Paltry-Manipulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$242

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

91.3%

Resolved

Trades

324

lifetime

Volume

$16.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$183

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-11

last 06-09 13:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

45% 67% +$307

Politics

43% 50% $-2

Crypto

8% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-62

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	-120	$-74	72¢	$-87	$-13	06-04 14:15
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	+80	$50	69¢	$55	+$6	05-29 05:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	-30	$-22	82¢	$-25	$-2	06-04 12:27
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	-24	$-16	67¢	$-16	+$0	06-04 14:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	6	$1.5K	947	947	+0	No	+$279	05-08 05:45
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	7	$1.5K	1,796	1,046	+750	open	—	04-28 05:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$829	3,388	0	+3,388	open	—	06-03 14:00
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$810	484	484	+0	open	—	05-24 03:06
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	3	$720	400	400	+0	open	—	05-31 13:41
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$665	1,569	1,396	+173	open	—	04-15 02:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$524	300	300	+0	open	—	05-12 15:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$431	430	215	+215	open	—	05-13 11:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$412	250	250	+0	No	+$12	05-03 01:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$388	248	248	+0	open	—	06-01 04:39
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5	2	$356	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 01:23
Will the Conservative Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$342	268	268	+0	Yes	+$2	05-06 07:23
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	1	$300	345	0	+345	open	—	05-01 12:20
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$285	180	180	+0	No	+$73	05-10 11:43
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5	2	$252	300	0	+300	open	—	06-05 03:02
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	2	$239	200	121	+79	open	—	05-25 07:40
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	3	$229	143	143	+0	Yes	+$49	05-10 11:42
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$217	124	124	+0	open	—	04-27 00:55
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	4	$216	229	229	+0	open	—	06-03 23:57
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	4	$200	140	140	+0	No	+$10	05-08 12:01
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	3	$190	524	262	+262	Yes	$-114	05-01 12:00
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5	1	$180	200	0	+200	open	—	06-04 15:16
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5	2	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	06-01 01:22
fif esp irq 2026 06 04 total 5pt5	1	$178	222	0	+222	open	—	06-04 14:12
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	5	$176	243	0	+243	open	—	05-29 01:45
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5	2	$171	216	0	+216	open	—	06-01 01:02
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$170	100	100	+0	open	—	05-24 02:43
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$168	93	93	+0	open	—	04-27 00:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$168	100	100	+0	open	—	05-26 05:02
xauusd up or down on april 13 2026	2	$166	210	206	+4	open	—	04-13 04:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 13:21:40	fif cam hkg 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x5bdfb0…
06-09 12:49:03	fif phi mya 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xca713f…
06-09 12:14:42	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0xc8826d…
06-09 11:42:03	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0x3808a3…
06-09 10:25:51	fif chn tha 2026 06 09 btts	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xf9c862…
06-08 13:10:52	fif eqg com 2026 06 08 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xeaf387…
06-08 10:13:01	fif nig mtn 2026 06 08 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x0219e3…
06-08 09:58:06	fif eqg com 2026 06 08 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xae1a74…
06-08 03:08:55	Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x1f8aa5…
06-07 13:57:03	Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x82128d…
06-07 13:46:58	Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x627b53…
06-07 06:40:12	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 total 202pt5	Over	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xdde007…
06-07 06:38:42	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0x80cc0e…
06-07 06:38:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x2be750…
06-07 06:37:55	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 total 204pt5	Over	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0x76e5fa…
06-07 06:36:39	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 total 202pt5	Over	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0xcb9d20…
06-07 06:36:06	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 total 215pt5	Under	BUY	41	50¢	$20	0x7bb62b…
06-06 06:04:49	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	90	80¢	$72	0xde5f47…
06-06 05:22:37	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x744e28…
06-06 05:22:21	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x5cdcec…
06-06 05:10:31	will xrp dip to 1 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xc8c91c…
06-06 05:07:49	will xrp dip to 1 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x3eef69…
06-06 05:04:40	will trump speak to luiz incio lula da silva in june	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x30decb…
06-06 04:40:58	will trump speak to luiz incio lula da silva in june	No	BUY	25	23¢	$6	0xf8cb32…
06-06 04:06:52	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	26	55¢	$14	0xfab4c2…
06-06 03:59:25	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xea9a0f…
06-06 03:32:09	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0xdca126…
06-06 03:25:10	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x866ced…
06-06 02:31:22	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x66f2e7…
06-06 02:26:46	will xrp dip to 1 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0xbd3934…
06-05 16:23:27	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x537cbc…
06-05 03:02:18	Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	200	79¢	$159	0xfd8f94…
06-05 02:49:52	Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0xe3f56a…
06-05 02:38:15	Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	217	71¢	$154	0x35e984…
06-05 01:58:13	Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xe83639…
06-05 00:53:39	Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	149	78¢	$116	0xb7d0b7…
06-05 00:39:54	Guatemala vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0x117469…
06-04 16:25:16	France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x7f64f8…
06-04 15:16:48	France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xc7a44b…
06-04 14:38:04	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x300312…
06-04 14:19:46	fif nir gui 2026 06 04 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	101	89¢	$90	0xb116fc…
06-04 14:18:16	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	75	38¢	$28	0x4082fa…
06-04 14:15:03	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	51	58¢	$29	0x74033f…
06-04 14:14:42	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	95	52¢	$49	0xc1c801…
06-04 14:13:27	fif esp irq 2026 06 04 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	126	63¢	$79	0xcefe48…
06-04 14:12:55	fif esp irq 2026 06 04 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	222	80¢	$178	0x263e44…
06-04 13:21:09	fif cam bhu 2026 06 04 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x8255dc…
06-04 13:21:06	fif cam bhu 2026 06 04 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x39d5e5…
06-04 12:47:54	fif cam bhu 2026 06 04 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	38	89¢	$34	0x964807…
06-04 12:47:28	fif cam bhu 2026 06 04 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x0f4eec…
06-04 12:32:13	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	SELL	91	72¢	$66	0x5344ec…
06-04 12:27:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	75¢	$22	0x7c8389…
06-04 06:54:15	will trump say six seven during wisconsin events 20260602174202009	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xa58c3f…
06-04 06:44:10	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in june	No	BUY	355	3¢	$11	0xfbcd1a…
06-04 00:09:52	will trump say death tax during wisconsin events 20260602174202011	No	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x252da8…
06-03 23:57:46	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x2eae8a…
06-03 22:37:45	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during wisconsin events 20260602174202018	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x4eb948…
06-03 19:03:03	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during wisconsin events 20260602174202018	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xcb093b…
06-03 14:56:09	Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events?	No	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xa3c13e…
06-03 14:48:13	will trump say job 20 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201993	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x0b7147…
06-03 14:00:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,007	1¢	$12	0x4e5b9c…
06-03 13:40:13	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Wisconsin events?	No	BUY	46	50¢	$23	0x28548d…
06-03 13:08:27	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	231	0¢	$0	0x185f82…
06-03 13:07:13	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	No	BUY	53	41¢	$22	0x2db4c8…
06-03 12:02:53	will trump say job 20 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201993	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb03904…
06-03 12:02:44	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Wisconsin events?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4adfa3…
06-03 11:48:25	Will Trump say "Percent" 13+ times during Wisconsin events?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xacc48e…
06-03 11:19:01	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Wisconsin events?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x179c00…
06-03 10:44:13	Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events?	No	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x045d95…
06-03 10:44:11	Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events?	No	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0xbe2829…
06-03 10:17:41	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	No	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0x03314b…
06-03 10:10:11	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during wisconsin events 20260602174202018	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x766844…
06-03 10:09:34	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during wisconsin events 20260602174202019	Yes	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0xc3a73d…
06-03 10:05:17	Will Trump say "Beef" during Wisconsin events?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x3084bf…
06-03 10:05:06	Will Trump say "Beef" during Wisconsin events?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x95928a…
06-02 14:14:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	210	1¢	$1	0x2922d3…
06-02 14:09:25	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June?	No	BUY	54	10¢	$5	0x4c1f95…
06-02 14:08:43	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June?	No	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xe84a1d…
06-02 14:07:51	Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June?	No	BUY	81	7¢	$6	0x6c7ae8…
06-02 14:05:29	GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	91	28¢	$25	0xa82f95…
06-02 00:50:27	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x1e65f7…
06-01 14:00:58	Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x6d63aa…
06-01 13:23:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	183	71¢	$130	0xa77527…
06-01 13:17:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	206	68¢	$141	0x1dbb12…
06-01 13:17:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	227	68¢	$155	0x95dde4…
06-01 13:16:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	70¢	$210	0x40d6ee…
06-01 13:16:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	256	70¢	$180	0xf65b9f…
06-01 10:21:02	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x1eea65…
06-01 04:39:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	248	100¢	$248	0x871952…
06-01 01:38:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x23793d…
06-01 01:37:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	131	23¢	$30	0xd96354…
06-01 01:34:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	129	73¢	$94	0x9aacdb…
06-01 01:28:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	71¢	$92	0x8fd847…
06-01 01:23:29	Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5	Over	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xa58f66…
06-01 01:22:19	Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xa0272e…
06-01 01:02:15	Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	206	79¢	$163	0x6cfe1c…
06-01 01:00:39	Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x559ea4…
06-01 01:00:06	Czechia vs. Kosovo: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xdb1f7f…
05-31 20:06:20	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	69	65¢	$45	0xc661c0…
05-31 14:37:07	Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x7c8aa8…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	114	$343.0K	29,779	06-09 22:12
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	106	$49.5K	5,137	06-09 15:29
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	101	$46.5K	13,214	06-10 00:08
Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf	96	$22.7K	1,100	06-09 22:03
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	92	$623.3K	12,037	06-09 20:56
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	85	$17.3M	30,979	06-10 00:11
Improbable-Entry 0x7e80…631b	78	$129.2K	2,568	06-09 23:47
Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e	75	$549.3K	8,123	06-09 20:56