Shrill-Marsh — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

59.4%

Resolved

Trades

175

lifetime

Volume

$584

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 06-18 09:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Crypto

77% 28% -$18

Other

18% 33% +$9

Politics

5% 12% -$12

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-18).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+36	$3	2¢	$1	-$3	06-18 09:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4	$2	16¢	$1	-$1	06-18 09:10
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	-24	-$1	1¢	$-0	+$0	05-05 06:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$61	39	39	+0	Yes	+$17	01-31 12:51
ethereum above 2500 on january 31	3	$49	44	44	+0	No	+$37	01-31 17:00
ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	10	$35	43	43	+0	Down	-$1	02-02 19:59
ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	9	$30	56	50	+6	Down	+$6	02-02 17:59
ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	9	$29	37	37	+0	Down	+$3	02-02 16:50
ethereum up or down february 2 1pm et	5	$22	59	35	+24	Down	-$8	02-02 18:45
another critical cloudflare incident by february 28	2	$21	59	59	+0	Yes	+$1	02-01 16:59
bitcoin up or down february 2 8am et	2	$21	17	17	+0	Up	+$11	02-02 13:56
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 08:45 UTC	4	$19	144	12	+132	Up	-$2	02-02 08:58
ethereum up or down february 3 2am et	6	$19	24	24	+0	Up	-$1	02-03 07:50
ethereum up or down february 2 4am et	6	$19	1,056	12	+1,044	Up	+$2	02-02 09:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 08:45 UTC	4	$17	26	26	+0	Down	+$3	02-02 08:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 09:00 UTC	2	$12	64	0	+64	Down	-$12	02-02 09:06
bitcoin up or down february 2 12pm et	2	$12	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	02-02 17:16
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 2	2	$11	17	17	+0	Yes	+$1	02-02 14:18
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$11	14	14	+0	No	+$1	03-11 15:35
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$11	42	42	+0	No	-$8	01-22 08:06
ethereum up or down on february 2	2	$11	28	28	+0	Up	+$1	02-02 08:17
ethereum up or down february 2 1am et	3	$11	15	11	+4	Up	+$7	02-02 06:49
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-02 09:00 UTC	1	$10	42	0	+42	Up	-$10	02-02 10:18
xrp up or down february 2 1pm et	3	$8	12	8	+4	Down	-$4	02-02 18:54
bitcoin up or down february 1 8am et	2	$6	5	5	+0	Down	+$4	02-01 15:34
solana up or down february 2 1pm et	2	$6	4	4	+0	Down	+$2	02-02 19:01
bitcoin above 80k on january 31	2	$5	56	56	+0	Yes	+$1	01-31 16:47
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 08:00 UTC	1	$5	47	0	+47	Up	-$5	02-02 08:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 08:15 UTC	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	+$10	02-02 08:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 09:00 UTC	1	$5	23	0	+23	Down	-$5	02-02 09:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 08:30 UTC	1	$5	22	0	+22	Up	-$5	02-02 08:37
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 08:15 UTC	1	$5	21	0	+21	Down	-$5	02-02 08:27
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 09:15 UTC	1	$5	19	0	+19	Up	-$5	02-02 09:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 09:11:50	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x1c9444…
06-18 09:10:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xfbb7c4…
05-05 06:14:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$2	0x4f50ce…
05-05 06:05:40	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$1	0x0395ec…
03-17 08:55:07	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa4b49e…
03-17 08:53:17	trump out as president by march 31	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x5dc524…
03-16 18:34:23	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	35	7¢	$3	0x587993…
03-13 07:52:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x0a9a3e…
03-11 15:39:01	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xfd8881…
03-11 15:35:37	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x311d61…
03-11 15:35:23	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0x4c0d2c…
03-06 16:46:11	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xcd81f2…
03-01 06:27:07	will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x69f1fc…
02-28 09:11:29	iran strike on us military by february 28	No	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x92951d…
02-28 08:45:51	iran strike on us military by february 28	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x645596…
02-28 08:45:01	will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xa692d1…
02-28 08:44:57	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xa54efb…
02-28 08:42:33	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	24	6¢	$1	0x35c64b…
02-20 19:52:56	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0x51dcf3…
02-20 09:26:54	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0x9c96fd…
02-20 09:12:26	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xcd4f0c…
02-09 19:30:41	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xdb3b0f…
02-03 08:17:26	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xa242e4…
02-03 07:50:04	ethereum up or down february 3 2am et	Down	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x1407f6…
02-03 07:21:26	ethereum up or down february 3 2am et	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x0ad5bb…
02-03 07:16:46	will the price of ethereum be less than 2500 on february 3	No	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0x1c54d7…
02-03 07:14:50	ethereum up or down february 3 2am et	Down	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0xa3db76…
02-03 07:09:32	ethereum up or down february 3 2am et	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xa0a850…
02-03 07:07:34	ethereum up or down february 3 2am et	Up	SELL	11	50¢	$6	0x545798…
02-03 07:01:18	ethereum up or down february 3 2am et	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x5ff122…
02-02 20:03:14	will the price of ethereum be between 2500 2600 on february 3	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x3755b6…
02-02 19:59:38	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Up	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x018d2a…
02-02 19:30:44	xrp up or down february 2 2pm et	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xc15740…
02-02 19:25:42	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x6402c1…
02-02 19:19:48	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Down	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xc9ef4b…
02-02 19:19:48	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Down	SELL	9	50¢	$5	0xa6f010…
02-02 19:17:50	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xd8ef11…
02-02 19:17:14	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Up	SELL	0	58¢	$0	0x50b3bd…
02-02 19:15:38	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Down	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0x8f488f…
02-02 19:14:28	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Down	BUY	8	44¢	$3	0xd74e0f…
02-02 19:12:32	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Up	SELL	11	61¢	$7	0x6287d1…
02-02 19:11:02	ethereum up or down february 2 2pm et	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x6c3f91…
02-02 19:01:10	solana up or down february 2 1pm et	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xf9dcbc…
02-02 18:56:00	solana up or down february 2 1pm et	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xa905e3…
02-02 18:54:34	xrp up or down february 2 1pm et	Up	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xa58d9f…
02-02 18:53:04	xrp up or down february 2 1pm et	Down	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x17b3e3…
02-02 18:48:08	xrp up or down february 2 1pm et	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xa7df03…
02-02 18:45:42	ethereum up or down february 2 1pm et	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xc8b845…
02-02 18:44:26	ethereum up or down february 2 1pm et	Up	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0x6a9384…
02-02 18:40:08	ethereum up or down february 2 1pm et	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xd58451…
02-02 18:22:58	ethereum up or down february 2 1pm et	Up	SELL	22	20¢	$4	0x04a6eb…
02-02 18:12:42	ethereum up or down february 2 1pm et	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x20da9f…
02-02 17:59:24	ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x37a369…
02-02 17:56:46	xrp up or down february 2 12pm et	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x01f316…
02-02 17:55:44	ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	Up	SELL	11	29¢	$3	0x7a878f…
02-02 17:51:50	ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x41699a…
02-02 17:46:18	ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	Up	SELL	12	37¢	$4	0xe4a26f…
02-02 17:44:00	ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	Up	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x7a6d3a…
02-02 17:39:32	ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	Down	SELL	7	48¢	$3	0xb54551…
02-02 17:32:28	ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xf71051…
02-02 17:26:24	ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	Down	SELL	21	35¢	$7	0x3e70e5…
02-02 17:24:36	bitcoin up or down february 2 11am et	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x57b6c8…
02-02 17:16:58	bitcoin up or down february 2 12pm et	Down	SELL	17	40¢	$7	0x60eaf6…
02-02 17:14:20	ethereum up or down february 2 12pm et	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x750a5f…
02-02 17:08:50	bitcoin up or down february 2 12pm et	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x185ada…
02-02 17:02:20	trump out as president by march 31	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x7badd2…
02-02 16:52:36	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-02 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xc668f6…
02-02 16:52:00	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-02 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x36e83a…
02-02 16:50:16	ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	Up	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x1a26c7…
02-02 16:49:14	bitcoin up or down february 2 11am et	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x54355e…
02-02 16:45:54	ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xdef621…
02-02 16:45:14	ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	Down	SELL	10	65¢	$7	0x32e1ba…
02-02 16:43:32	ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xacc2f1…
02-02 16:43:04	ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	Up	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xf2ddfd…
02-02 16:41:38	ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x15801d…
02-02 16:39:12	ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	Down	SELL	9	40¢	$4	0xa2e8b3…
02-02 16:39:12	ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	Down	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x6a0196…
02-02 16:30:40	ethereum up or down february 2 11am et	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x2c3a5a…
02-02 16:10:02	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x932cdb…
02-02 15:25:20	ethereum up or down february 2 10am et	Down	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0xea8ca6…
02-02 15:14:12	ethereum up or down february 2 10am et	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x6a69a7…
02-02 14:18:16	will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 2	Yes	SELL	17	36¢	$6	0xc24dfe…
02-02 13:56:40	bitcoin up or down february 2 8am et	Up	SELL	17	93¢	$16	0xea5ca7…
02-02 13:52:20	ethereum up or down february 2 8am et	Down	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0xb02e04…
02-02 13:51:02	bitcoin up or down february 2 8am et	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xd87379…
02-02 13:50:46	ethereum up or down february 2 8am et	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x4a0e57…
02-02 13:28:34	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc224e6…
02-02 10:18:08	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-02 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x2e67d6…
02-02 10:14:12	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x220b30…
02-02 10:11:34	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-02 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x7ee69a…
02-02 09:57:00	ethereum up or down february 2 4am et	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x946b32…
02-02 09:55:12	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x065f35…
02-02 09:43:12	ethereum up or down february 2 4am et	Down	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xb4434f…
02-02 09:42:36	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xaf9bf9…
02-02 09:36:02	ethereum up or down february 2 4am et	Up	SELL	6	88¢	$6	0x9a0efc…
02-02 09:35:26	ethereum up or down february 2 4am et	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xfad60f…
02-02 09:30:56	ethereum up or down february 2 4am et	Up	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x131d12…
02-02 09:25:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd943b6…
02-02 09:19:24	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x9c1440…
02-02 09:17:38	ethereum up or down february 2 4am et	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xa10666…