Second-Expectancy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$215

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.7%

Resolved

758

Trades

14,190

lifetime

Volume

$55.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 05-21 13:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 50% $-215

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 2343 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	129	$617	704	0	+704	open	—	05-15 20:22
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	104	$468	586	0	+586	open	—	05-15 20:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	69	$325	269	284	-15	open	—	05-19 14:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	68	$322	387	0	+387	open	—	05-15 19:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	67	$314	380	0	+380	open	—	05-15 20:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	57	$282	307	0	+307	open	—	05-15 19:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	63	$281	250	262	-12	open	—	05-19 19:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	56	$250	306	0	+306	open	—	05-15 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	50	$241	303	0	+303	open	—	05-15 19:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	41	$198	238	0	+238	open	—	05-15 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	6	$196	611	0	+611	Up	$-121	05-07 01:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	34	$167	194	0	+194	open	—	05-15 19:12
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	36	$161	223	0	+223	open	—	05-15 19:22
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	34	$152	184	0	+184	open	—	05-15 19:52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	32	$146	183	0	+183	open	—	05-15 19:47
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	81	$145	331	250	+81	open	—	05-19 08:57
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	30	$142	164	0	+164	open	—	05-15 19:42
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	62	$139	280	150	+130	open	—	05-19 14:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	26	$124	143	0	+143	open	—	05-15 20:02
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	63	$122	305	0	+305	open	—	05-19 17:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	58	$115	243	0	+243	open	—	05-19 18:42
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	66	$114	258	0	+258	open	—	05-19 18:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	8	$107	209	0	+209	Down	+$12	05-06 07:44
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	51	$106	217	0	+217	open	—	05-20 19:58
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	53	$105	211	0	+211	open	—	05-20 19:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	60	$103	257	0	+257	open	—	05-19 17:27
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	55	$103	225	0	+225	open	—	05-20 19:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	27	$103	127	0	+127	open	—	05-15 19:22
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	58	$100	210	0	+210	open	—	05-19 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	30	$97	116	0	+116	open	—	05-15 19:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 13:34:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x01a57f…
05-21 13:34:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	81	16¢	$13	0x0ad927…
05-21 13:31:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x088c66…
05-21 13:31:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x68035e…
05-21 13:31:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x17f5c7…
05-21 13:31:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xb02fdc…
05-21 13:31:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x6697bc…
05-21 13:31:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x0cff27…
05-21 13:31:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0xe94fb6…
05-21 13:31:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xca56eb…
05-21 13:31:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xa34ac5…
05-21 13:31:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xa09f57…
05-21 13:30:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xcba2b6…
05-21 13:30:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x0cff3d…
05-21 13:30:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf57dc6…
05-21 13:30:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x004545…
05-21 13:30:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x212aa2…
05-21 13:30:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xe963b4…
05-21 13:30:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xc3672d…
05-21 13:30:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xcba70e…
05-21 13:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc4c126…
05-21 13:30:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xee8293…
05-21 13:29:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6a0783…
05-21 13:29:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xd4e348…
05-21 13:29:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf0b26f…
05-21 13:29:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xf091eb…
05-21 13:29:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x20f164…
05-21 13:23:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe16c61…
05-21 13:23:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x00518f…
05-21 13:23:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	59¢	$1	0x8a1c41…
05-21 13:22:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	61¢	$1	0x38123f…
05-21 13:22:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x2508ad…
05-21 13:22:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0xfa8b3b…
05-21 13:22:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x79f06f…
05-21 13:22:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x681c5b…
05-21 13:21:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x9b4aae…
05-21 13:21:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7558d7…
05-21 13:16:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x087336…
05-21 13:16:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x01f921…
05-21 13:16:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x80ab99…
05-21 13:16:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x10271c…
05-21 13:15:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x424003…
05-21 13:15:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xd478a8…
05-21 13:15:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x6143d8…
05-21 13:15:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x3f6ba6…
05-21 13:15:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x6059d5…
05-21 13:15:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1d1cc4…
05-21 13:15:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x2c90c6…
05-21 13:03:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x073345…
05-21 13:03:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x36aaaa…
05-21 13:02:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xad2b2d…
05-21 13:01:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xe568cb…
05-21 13:01:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xdb456a…
05-21 13:01:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0xb1610f…
05-21 13:01:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x4385b7…
05-21 13:01:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0xc365e2…
05-21 13:01:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x571285…
05-21 13:01:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	0	38¢	$0	0xaeb4d2…
05-21 13:00:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x778fbc…
05-21 13:00:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa76521…
05-21 13:00:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x62e2ff…
05-21 13:00:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xa29d1b…
05-21 13:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb9b40d…
05-21 13:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x285b96…
05-21 13:00:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x79aa07…
05-21 13:00:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0xe1b108…
05-21 12:59:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0xca6301…
05-21 12:59:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x7dc7d0…
05-21 12:59:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfdfc1a…
05-21 12:59:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xa610fe…
05-21 12:59:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x61c8a1…
05-21 12:59:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0x415120…
05-21 12:59:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x3b1992…
05-21 12:59:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x1b7cfc…
05-21 12:58:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xdd7727…
05-21 12:58:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xd77687…
05-21 12:58:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x736cfd…
05-21 12:58:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x453cc4…
05-21 12:58:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x87fa2f…
05-21 12:58:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xd39be4…
05-21 12:53:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x2d931a…
05-21 12:52:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xc7d3e3…
05-21 12:52:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x2f2415…
05-21 12:52:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x386c9b…
05-21 12:52:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3915d5…
05-21 12:52:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf9dbb0…
05-21 12:51:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x7d34cc…
05-21 12:49:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x519260…
05-21 12:48:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xe2d4bb…
05-21 12:48:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xae0a76…
05-21 12:48:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x34f327…
05-21 12:48:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xd47b3c…
05-21 12:48:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x3aad1c…
05-21 12:48:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x223639…
05-21 12:47:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x08d206…
05-21 12:46:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0x7a8903…
05-21 12:46:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x7b12f2…
05-21 12:46:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x6e8d3b…
05-21 12:46:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x984ad8…
05-21 12:46:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x725883…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	963	$213.8K	61,385	05-21 13:40
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	963	$88.2K	10,426	05-21 13:39
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	962	$232.5K	67,327	05-21 13:40
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	961	$204.1K	30,920	05-21 13:39
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	960	$406.4K	33,086	05-21 13:37
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	952	$231.4K	35,665	05-21 13:39
(anonymous) 0x5e2b…9101	952	$64.5K	8,779	05-21 13:39
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	931	$111.1K	8,324	05-21 13:39