Ill-Informed-Fly — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved

Trades

135

lifetime

Volume

$12.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$93

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 05-31 06:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 100% +$0

Other

18% 100% +$3

Sports

14% 0% $-3

Politics

7% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$302	154	154	+0	open	—	05-26 10:52
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$216	108	108	+0	open	—	03-09 03:33
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$216	108	108	+0	open	—	03-07 03:43
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$211	106	106	+0	open	—	02-13 04:44
will china win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$211	106	106	+0	open	—	02-10 08:08
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$211	106	106	+0	open	—	02-13 05:10
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$204	103	103	+0	open	—	03-09 03:54
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$203	102	102	+0	open	—	03-24 08:00
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$202	101	101	+0	open	—	03-17 06:58
will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	03-31 07:07
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-23 06:30
Will Sofia Kenin win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-24 05:00
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-25 11:55
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-26 11:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	2	$197	99	99	+0	open	—	04-12 07:23
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	2	$195	98	98	+0	open	—	04-12 08:48
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23?	1	$158	158	0	+158	open	—	05-23 12:37
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	1	$158	158	0	+158	open	—	05-21 07:34
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	1	$158	158	0	+158	open	—	05-24 12:56
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	1	$156	156	0	+156	open	—	05-26 10:58
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19?	1	$155	155	0	+155	open	—	05-19 07:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17?	1	$155	155	0	+155	open	—	05-17 10:43
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	1	$155	155	0	+155	open	—	05-18 06:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$155	155	0	+155	open	—	05-15 10:49
spy closes above 715 on may 20 2026	1	$153	155	0	+155	open	—	05-20 11:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	1	$152	152	0	+152	open	—	05-27 04:22
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?	1	$151	151	0	+151	No	+$0	05-09 11:30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?	1	$149	149	0	+149	open	—	05-14 05:59
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?	1	$147	147	0	+147	No	+$0	05-10 11:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$145	145	0	+145	No	+$0	05-11 09:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-31 06:23:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0xf84f64…
05-30 06:31:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0x5f75a5…
05-28 04:51:45	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0xaff593…
05-28 04:37:30	Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings	Dallas Wings	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x91f147…
05-27 04:22:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0x355d1f…
05-26 10:58:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0x0dcc39…
05-26 10:54:19	Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Colorado Rockies	BUY	8	33¢	$2	0x75c50a…
05-26 10:52:39	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	154	96¢	$148	0x682528…
05-25 08:33:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0xf3787a…
05-25 08:31:28	Roland Garros ATP: Yibing Wu vs Marcos Giron	Yibing Wu	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xd7fedd…
05-24 12:56:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	158	100¢	$158	0x84844c…
05-23 12:37:24	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23?	Yes	BUY	158	100¢	$158	0xa0de1f…
05-21 07:34:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	158	100¢	$158	0xfc7f7e…
05-21 06:45:45	LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	HANJIN BRION	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0xd088e4…
05-20 11:18:43	spy closes above 715 on may 20 2026	Yes	BUY	155	99¢	$153	0xc41a9a…
05-20 11:12:18	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic	Emma Navarro	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x69a85b…
05-19 07:00:34	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0x146c12…
05-18 06:46:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0xe91fc0…
05-17 10:43:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0x58fdcf…
05-15 10:49:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0x3200bb…
05-14 05:59:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0xa8633d…
05-14 05:28:30	Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	Team Spirit	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x30d6ad…
05-11 09:45:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0xc304bd…
05-11 09:28:17	Oeiras 4: Darwin Blanch vs Jack Pinnington Jones	Jack Pinnington Jones	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x167c28…
05-10 11:24:56	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0xe8bf41…
05-10 11:22:46	St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x925c5a…
05-09 11:30:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x275a59…
05-07 15:25:10	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x4ca2b5…
05-07 07:25:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x022b22…
05-03 05:49:56	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 3?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3ec79e…
04-30 06:40:28	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3e4a15…
04-28 07:58:38	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x135dca…
04-27 07:41:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xaea1ed…
04-26 12:08:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0x3b5443…
04-26 11:42:34	Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$99	0x1c924b…
04-26 11:23:24	Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x281c2f…
04-25 12:09:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0x9da522…
04-25 11:55:30	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$99	0x4770e0…
04-25 11:34:12	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x7d54e1…
04-24 05:04:20	will the price of bitcoin be between 84000 86000 on april 24	No	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0x29ab2f…
04-24 05:00:46	Will Sofia Kenin win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$99	0x3f0ac5…
04-24 04:38:20	Will Sofia Kenin win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb2d248…
04-23 06:35:16	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 23	No	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0x5a945a…
04-23 06:30:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x1acd66…
04-23 05:26:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x453e4e…
04-21 12:49:56	bitcoin above 80k on april 21	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3455ff…
04-20 06:05:46	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 115 139	No	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0x749ceb…
04-19 12:38:22	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 19	No	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0x5a331b…
04-17 08:51:34	bitcoin above 70k on april 17	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x4cd109…
04-14 07:01:25	will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on april 14	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x68ae89…
04-14 06:08:45	wta paquet wa 2026 04 13	Xinyu Wang	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x8190f8…
04-13 02:44:45	bitcoin above 76k on april 13	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x4c180e…
04-12 08:56:29	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0xa5b5eb…
04-12 08:48:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	No	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0x5e9a64…
04-12 07:25:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0xa0d213…
04-12 07:24:05	nba uta lal 2026 04 12	Jazz	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x97a04f…
04-12 07:23:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	No	SELL	99	100¢	$98	0x372971…
04-12 07:06:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x81414d…
04-11 07:50:29	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 11	No	BUY	99	100¢	$98	0xf5f0aa…
04-10 08:51:43	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 300 319	No	BUY	99	100¢	$98	0x6f6de6…
04-09 11:43:47	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 9	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xb7d24e…
04-07 10:38:33	bitcoin above 64k on april 7	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xc06a27…
04-06 05:25:31	will the price of ethereum be between 1800 1900 on april 6	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x8e687d…
04-05 04:03:49	solana above 70 on april 5	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xa44b45…
04-05 04:02:27	lol tsw gam 2026 04 05	GAM Esports	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xcbb3d7…
04-04 12:41:55	bitcoin above 70k on april 4	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x15d4ea…
04-02 07:25:23	ethereum above 1700 on april 2	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x586abd…
04-01 12:29:25	will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on april 1	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf8cb34…
03-31 07:14:09	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 31	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa39d90…
03-31 07:07:03	will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xef53b0…
03-31 06:47:31	will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x255fd2…
03-31 06:45:27	mlb nym stl 2026 03 31	New York Mets	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xdc6d14…
03-30 08:28:16	ethereum above 2300 on march 30	No	BUY	105	100¢	$104	0x7fbecf…
03-29 05:54:28	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 29	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xa2e3c0…
03-29 04:26:46	nba gsw den 2026 03 29	Warriors	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x0dee09…
03-28 10:24:49	will the price of ethereum be between 1700 1800 on march 28	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x05df09…
03-28 10:17:19	nhl ott tb 2026 03 28	Lightning	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x9ab108…
03-28 02:16:55	will bitcoin dip to 64k on march 27	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x0d136e…
03-27 15:13:35	ted cruz of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 180 199	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x842039…
03-25 04:07:01	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 25	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x6b9e1b…
03-24 08:28:11	will the price of bitcoin be less than 64000 on march 24	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x745609…
03-24 08:00:23	Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0xff4ef9…
03-24 07:39:43	Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xd12b38…
03-22 07:49:59	will bitcoin reach 80k march 16 22	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x953a42…
03-21 12:33:17	bitcoin above 68k on march 21	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x91e877…
03-20 10:39:21	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 400 419	No	BUY	102	100¢	$101	0x53668e…
03-18 07:26:01	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on march 18	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x3e41b7…
03-17 07:11:37	bitcoin above 80k on march 17	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x69ba2b…
03-17 06:58:45	Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x16464c…
03-17 06:33:05	Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xbfc590…
03-16 12:58:55	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2500 on march 16	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xa16d5c…
03-16 12:05:09	atp piros valle 2026 03 16	Zsombor Piros	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x80a24d…
03-14 11:17:19	will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x56ef4b…
03-13 10:07:19	bitcoin above 66k on march 13	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$110	0xf0fb42…
03-12 07:47:07	will the price of ethereum be between 1600 1700 on march 12	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x10ef75…
03-10 08:56:01	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on march 10	No	BUY	111	100¢	$110	0x7a8a13…
03-09 03:59:25	bitcoin above 60k on march 9	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xbbe385…
03-09 03:54:43	Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	103	100¢	$102	0x7334de…
03-09 03:37:41	Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$102	0x2f3b5c…
03-09 03:35:35	nhl ott van 2026 03 09	Senators	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x8066d6…