Dead-Major — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$877

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

308 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$14.1K

$92.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$300

Open exposure

$5.05K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-07 00:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Politics

53% 91% +$2,075

Other

40% 66% -$738

Tech

6% 75% +$845

Sports

0% 20% -$99

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No		+5,071	$5,074	100¢	$5.0K	-$26	11-07 00:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	15	$14.8K	9,434	5,474	+3,959	No	+$61	09-16 17:54
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$9.9K	5,156	5,156	+0	No	+$68	10-22 03:00
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	8	$8.3K	7,405	2,500	+4,905	Yes	+$376	09-20 17:15
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	6	$6.9K	6,276	1,767	+4,509	Yes	+$816	09-01 17:55
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	2	$5.2K	5,220	149	+5,071	open	—	11-07 00:18
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	2	$4.0K	4,006	0	+4,006	No	+$9	01-01 02:10
will the trump administration release any epstein related files on january 6 2026	1	$3.8K	4,126	0	+4,126	Yes	+$330	01-07 08:08
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	3	$2.7K	2,768	0	+2,768	No	+$58	09-01 06:43
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	6	$2.4K	2,785	0	+2,785	No	+$340	07-06 19:47
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	1	$2.4K	2,528	0	+2,528	Yes	+$106	09-08 02:49
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	6	$2.2K	2,308	0	+2,308	No	+$97	07-08 07:09
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$2.0K	2,174	0	+2,174	Yes	+$174	10-22 03:03
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	1	$2.0K	2,045	0	+2,045	No	+$61	08-30 19:23
will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	8	$1.7K	2,050	2,050	+0	Yes	-$955	07-06 19:46
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	6	$1.5K	2,114	635	+1,479	Yes	+$410	10-22 03:04
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	3	$1.4K	1,530	1,530	+0	No	-$265	07-06 19:58
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?	1	$1.3K	1,324	0	+1,324	Yes	+$15	09-03 15:04
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	9	$1.2K	657	657	+0	Yes	+$65	04-18 02:42
will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	1	$1.0K	1,014	0	+1,014	No	-$1,004	09-03 15:04
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	2	$1000	1,470	0	+1,470	Yes	+$471	10-22 04:07
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?	1	$993	1,024	0	+1,024	No	+$31	08-28 17:44
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$873	468	468	+0	Yes	+$60	05-29 21:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$861	433	433	+0	Yes	+$3	04-09 18:23
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	1	$846	864	0	+864	Yes	+$18	09-02 14:26
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$808	430	430	+0	Yes	+$50	04-08 20:39
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	2	$751	1,216	0	+1,216	Yes	+$465	07-06 19:59
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?	4	$731	382	382	-0	Yes	+$4	04-04 23:06
next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	12	$624	436	436	+0	Yes	+$57	09-01 03:26
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	2	$514	260	260	+0	No	+$0	08-30 06:36
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	3	$486	540	0	+540	Yes	+$54	05-30 15:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 00:18:57	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	5,220	99¢	$5,157	0x569b97…
10-30 07:57:00	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	36	44¢	$16	0x96ceab…
10-30 07:56:39	Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0x0341cc…
10-30 07:56:30	Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xbf6d16…
10-22 04:07:12	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	965	68¢	$656	0xc468f3…
10-22 04:07:09	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	505	68¢	$343	0x49785b…
10-22 03:04:08	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,479	66¢	$976	0xa3e9ee…
10-22 03:03:42	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0x8ecaba…
10-22 03:03:08	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0x5f79f4…
10-22 03:00:42	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	5,156	97¢	$4,976	0x3da502…
09-28 22:59:14	Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0xe76f4b…
09-24 22:22:29	Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x8e9b38…
09-24 22:08:54	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	5,156	95¢	$4,908	0xf723ac…
09-22 21:21:36	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	472	97¢	$458	0x024588…
09-20 17:15:55	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xbd0349…
09-20 17:14:28	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,596	90¢	$2,337	0x625ba0…
09-20 17:13:10	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	186	90¢	$167	0x5ef847…
09-20 17:12:57	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0xbb4084…
09-20 16:19:04	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,096	89¢	$1,865	0x1d6e93…
09-19 03:18:46	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2,000	73¢	$1,460	0xccb13b…
09-18 18:50:27	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	500	81¢	$405	0x809e4a…
09-18 17:31:46	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,500	80¢	$2,000	0xb6ffb9…
09-16 17:54:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x3a76b6…
09-13 16:56:27	Spain/USA vs. France/Germany	Spain/USA	BUY	27	76¢	$20	0x293efe…
09-09 15:45:00	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x1db2dc…
09-09 15:44:19	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	SELL	118	18¢	$21	0x0a37d5…
09-08 06:38:00	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	BUY	118	66¢	$78	0xc89ad3…
09-08 02:49:09	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,528	96¢	$2,422	0x46f27d…
09-04 05:42:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0x998f26…
09-03 15:04:34	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	236	99¢	$234	0x53a0b8…
09-03 15:04:19	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,324	99¢	$1,308	0x1efeb8…
09-03 15:04:06	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	1,014	99¢	$1,004	0xc1781e…
09-02 14:26:25	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	864	98¢	$846	0x73e709…
09-02 14:26:06	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	412	98¢	$404	0xe381e7…
09-01 17:55:18	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,509	100¢	$4,498	0xe25c52…
09-01 17:39:54	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,757	91¢	$1,606	0x05e65b…
09-01 06:43:09	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	1,261	100¢	$1,259	0xed4ab9…
09-01 04:37:24	next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x330252…
09-01 03:26:01	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	283	78¢	$221	0x7bbd42…
09-01 03:17:54	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0x27ca3a…
09-01 03:15:21	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xdf0dfc…
09-01 03:08:07	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x71c431…
09-01 02:57:16	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x42ede6…
09-01 02:56:46	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0xecd64a…
09-01 02:49:45	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x027d04…
09-01 02:47:39	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x8fb121…
09-01 02:46:19	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x245015…
09-01 02:40:30	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0xb7d7dd…
09-01 02:16:00	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	90	78¢	$70	0xdbb97d…
09-01 01:56:30	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	SELL	49	78¢	$38	0x5502e1…
08-31 01:36:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,932	99¢	$1,917	0x36b2db…
08-30 23:42:37	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	99¢	$128	0x7bd490…
08-30 19:23:40	US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	No	BUY	2,045	97¢	$1,984	0x7d156c…
08-30 19:23:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,984	0x6c2bd7…
08-30 06:42:31	next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	785	47¢	$367	0x080841…
08-30 06:39:30	next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	417	45¢	$187	0x03a48d…
08-30 06:39:15	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	BUY	436	65¢	$284	0x247146…
08-30 06:38:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	864	99¢	$855	0x77c70f…
08-30 06:38:33	next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	565	44¢	$251	0x4131f8…
08-30 06:36:39	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	No	SELL	260	99¢	$257	0x47840e…
08-30 04:55:21	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	1,398	96¢	$1,342	0x6e28cc…
08-30 04:54:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,355	99¢	$1,343	0x4895ac…
08-28 17:45:37	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	No	BUY	260	99¢	$257	0xd8efa8…
08-28 17:45:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	256	99¢	$254	0x6c9ea4…
08-28 17:44:42	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,024	97¢	$993	0x1e715d…
08-28 17:44:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$993	0x32961f…
08-28 13:56:21	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4,450	99¢	$4,387	0x8e9819…
08-28 13:54:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$25	0xb052bf…
08-28 13:54:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7d4251…
08-28 13:54:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x53977d…
08-28 13:54:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5333af…
08-28 13:54:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$31	0x4a086b…
08-28 13:54:21	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	896	99¢	$884	0x40c761…
07-08 07:09:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0x79fa17…
07-08 07:06:04	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x227f18…
07-08 07:05:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x34b329…
07-08 07:05:07	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	1,667	99¢	$1,647	0xe3604b…
07-08 07:05:07	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xbf025a…
07-06 19:59:20	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xf725d4…
07-06 19:58:59	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,206	62¢	$745	0x42c6f9…
07-06 19:58:46	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	77	34¢	$26	0x69550c…
07-06 19:58:28	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	132	34¢	$45	0x15503a…
07-06 19:58:11	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,489	36¢	$529	0xcd103d…
07-06 19:57:32	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$2	0xefccf1…
07-06 19:57:31	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	422	39¢	$165	0xb42f80…
07-06 19:57:20	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	39¢	$16	0x4b6a9f…
07-06 19:47:07	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	339	89¢	$302	0x5def27…
07-06 19:46:32	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	498	85¢	$422	0x73bdfd…
07-06 19:46:08	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	SELL	1,237	13¢	$162	0x00b9dd…
07-06 19:44:13	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	SELL	813	23¢	$187	0x394c8d…
07-06 19:41:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	550	89¢	$489	0xb57bdd…
07-06 19:37:37	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	BUY	46	62¢	$29	0x54479d…
07-06 19:37:35	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xfd4078…
07-06 19:37:34	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	BUY	944	62¢	$585	0x55221f…
07-06 19:33:04	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x8ab5d6…
07-06 19:32:47	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	BUY	977	65¢	$635	0x9f95e6…
07-06 19:32:22	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x023c25…
07-06 19:29:29	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	19	87¢	$16	0x220344…
07-06 19:29:05	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,530	53¢	$811	0x575de6…
07-06 19:27:13	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	635	52¢	$330	0x14f283…