Gentle-Shingle 0xd925e4…15f36f Create alert
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Realized P&L
+$53
Unrealized P&L
-$211
Hit rate
54.9%
Resolved
8,121
Trades
17,159
lifetime
Volume
$234.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$828
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-31
last 11-02 19:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 153 days
Categories
Other
55% 58% +$613
Crypto
39% 58% -$1,916
Sports
4% 50% +$1,331
Politics
2% 53% -$114
Tech
1% 54% +$139
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 1125 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No -200 -$196 99¢ $-198 -$2 05-12 10:19
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +295 $153 56¢ $164 +$11 11-02 08:24
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +101 $73 76¢ $76 +$3 11-02 05:54
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +41 $26 84¢ $34 +$8 10-25 23:02
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +42 $25 77¢ $33 +$7 09-17 14:43
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +49 $26 62¢ $30 +$5 09-30 20:48
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +187 $99 14¢ $27 -$72 09-17 14:14
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? Yes +39 $28 61¢ $24 -$4 10-21 10:02
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes +24 $11 98¢ $23 +$12 10-02 11:37
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +30 $23 72¢ $22 -$1 11-01 19:10
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +30 $15 68¢ $21 +$6 10-27 11:53
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? Yes +35 $20 58¢ $20 +$0 11-02 17:38
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +34 $26 52¢ $18 -$8 09-17 14:23
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +20 $14 76¢ $15 +$1 11-01 19:21
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +20 $14 74¢ $15 +$1 11-01 19:13
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +20 $15 72¢ $14 $0 11-02 17:40
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? Yes +20 $13 68¢ $14 +$0 11-02 17:40
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? Yes +20 $13 66¢ $13 +$1 11-02 17:24
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $9 98¢ $10 +$1 11-01 11:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +11 $6 66¢ $7 +$1 10-27 08:39
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Yes +46 $22 15¢ $7 -$15 09-17 14:21
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +219 $42 3¢ $6 -$35 09-18 05:33
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No +7 $3 82¢ $6 +$3 09-21 11:43
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes +15 $5 38¢ $6 +$0 11-02 13:35
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $3 26¢ $5 +$2 09-10 19:18
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No +267 $142 2¢ $5 -$136 10-05 01:30
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Yes +5 $4 100¢ $5 +$1 10-31 15:39
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +16 $9 23¢ $4 -$5 09-17 14:19
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat? Yes +5 $3 60¢ $3 $0 11-01 19:22
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +3 -$2 68¢ $2 +$4 10-27 17:02