Hurtful-Nuke — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.82K

Unrealized P&L

+$175

Hit rate

38.6%

Resolved

4,762

Trades

27,800

lifetime

Volume

$215.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$1.83K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-22 05:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Other

65% 37% -$2,760

Politics

23% 28% -$3,131

Crypto

7% 37% -$492

Tech

3% 34% -$342

Sports

2% 38% -$89

Pop-Culture

0% 33% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 2114 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	No	+400	$389	97¢	$388	-$1	10-16 04:05
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	+120	$64	98¢	$117	+$53	08-29 13:41
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+121	$96	94¢	$114	+$18	09-05 09:01
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	+100	$90	98¢	$98	+$8	10-16 04:07
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	+100	$88	80¢	$79	-$8	10-16 03:56
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	+100	$65	74¢	$74	+$9	10-16 04:07
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+80	$76	92¢	$73	-$2	08-24 08:09
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	No	+100	$66	63¢	$63	-$3	10-22 05:10
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	+100	$58	62¢	$62	+$4	10-22 05:02
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+60	$45	85¢	$51	+$6	09-04 03:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	+100	$49	50¢	$50	+$2	10-22 05:10
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	+58	$21	82¢	$48	+$26	08-22 22:55
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+60	$46	78¢	$46	+$1	08-23 06:43
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+45	$18	98¢	$44	+$27	09-06 17:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	+102	$38	40¢	$41	+$4	10-22 05:00
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	+40	$45	97¢	$39	-$6	10-22 04:58
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	+60	$43	63¢	$38	-$5	08-22 01:39
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+100	$45	37¢	$37	-$8	10-22 05:10
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+60	$30	61¢	$37	+$7	08-20 12:03
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+100	$44	35¢	$35	-$9	10-22 05:10
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	No	+40	$27	86¢	$35	+$8	08-26 14:57
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	No	+40	$19	84¢	$34	+$15	08-23 11:08
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+30	$25	99¢	$30	+$5	09-05 04:18
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+30	$26	98¢	$29	+$3	08-27 04:55
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+30	$27	98¢	$29	+$2	09-09 22:52
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	+30	$28	97¢	$29	+$1	08-24 08:23
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+30	$30	94¢	$28	-$2	09-06 10:22
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?	No	+30	$20	93¢	$28	+$8	08-29 02:36
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+28	$13	98¢	$28	+$14	08-26 17:56
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	+40	$27	68¢	$27	+$0	08-23 09:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	17	$4.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	-$1,080	02-13 09:33
will zachxbt release his investigation on february 26	1	$3.0K	3,132	0	+3,132	Yes	+$132	02-25 14:36
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	1	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	+$160	01-05 23:51
over 70m committed to the ranger public sale rwrn 523	3	$1.4K	2,271	0	+2,271	Yes	+$909	01-09 21:27
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 380 399	3	$1.1K	2,160	1,000	+1,160	No	-$529	02-13 09:55
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	7	$1.0K	7,123	7,123	+0	open	—	05-11 07:30
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 360 379	3	$821	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$451	02-13 09:33
over 100m committed to the ranger public sale 221 979 762 217 192	11	$761	2,050	0	+2,050	No	-$761	01-10 01:05
over 60m committed to the ranger public sale 296 929 632	2	$630	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$370	01-06 00:29
Will Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan?	44	$468	572	152	+420	No	-$7	08-28 10:53
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	1	$389	400	0	+400	open	—	10-16 04:05
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$340	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$340	01-09 21:10
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August?	37	$307	520	60	+460	No	-$17	08-28 07:48
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	45	$296	534	182	+351	Yes	-$23	08-28 07:37
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	32	$289	401	159	+242	open	—	09-05 09:01
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	29	$286	384	136	+248	No	-$29	08-29 12:44
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	12	$280	180	140	+40	Yes	+$8	09-03 01:28
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	35	$279	399	155	+244	No	-$18	08-27 09:13
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	41	$270	504	0	+504	Up	+$11	10-11 04:38
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 1 and September 14, 2026?	25	$263	441	80	+361	No	-$8	08-29 16:46
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	49	$261	506	0	+506	Up	-$22	10-11 06:04
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	22	$260	282	113	+169	No	+$0	08-27 10:51
Will Weverton Rocha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?	32	$259	396	156	+240	No	-$11	09-07 22:27
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	30	$258	259	223	+36	Yes	-$12	09-05 23:18
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	27	$256	292	83	+209	Yes	-$24	08-29 07:21
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	26	$251	372	132	+240	open	—	08-29 13:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	42	$250	407	0	+407	Down	-$30	10-08 03:19
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	53	$248	504	60	+444	No	+$0	08-28 14:07
Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	43	$247	455	70	+385	No	-$5	08-29 07:00
Will Teresa Surita win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?	29	$245	376	136	+240	Yes	+$6	09-05 19:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 05:11:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	No	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0xa76502…
10-22 05:10:59	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x1aa671…
10-22 05:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	39	30¢	$12	0x91e34f…
10-22 05:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x86404a…
10-22 05:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x6373d0…
10-22 05:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xfdaf7b…
10-22 05:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xe3b9a9…
10-22 05:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x87bb20…
10-22 05:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x67fcfb…
10-22 05:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0x602f87…
10-22 05:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x3734e2…
10-22 05:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xf47bbf…
10-22 05:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x929aa8…
10-22 05:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	40	29¢	$12	0x6a8de3…
10-22 05:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x4bd6d2…
10-22 05:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x33a829…
10-22 05:10:51	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x4718c1…
10-22 05:10:45	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$5	0x3da670…
10-22 05:10:42	Will FC Zhetysu be relegated from the 2026 Kazakhstan Premier League?	No	BUY	31	55¢	$17	0x36fea4…
10-22 05:10:41	Will PP win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xf5f177…
10-22 05:10:39	Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x6d1dd1…
10-22 05:10:38	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x211775…
10-22 05:10:30	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 8%+?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x98063a…
10-22 05:10:30	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x7578ad…
10-22 05:10:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	62	43¢	$27	0xff1717…
10-22 05:10:15	Will StripChain launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	21¢	$13	0x2ceb7d…
10-22 05:10:14	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0x9297de…
10-22 05:10:14	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 23?	No	BUY	38	75¢	$28	0x21d7f2…
10-22 05:10:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 23?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x5387f9…
10-22 05:10:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0xf7b5f9…
10-22 05:10:08	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	No	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0xf67bf8…
10-22 05:10:03	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xeb22f0…
10-22 05:10:03	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x590201…
10-22 05:10:03	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x35c847…
10-22 05:10:03	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x1d3f77…
10-22 05:09:56	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $153 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x941373…
10-22 05:09:54	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x1c9650…
10-22 05:09:53	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	Yes	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0xb7da52…
10-22 05:09:53	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 23?	No	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0x933656…
10-22 05:09:53	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	No	BUY	0	19¢	$0	0x532ff1…
10-22 05:09:50	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on October 23?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x00bb0c…
10-22 05:09:48	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on October 23?	No	BUY	36	46¢	$16	0xdad63d…
10-22 05:09:44	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-04 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0xdabe59…
10-22 05:09:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x9411be…
10-22 05:03:35	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x536d4d…
10-22 05:03:33	Will Egypt win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group B?	No	BUY	40	34¢	$14	0x5858d9…
10-22 05:03:20	Will Angola win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group B?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x02227e…
10-22 05:03:17	Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	77	32¢	$25	0x29c61b…
10-22 05:03:12	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x1a78fe…
10-22 05:03:09	Will PP win the most seats in Navarre in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x689a76…
10-22 05:03:06	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	11	59¢	$7	0xb4824e…
10-22 05:02:29	Will Egypt win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group B?	Yes	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0xac1053…
10-22 05:02:11	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x9e58c8…
10-22 05:02:09	Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x28e61f…
10-22 05:01:41	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x8cf69d…
10-22 05:01:29	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?	No	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0xdbb6ad…
10-22 05:01:29	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 23?	No	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0xbb4283…
10-22 05:01:29	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x588a94…
10-22 05:01:29	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x35d4bb…
10-22 05:01:05	Will AP call US Senate control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x2354e9…
10-22 05:00:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	102	37¢	$38	0x324621…
10-22 05:00:53	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on October 23?	Yes	BUY	32	46¢	$15	0xf80019…
10-22 05:00:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-14 House election by 5%-15%?	No	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0x53a867…
10-22 05:00:53	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on October 23?	Yes	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x2fa13b…
10-22 05:00:50	Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	22	25¢	$6	0xc85f9e…
10-22 05:00:36	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 23?	No	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x62e197…
10-22 05:00:27	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0xb0359f…
10-22 05:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0x65d62c…
10-22 05:00:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x8f5c7e…
10-22 05:00:17	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0xdb48a4…
10-22 05:00:17	Will Celta Vigo finish top 8 in UEL league phase?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xc2fefd…
10-22 05:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0x6f7f79…
10-22 05:00:17	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 23?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x363b55…
10-22 05:00:15	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.35% in October?	No	BUY	40	64¢	$26	0x46527f…
10-22 04:59:57	Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x716dcc…
10-22 04:59:57	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x144794…
10-22 04:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x14f7df…
10-22 04:59:53	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	32	32¢	$10	0x8f5650…
10-22 04:59:48	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x61c275…
10-22 04:59:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xf104af…
10-22 04:59:41	Will Javonte Williams have 13.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x469c29…
10-22 04:59:39	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x967c99…
10-22 04:59:39	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $144 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x578e5f…
10-22 04:59:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xc1ad2d…
10-22 04:59:38	Will Podemos win the most seats in Madrid in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x68f77a…
10-22 04:59:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xe8e1ce…
10-22 04:59:24	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0xe92087…
10-22 04:59:24	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x89ce43…
10-22 04:59:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0x9d25d7…
10-22 04:59:20	Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0xec3a5b…
10-22 04:59:09	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth <-0.5%?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x5c79d3…
10-22 04:58:48	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x8f254c…
10-22 04:58:09	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x304101…
10-22 04:57:51	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-25 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x374a48…
10-22 04:57:42	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-25 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xbc8dc2…
10-22 04:57:41	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-25 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xf3adae…
10-22 04:57:32	Will November be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0x7acd9c…
10-22 04:57:24	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x48bd51…
10-22 04:56:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x7a08a3…
10-22 04:56:47	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x2102e2…