Ill-Adaptation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$69

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.8%

Resolved

379

Trades

14,406

lifetime

Volume

$130.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 06-20 01:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 90% +$69

Other

2% — —

Politics

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 683 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026	11	$848	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	02-06 10:29
val var geng 2026 02 05	19	$766	450	450	+0	open	—	02-05 14:22
spx up or down on january 27 2026	7	$384	250	250	+0	open	—	01-27 14:55
spx opens up or down on february 6 2026	4	$378	300	300	+0	open	—	02-06 02:17
spx opens up or down on january 27 2026	3	$237	150	150	+0	open	—	01-27 09:36
spx up or down on february 6 2026	4	$196	140	140	+0	open	—	02-06 11:37
bitcoin up or down january 25 9pm et	43	$133	235	0	+235	open	—	01-26 02:57
btc updown 5m 1772212800	8	$119	120	0	+120	open	—	02-27 17:25
btc updown 5m 1773706500	3	$118	120	0	+120	open	—	03-17 00:19
btc updown 5m 1771798800	3	$114	115	0	+115	open	—	02-22 22:24
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	8	$111	122	0	+122	open	—	02-09 02:39
bitcoin up or down february 1 8pm et	44	$105	215	0	+215	open	—	02-02 01:56
btc updown 5m 1773615900	11	$104	180	0	+180	open	—	03-15 23:09
bitcoin up or down january 30 6pm et	45	$99	190	0	+190	open	—	01-30 23:44
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	4	$93	92	92	+0	open	—	01-27 10:23
btc updown 5m 1773339600	12	$92	100	0	+100	open	—	03-12 18:25
val tl1 ulf 2026 02 05	11	$89	90	78	+11	open	—	02-05 21:56
bitcoin up or down january 31 6pm et	35	$82	165	0	+165	open	—	01-31 23:21
bitcoin up or down january 31 1pm et	35	$78	160	0	+160	open	—	01-31 18:35
bitcoin up or down january 31 5pm et	38	$78	158	0	+158	open	—	01-31 22:37
btc updown 5m 1773668400	3	$75	80	0	+80	open	—	03-16 13:44
bitcoin up or down january 30 12pm et	31	$71	145	0	+145	open	—	01-30 17:35
bitcoin up or down january 31 9pm et	37	$69	140	0	+140	open	—	02-01 02:39
btc updown 5m 1771581900	15	$69	70	0	+70	open	—	02-20 10:09
btc updown 5m 1771770000	3	$68	70	0	+70	open	—	02-22 14:25
bitcoin up or down january 30 5pm et	22	$68	120	0	+120	open	—	01-30 22:56
bitcoin up or down january 30 11am et	30	$68	140	0	+140	open	—	01-30 16:37
solana up or down january 29 7pm et	18	$67	140	0	+140	open	—	01-30 00:52
btc updown 5m 1771793100	2	$63	65	0	+65	open	—	02-22 20:48
bitcoin up or down february 1 7pm et	30	$63	128	0	+128	open	—	02-02 00:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 08:13:31	eth updown 15m 1781942400	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x22b7fb…
06-20 06:58:26	eth updown 15m 1781937900	Up	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xe41c71…
06-20 01:43:43	btc updown 15m 1781919000	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x4ee827…
06-20 01:09:08	btc updown 5m 1781917500	Down	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x470785…
06-20 00:58:43	btc updown 15m 1781916300	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x5f51df…
06-20 00:58:25	eth updown 15m 1781916300	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x3f19f6…
06-20 00:54:28	btc updown 5m 1781916600	Down	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x1ac1c6…
06-19 19:13:43	btc updown 15m 1781895600	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xafa9ec…
06-19 19:13:22	eth updown 15m 1781895600	Down	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x2a5706…
06-19 17:28:23	eth updown 15m 1781889300	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xb496f6…
06-19 16:28:58	btc updown 15m 1781885700	Down	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x608b4a…
06-19 16:28:23	eth updown 15m 1781885700	Down	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xaec306…
06-19 16:28:23	eth updown 15m 1781885700	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x0c2a4a…
06-19 16:28:22	eth updown 15m 1781885700	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xcf4232…
06-19 16:13:23	eth updown 15m 1781884800	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x14879d…
06-19 15:58:22	eth updown 15m 1781883900	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x60a9a7…
06-19 15:13:22	eth updown 15m 1781881200	Down	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x945bc3…
06-19 14:58:22	eth updown 15m 1781880300	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x76904f…
06-19 14:43:58	btc updown 15m 1781879400	Up	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0xdd95d3…
06-19 14:43:58	btc updown 15m 1781879400	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8cd96b…
06-19 14:43:23	eth updown 15m 1781879400	Up	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x829ac5…
06-19 10:44:01	eth updown 15m 1781865000	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x032b31…
06-19 10:28:29	eth updown 15m 1781864100	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x4f9afc…
06-19 09:28:23	eth updown 15m 1781860500	Down	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xe93907…
06-19 08:29:13	eth updown 15m 1781856900	Down	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0x66c7d2…
06-19 08:13:05	sol updown 15m 1781856000	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xc7c3d3…
06-19 07:28:23	eth updown 15m 1781853300	Up	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0x40b9af…
06-19 06:58:07	sol updown 15m 1781851500	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xd7929c…
06-19 06:13:23	eth updown 15m 1781848800	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xe5b94a…
06-19 05:58:38	eth updown 15m 1781847900	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x79f452…
06-19 05:43:23	eth updown 15m 1781847000	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xb88ace…
06-19 03:58:26	eth updown 15m 1781840700	Up	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xb84209…
06-19 02:43:31	eth updown 15m 1781836200	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x1a0608…
06-19 00:13:29	eth updown 15m 1781827200	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x50717a…
06-18 23:13:22	eth updown 15m 1781823600	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x9b9f62…
06-18 22:13:22	eth updown 15m 1781820000	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x06a683…
06-18 22:12:55	sol updown 15m 1781820000	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xbcd636…
06-18 21:44:11	eth updown 15m 1781818200	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x130bd3…
06-18 21:28:31	eth updown 15m 1781817300	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x681939…
06-18 21:27:43	sol updown 15m 1781817300	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xf78bfb…
06-18 20:28:26	eth updown 15m 1781813700	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xc3ab9c…
06-18 19:59:25	sol updown 15m 1781811900	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xefaebd…
06-18 19:59:25	sol updown 15m 1781811900	Up	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x3d77ee…
06-18 19:59:20	sol updown 15m 1781811900	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x11bc64…
06-18 19:57:43	sol updown 15m 1781811900	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xa761b9…
06-18 19:39:08	btc updown 5m 1781811300	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x4374cc…
06-18 19:29:08	btc updown 5m 1781810700	Up	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xb77a07…
06-18 19:12:47	sol updown 15m 1781809200	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x0ac1e3…
06-18 18:43:23	eth updown 15m 1781807400	Down	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x8e8d09…
06-18 17:58:23	eth updown 15m 1781804700	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x700d91…
06-18 17:29:16	sol updown 15m 1781802900	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xd12a22…
06-18 17:29:16	sol updown 15m 1781802900	Up	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x1c1c0c…
06-18 17:29:07	eth updown 15m 1781802900	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x52dc27…
06-18 17:29:05	btc updown 15m 1781802900	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xff4538…
06-18 16:44:13	eth updown 15m 1781800200	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xedc570…
06-18 16:44:11	eth updown 15m 1781800200	Up	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0x13bc3a…
06-18 16:29:29	btc updown 15m 1781799300	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x5177bb…
06-18 16:28:22	eth updown 15m 1781799300	Down	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xe76e13…
06-18 16:27:44	sol updown 15m 1781799300	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xbdd4b2…
06-18 15:59:07	eth updown 5m 1781798100	Down	BUY	11	70¢	$7	0x056281…
06-18 15:49:16	eth updown 5m 1781797500	Down	BUY	10	74¢	$8	0x20720a…
06-18 15:34:19	btc updown 5m 1781796600	Up	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xfc4d00…
06-18 15:24:26	btc updown 5m 1781796000	Down	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xd39cd8…
06-18 14:58:53	eth updown 15m 1781793900	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x9bb717…
06-18 14:58:22	eth updown 15m 1781793900	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x0280cb…
06-18 14:58:01	sol updown 15m 1781793900	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x9919b3…
06-18 14:58:01	sol updown 15m 1781793900	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x7a3625…
06-18 14:44:02	btc updown 15m 1781793000	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x599ca5…
06-18 14:42:56	sol updown 15m 1781793000	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xcbb1e6…
06-18 14:29:19	btc updown 15m 1781792100	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x65adce…
06-18 14:28:40	sol updown 15m 1781792100	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x3d8301…
06-18 14:28:23	eth updown 15m 1781792100	Up	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xa1b1aa…
06-18 14:12:43	sol updown 15m 1781791200	Down	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xe4135e…
06-18 13:58:52	btc updown 15m 1781790300	Up	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xc18454…
06-18 13:58:43	eth updown 15m 1781790300	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x8bd7e0…
06-18 13:28:37	eth updown 15m 1781788500	Down	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x6ef3d6…
06-18 13:13:16	sol updown 15m 1781787600	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xe975c9…
06-18 12:58:29	eth updown 15m 1781786700	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x8a6a74…
06-18 11:28:31	eth updown 15m 1781781300	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x897515…
06-18 11:28:29	eth updown 15m 1781781300	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xd31808…
06-18 10:43:22	eth updown 15m 1781778600	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x2f5bae…
06-18 09:58:55	eth updown 15m 1781775900	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x18f1ee…
06-18 08:28:22	eth updown 15m 1781770500	Up	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x84ce48…
06-18 08:13:28	eth updown 15m 1781769600	Down	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xae191d…
06-18 07:13:44	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x01824b…
06-18 05:58:43	btc updown 15m 1781761500	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x1a7338…
06-18 05:43:29	eth updown 15m 1781760600	Up	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xb16051…
06-18 05:39:10	btc updown 5m 1781760900	Down	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xd8d915…
06-18 05:28:55	btc updown 15m 1781759700	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x8309e5…
06-18 05:13:23	eth updown 15m 1781758800	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xb3f703…
06-18 04:54:13	btc updown 5m 1781758200	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x91c59a…
06-18 04:44:26	eth updown 5m 1781757600	Down	BUY	12	64¢	$7	0x4b5050…
06-18 04:43:43	btc updown 15m 1781757000	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf0ba23…
06-18 04:29:38	eth updown 15m 1781756100	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x2250a9…
06-18 04:29:37	eth updown 15m 1781756100	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x14c4f2…
06-18 03:44:04	btc updown 15m 1781753400	Down	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x097335…
06-18 03:43:23	eth updown 15m 1781753400	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x9b5aee…
06-18 01:58:52	btc updown 15m 1781747100	Down	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x7c3c23…
06-18 01:58:44	btc updown 15m 1781747100	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x02ef00…
06-18 00:28:23	eth updown 15m 1781741700	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xf8761c…