Grizzled-Filth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$570

Unrealized P&L

+$188

Hit rate

52.8%

Resolved

450

Trades

5,698

lifetime

Volume

$343.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

$2.11K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-27 20:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 105 days

Categories

Other

53% 43% -$5,848

Politics

40% 60% +$8,998

Sports

4% 25% -$2,728

Crypto

3% 44% -$992

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-2,000	-$2,102	97¢	$-1938	+$164	10-27 16:59
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes		+398	$150	44¢	$174	+$24	10-22 19:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 7	67	$23.0K	17,120	15,120	+2,000	Yes	+$283	03-07 21:06
will iran strike israel on march 4	76	$14.5K	53,060	12,660	+40,400	Yes	+$10,121	03-06 20:15
will uae strike iran by march 31	54	$13.9K	11,961	11,961	+0	No	-$4,313	03-09 09:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	30	$11.3K	5,239	7,239	-2,000	open	—	10-27 16:59
will iran strike israel on march 5	71	$10.5K	9,891	9,383	+507	Yes	+$626	03-05 13:33
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	236	$10.4K	7,942	7,534	+408	Yes	-$1,111	04-06 01:24
will iran strike israel on march 6	86	$8.7K	21,335	8,742	+12,593	No	+$1,471	03-11 11:42
iran closes its airspace by june 8	8	$7.4K	4,411	4,411	+0	Yes	+$132	06-07 20:52
will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	37	$6.7K	5,069	5,069	+0	Yes	-$2,172	03-08 18:09
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	247	$6.6K	7,614	7,614	+0	Yes	-$49	03-15 19:40
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	15	$6.6K	5,901	6,001	-100	Yes	-$255	03-07 17:49
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	54	$6.5K	5,256	5,256	+0	Joao Fonseca	+$973	05-31 21:42
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	34	$6.4K	4,514	3,514	+1,000	Joao Fonseca	-$662	05-29 17:30
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$6.4K	21,924	17,924	+4,000	No	-$1,935	07-18 01:24
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	15	$6.3K	4,049	4,049	+0	No	-$569	03-08 20:20
will israel or the us target fordow nuclear facility	89	$5.7K	4,464	4,604	-140	No	+$890	03-18 02:09
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider	49	$5.2K	7,000	5,000	+2,000	Diana Shnaider	-$2,678	06-03 13:42
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	164	$4.6K	4,813	4,873	-60	No	-$200	04-01 22:56
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	157	$4.5K	3,894	3,863	+30	Yes	-$130	04-26 20:43
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	112	$4.4K	4,347	4,128	+219	Yes	-$133	05-11 04:17
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	93	$4.4K	2,635	2,635	+0	Yes	+$126	04-20 03:22
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	129	$4.1K	3,812	3,812	+0	No	-$310	03-26 17:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	9	$4.0K	2,280	2,280	+0	Yes	+$510	03-01 01:31
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya	10	$3.9K	7,691	6,691	+1,000	Anna Kalinskaya	-$3	06-01 12:01
will iran strike israel on march 3	29	$3.8K	58,259	10,376	+47,883	Yes	+$1,180	03-05 21:54
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	80	$3.7K	3,611	3,413	+198	Yes	-$643	05-04 00:25
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	95	$3.6K	2,154	2,154	+0	No	+$138	04-20 03:23
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	44	$3.6K	5,093	5,093	+0	No	-$978	03-17 15:33
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	9	$3.5K	2,600	2,385	+215	No	-$973	06-15 17:42
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon	9	$3.4K	2,476	2,476	+0	Matteo Arnaldi	+$1,545	05-30 20:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:01:42	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	435	68¢	$295	0x54f862…
10-27 20:01:23	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	30	72¢	$22	0xc5605b…
10-27 17:49:18	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x31be5a…
10-27 17:28:02	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	121	71¢	$86	0xda23d8…
10-27 17:13:00	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	81	71¢	$58	0x76be09…
10-27 17:12:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x869867…
10-27 17:11:36	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0xffe096…
10-27 17:11:23	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x8edf21…
10-27 17:11:15	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x40d084…
10-27 17:09:59	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	25	71¢	$18	0xfa4e7c…
10-27 16:59:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0xb90f7a…
10-27 16:53:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xe98c38…
10-27 16:53:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1,899	96¢	$1,823	0xe30167…
10-27 16:28:44	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	48	67¢	$32	0x8d6323…
10-24 11:21:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	130	95¢	$124	0x59997f…
10-23 16:48:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	SELL	61	70¢	$43	0x734501…
10-23 16:48:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	SELL	149	70¢	$104	0xcad873…
10-23 16:48:15	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x504e7f…
10-23 16:48:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xcf2741…
10-23 16:48:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xe215fb…
10-23 16:48:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xd1224a…
10-23 16:47:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x2ad4ce…
10-23 16:47:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x1a48f4…
10-23 16:46:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x24167e…
10-23 11:36:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0x81ac21…
10-23 05:44:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	220	47¢	$103	0x405df9…
10-22 19:38:51	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	388	38¢	$146	0x8b2cea…
10-22 18:53:47	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x6de9ae…
10-22 12:55:12	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	63	95¢	$60	0x946329…
10-22 12:41:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	300	96¢	$287	0x19a99a…
10-22 11:14:24	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	112	8¢	$9	0xe0e3be…
10-22 11:14:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x76b127…
10-22 11:14:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x5dca45…
10-22 11:14:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x58f311…
10-22 11:14:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	152	8¢	$12	0x13c8a6…
10-22 11:14:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	6	8¢	$1	0x9f1076…
10-22 11:14:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	59	8¢	$5	0x9aae33…
10-22 11:14:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x88ad19…
10-22 11:14:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x59369d…
10-22 11:14:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	151	8¢	$12	0x25d0d6…
10-22 11:14:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x19a2ac…
10-22 11:14:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	151	8¢	$12	0xecff4d…
10-22 11:14:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0x9f6d54…
10-22 11:14:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0x83b535…
10-22 11:14:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x7da1cb…
10-22 11:14:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0x169b0e…
10-22 11:14:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	151	8¢	$12	0x0791aa…
10-22 11:12:45	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xd53dc4…
10-22 11:12:15	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xa15663…
10-22 11:12:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x95c90d…
10-22 11:11:45	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xba298e…
10-22 11:11:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0x32d68b…
10-22 11:11:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0xde87c8…
10-22 11:11:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x32d135…
10-22 11:09:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	51	8¢	$4	0xe0d19d…
10-22 11:09:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	49	8¢	$4	0x2a6faa…
10-21 19:24:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	750	96¢	$717	0x53195c…
10-21 19:03:03	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	SELL	3,077	11¢	$338	0x9e1605…
10-21 17:15:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x69207f…
10-21 16:59:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xab4562…
10-21 16:49:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0xd51308…
10-21 16:49:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	3,000	2¢	$45	0x5c654b…
10-20 16:29:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	959	96¢	$916	0x7f2f98…
10-19 13:21:20	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xedab8a…
10-19 13:19:50	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xa19654…
10-19 13:19:50	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x39b258…
10-19 13:19:50	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x2870b4…
10-19 13:19:33	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	120	91¢	$109	0x0e29f0…
10-19 13:00:54	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	110	93¢	$102	0x76b3b0…
10-19 13:00:42	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	824	92¢	$758	0xfa0df3…
10-19 13:00:38	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	359	91¢	$325	0xf27be6…
10-15 16:17:31	Roanne: Moise Kouame vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	Moise Kouame	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xa6ef24…
10-15 16:15:14	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,506	0¢	$8	0xd61d40…
10-15 16:15:04	Lisbon: Mathilde Lollia vs Clara Burel	Mathilde Lollia	SELL	2,000	2¢	$40	0xdd1ea5…
10-15 16:13:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	908	23¢	$210	0x91157c…
10-15 16:12:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	426	23¢	$100	0x966909…
10-15 16:11:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	707	42¢	$300	0x10490f…
10-15 16:10:16	atp donnet martin 2026 10 15	Etienne Donnet	BUY	278	36¢	$100	0x77e6f9…
10-15 16:07:28	Lisbon: Mathilde Lollia vs Clara Burel	Mathilde Lollia	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0xed7c33…
10-15 16:07:14	Lisbon: Mathilde Lollia vs Clara Burel	Mathilde Lollia	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x0ebe60…
10-15 16:05:53	atp donnet martin 2026 10 15	Etienne Donnet	BUY	300	53¢	$159	0xcb21b7…
10-15 05:25:35	wta svitoli guo 2026 10 15	Hanyu Guo	BUY	300	13¢	$39	0x4bc5dc…
10-14 09:58:07	wta volynet guo 2026 10 13	Hanyu Guo	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xa151e4…
10-14 09:57:28	wta ribera curmi 2026 10 14	Marina Bassols Ribera	BUY	300	39¢	$117	0xceb65f…
10-12 11:06:24	Wuhan Tennis Open: Caty McNally vs Yulia Starodubtseva	Yulia Starodubtseva	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x2a891a…
10-12 11:04:11	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	185	66¢	$122	0x2cc211…
10-12 11:03:48	Wuhan Tennis Open: Caty McNally vs Yulia Starodubtseva	Yulia Starodubtseva	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x27eb4b…
10-12 11:03:17	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x737ae5…
10-12 11:02:08	Wuhan Tennis Open: Caty McNally vs Yulia Starodubtseva	Yulia Starodubtseva	BUY	400	38¢	$152	0x29f77d…
10-08 19:09:05	Antofagasta: Joaquin Aguilar vs Lautaro Midon	Lautaro Midon	SELL	300	99¢	$297	0x3b6bf4…
10-08 19:07:17	Antofagasta: Joaquin Aguilar vs Lautaro Midon	Lautaro Midon	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x67e32c…
10-08 19:06:54	Antofagasta: Joaquin Aguilar vs Lautaro Midon	Lautaro Midon	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xc74fd4…
10-08 19:06:42	Antofagasta: Joaquin Aguilar vs Lautaro Midon	Lautaro Midon	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x3ce4b2…
10-08 15:15:15	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	2,651	10¢	$265	0x4dd1bb…
10-07 11:50:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0xb6e183…
10-07 11:49:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	98	49¢	$48	0x3a2153…
10-07 11:47:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xdb1455…
10-07 11:47:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x5e0719…
10-07 11:47:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	22	39¢	$9	0x8fdf16…
10-07 11:47:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x8a13dc…