	$1.8K	924	924	+0	open	—	02-10 12:52
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	16	$1.7K	951	836	+115	open	—	03-12 05:01
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	6	$1.6K	806	806	-0	open	—	03-02 09:29
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	20	$1.3K	29	2,613	-2,585	open	—	03-02 09:27
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	3	$1.1K	553	553	+0	open	—	02-10 13:37
cbb alaam south 2026 02 07 total 144pt5	1	$915	916	0	+916	open	—	02-08 01:23
cbb siue arlr 2026 02 07 total 132pt5	3	$655	441	221	+220	open	—	02-07 23:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$650	0	1,306	-1,306	open	—	05-09 09:12
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	3	$437	0	1,329	-1,329	open	—	03-11 14:09
cbb cark queen 2026 01 28 total 156pt5	3	$430	216	216	+0	open	—	01-29 01:51
highest temperature in seoul on march 24 2026 12c	1	$428	428	0	+428	open	—	03-24 02:40
atp lehecka bublik 2026 04 09 set handicap home 1pt5	2	$398	200	200	+0	open	—	04-09 14:03
cbb mhst tmrt 2026 02 07 total 136pt5	2	$398	200	200	+0	open	—	02-07 23:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	6	$395	200	200	+0	open	—	04-14 03:55
cbb usi semst 2026 02 07 total 140pt5	2	$348	175	175	+0	open	—	02-08 00:14
cbb pvam bcook 2026 02 07 total 157pt5	2	$320	161	161	+0	open	—	02-08 00:47
cbb merc samf 2026 02 07 total 161pt5	2	$298	150	150	+0	open	—	02-08 01:05
cbb ausp ekent 2026 01 28 total 152pt5	2	$287	144	144	+0	open	—	01-29 02:18
cbb wbd nkent 2026 02 07 total 157pt5	2	$280	141	141	+0	open	—	02-08 00:18
cbb usc iowa 2026 01 28 total 141pt5	2	$273	137	137	+0	open	—	01-29 02:31
cbb tentch usi 2026 02 14 total 141pt5	3	$268	135	135	+0	open	—	02-15 00:23
cbb mdes howrd 2026 02 14 total 130pt5	2	$268	135	135	+0	open	—	02-15 01:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 23:49:57	fif bra egy 2026 06 06 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc3e7b5…
06-06 22:44:36	Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x8fb851…
05-16 10:32:20	Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x4776e8…
05-16 06:34:56	Fukushima United FC vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa8251c…
05-16 06:30:53	Albirex Niigata vs. Nara Club: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x8d23c0…
05-16 06:30:34	Sagan Tosu vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x01324b…
05-09 22:15:36	CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6683ac…
05-09 12:55:01	Middlesbrough FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xf18f18…
05-09 12:45:11	Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xcdf67c…
05-09 12:29:56	Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xc75b85…
05-09 12:28:44	Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xce1d99…
05-09 12:28:39	Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc7b156…
05-09 12:27:06	Middlesbrough FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf64fd6…
05-09 11:32:37	VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x50cfc6…
05-09 11:31:25	Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x1307bb…
05-09 11:30:47	VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xbc5925…
05-09 11:29:16	Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x0a76be…
05-09 10:46:56	Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x835007…
05-09 10:36:00	Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x60a924…
05-09 09:12:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	28¢	$45	0x0128c6…
05-09 08:43:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	28¢	$45	0x1cd4aa…
05-09 08:40:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	321	71¢	$228	0x7bc3b9…
05-08 13:04:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	198	66¢	$131	0xb694ba…
05-08 13:03:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0xb12914…
05-08 13:01:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$4	0xe51961…
05-08 12:59:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	66¢	$11	0xa58fa8…
05-08 12:56:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x31bd8f…
05-08 12:52:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xa9741b…
05-08 12:34:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	66¢	$10	0xce281c…
05-08 12:31:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	61	66¢	$40	0x55cddb…
05-08 12:28:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x9fe31a…
05-08 12:26:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	66¢	$21	0x91b866…
05-08 12:24:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	332	34¢	$113	0xb5dbf0…
05-07 03:26:23	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x5baefe…
04-14 07:25:21	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 spread away 1pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	80	34¢	$27	0xc1aae0…
04-14 03:55:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	75	99¢	$74	0x820580…
04-14 03:51:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	104	99¢	$102	0x3a1781…
04-14 03:51:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x8d5cfe…
04-12 04:28:25	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x3bef2d…
04-12 03:26:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	160	98¢	$158	0xe82fdf…
04-12 03:17:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x8041e4…
04-12 03:16:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xfdaa82…
04-09 15:07:47	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x243546…
04-09 14:04:47	atp lehecka bublik 2026 04 09 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0xbb7236…
04-09 14:03:11	atp lehecka bublik 2026 04 09 set handicap home 1pt5	Bublik	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xa17b9e…
04-09 14:01:21	atp lehecka bublik 2026 04 09 match total 21pt5	Under	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x07a5fd…
04-09 14:00:59	atp lehecka bublik 2026 04 09 match total 21pt5	Under	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x80a010…
04-09 13:56:55	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x148ca0…
04-09 13:52:57	atp lehecka bublik 2026 04 09 set handicap home 1pt5	Bublik	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x3223b4…
04-09 13:43:45	atp lehecka bublik 2026 04 09	Alexander Bublik	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x6d7b0e…
04-09 13:28:37	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xcb9566…
04-04 16:39:07	sea ver fio 2026 04 04 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x41c9d4…
04-04 16:38:37	fl1 str ogc 2026 04 04 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x499cd7…
04-04 14:29:11	bun fre bay 2026 04 04 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xf8e82c…
04-04 14:28:53	bun fre bay 2026 04 04 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	62¢	$2	0x0488b9…
04-04 12:05:23	bl2 fck dus 2026 04 04 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x41198d…
04-02 00:38:37	nba phi was 2026 04 01 total 244pt5	Over	BUY	212	99¢	$210	0x740a4d…
04-02 00:38:09	nba phi was 2026 04 01 total 243pt5	Over	BUY	180	99¢	$178	0x5a3bc9…
04-02 00:38:01	nba phi was 2026 04 01 total 242pt5	Over	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x2c6b5a…
04-02 00:37:55	nba phi was 2026 04 01 total 241pt5	Over	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0x591667…
04-02 00:37:51	nba phi was 2026 04 01 total 240pt5	Over	BUY	99	99¢	$98	0x67d469…
04-02 00:37:47	nba phi was 2026 04 01 total 239pt5	Over	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x8ccd45…
04-02 00:37:43	nba phi was 2026 04 01 total 240pt5	Over	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0x8c13fe…
04-02 00:37:19	nba phi was 2026 04 01 total 239pt5	Over	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x0a9cf4…
03-30 07:13:50	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x97e10f…
03-30 07:12:18	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xb4f0df…
03-27 15:19:13	highest temperature in shenzhen on march 27 2026 25c	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x7b118c…
03-27 06:22:13	highest temperature in shenzhen on march 27 2026 27c	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xf2950c…
03-27 04:58:07	highest temperature in shenzhen on march 27 2026 25c	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x37bea6…
03-27 03:25:45	highest temperature in shenzhen on march 27 2026 27c	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x577e47…
03-27 02:24:53	highest temperature in singapore on march 27 2026 32c	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x607ee5…
03-24 06:00:07	highest temperature in seoul on march 24 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0x470b96…
03-24 05:56:43	highest temperature in seoul on march 24 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xfdf6cb…
03-24 05:53:55	highest temperature in seoul on march 24 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xc3f8fe…
03-24 02:40:43	highest temperature in seoul on march 24 2026 12c	No	BUY	428	100¢	$428	0x255c19…
03-12 05:01:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	192	98¢	$188	0x23a5d7…
03-12 04:58:39	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xe46782…
03-12 04:58:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	284	98¢	$278	0x488e6c…
03-12 04:58:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	80	98¢	$78	0xf7214b…
03-12 04:57:53	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	192	98¢	$188	0x414b2e…
03-12 04:53:39	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	84	98¢	$82	0x25b80e…
03-12 04:42:05	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	321	98¢	$313	0x75b338…
03-12 04:40:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	167	98¢	$163	0x43ef9f…
03-12 04:40:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x24da30…
03-12 04:38:11	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x38f1ec…
03-12 04:38:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xb2f295…
03-12 04:38:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x9ccf81…
03-12 04:38:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	70	98¢	$68	0x7235e0…
03-12 04:38:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x32260c…
03-12 04:38:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x2d9452…
03-12 04:38:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x0734b0…
03-11 14:09:03	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	SELL	465	8¢	$37	0x9a978d…
03-11 14:05:31	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	SELL	465	8¢	$37	0x145d8b…
03-11 12:47:07	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	399	91¢	$363	0x2e96b2…
03-04 12:06:09	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	482	98¢	$471	0x597e46…
03-04 10:29:51	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	482	98¢	$471	0x0b4ad8…
03-04 10:16:07	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	61	98¢	$59	0x2b0d13…
03-04 10:12:41	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	904	98¢	$882	0x6068f1…
03-04 09:32:57	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	478	98¢	$471	0x5d5dc0…
03-04 08:23:49	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	156	98¢	$154	0xc4b5c7…