Ill-Adaptation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$69

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.8%

Resolved

379

Trades

15,408

lifetime

Volume

$138.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 07-09 12:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 90% +$69

Other

2% — —

Politics

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 428 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026	11	$848	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	02-06 10:29
val var geng 2026 02 05	19	$766	450	450	+0	open	—	02-05 14:22
spx up or down on january 27 2026	7	$384	250	250	+0	open	—	01-27 14:55
spx opens up or down on february 6 2026	4	$378	300	300	+0	open	—	02-06 02:17
spx opens up or down on january 27 2026	3	$237	150	150	+0	open	—	01-27 09:36
spx up or down on february 6 2026	4	$196	140	140	+0	open	—	02-06 11:37
bitcoin up or down january 25 9pm et	43	$133	235	0	+235	open	—	01-26 02:57
btc updown 5m 1772212800	8	$119	120	0	+120	open	—	02-27 17:25
btc updown 5m 1773706500	3	$118	120	0	+120	open	—	03-17 00:19
btc updown 5m 1771798800	3	$114	115	0	+115	open	—	02-22 22:24
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	8	$111	122	0	+122	open	—	02-09 02:39
bitcoin up or down february 1 8pm et	44	$105	215	0	+215	open	—	02-02 01:56
btc updown 5m 1773615900	11	$104	180	0	+180	open	—	03-15 23:09
bitcoin up or down january 30 6pm et	45	$99	190	0	+190	open	—	01-30 23:44
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	4	$93	92	92	+0	open	—	01-27 10:23
btc updown 5m 1773339600	12	$92	100	0	+100	open	—	03-12 18:25
val tl1 ulf 2026 02 05	11	$89	90	78	+11	open	—	02-05 21:56
bitcoin up or down january 31 6pm et	35	$82	165	0	+165	open	—	01-31 23:21
bitcoin up or down january 31 1pm et	35	$78	160	0	+160	open	—	01-31 18:35
bitcoin up or down january 31 5pm et	38	$78	158	0	+158	open	—	01-31 22:37
btc updown 5m 1773668400	3	$75	80	0	+80	open	—	03-16 13:44
bitcoin up or down january 30 12pm et	31	$71	145	0	+145	open	—	01-30 17:35
bitcoin up or down january 31 9pm et	37	$69	140	0	+140	open	—	02-01 02:39
btc updown 5m 1771581900	15	$69	70	0	+70	open	—	02-20 10:09
btc updown 5m 1771770000	3	$68	70	0	+70	open	—	02-22 14:25
bitcoin up or down january 30 5pm et	22	$68	120	0	+120	open	—	01-30 22:56
bitcoin up or down january 30 11am et	30	$68	140	0	+140	open	—	01-30 16:37
solana up or down january 29 7pm et	18	$67	140	0	+140	open	—	01-30 00:52
btc updown 5m 1771793100	2	$63	65	0	+65	open	—	02-22 20:48
bitcoin up or down february 1 7pm et	30	$63	128	0	+128	open	—	02-02 00:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 12:29:34	btc updown 5m 1783599900	Up	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xf94311…
07-09 12:28:49	btc updown 15m 1783599300	Down	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0xab0fc7…
07-09 12:28:49	btc updown 15m 1783599300	Down	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x056897…
07-09 08:19:04	sol updown 5m 1783584900	Down	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xe64e6b…
07-09 08:13:50	eth updown 15m 1783584000	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xfa0e5a…
07-09 08:07:49	btc updown 5m 1783584300	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xf504da…
07-09 07:58:43	btc updown 15m 1783583100	Down	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xbb1563…
07-09 07:45:44	btc updown 5m 1783583100	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x08cdc6…
07-09 07:43:43	btc updown 15m 1783582200	Up	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x40c6ae…
07-09 07:38:58	sol updown 5m 1783582500	Down	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0xd17024…
07-09 07:28:59	eth updown 15m 1783581300	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xea2695…
07-09 07:20:26	btc updown 5m 1783581600	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x22d483…
07-09 07:05:14	btc updown 5m 1783580700	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xdb070d…
07-09 07:04:13	btc updown 5m 1783580400	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xdd844d…
07-09 06:58:25	eth updown 15m 1783579500	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xde9658…
07-09 06:48:22	btc updown 5m 1783579500	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x658dbb…
07-09 05:18:34	btc updown 5m 1783574100	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xd8cab9…
07-09 05:13:44	btc updown 15m 1783573200	Up	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x5e6bc6…
07-09 05:13:38	eth updown 15m 1783573200	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x75b07e…
07-09 05:00:08	btc updown 5m 1783573200	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe0adf8…
07-09 04:47:50	btc updown 5m 1783572300	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x89417e…
07-09 04:01:07	btc updown 5m 1783569600	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x53af37…
07-09 03:05:11	btc updown 5m 1783566300	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xfe63e3…
07-09 02:50:37	btc updown 5m 1783565400	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x6581bc…
07-09 02:46:05	btc updown 5m 1783565100	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x22aecc…
07-09 02:35:14	btc updown 5m 1783564500	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xa3c431…
07-09 02:00:56	btc updown 5m 1783562400	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x91df50…
07-09 01:58:50	btc updown 5m 1783562100	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xccc4a9…
07-09 01:50:11	btc updown 5m 1783561800	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x863862…
07-09 01:20:26	btc updown 5m 1783560000	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xc7d320…
07-09 01:10:07	btc updown 5m 1783559400	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x4b8e69…
07-09 00:53:59	sol updown 5m 1783558200	Down	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x1b4dee…
07-09 00:10:08	btc updown 5m 1783555800	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x86f96e…
07-08 22:07:22	btc updown 5m 1783548300	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe0d304…
07-08 21:43:32	eth updown 15m 1783546200	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x12a7d1…
07-08 20:43:23	eth updown 15m 1783542600	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbf6c74…
07-08 19:58:44	eth updown 15m 1783539900	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb804b2…
07-08 19:43:25	eth updown 15m 1783539000	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x759036…
07-08 18:38:13	btc updown 5m 1783535700	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x7cff1b…
07-08 18:16:14	btc updown 5m 1783534500	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x2f20d2…
07-08 17:50:52	btc updown 5m 1783533000	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x3d11a2…
07-08 17:43:43	btc updown 15m 1783531800	Down	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xd866ca…
07-08 17:36:08	btc updown 5m 1783532100	Up	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0xd1c958…
07-08 17:31:34	btc updown 5m 1783531800	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xdfb8bf…
07-08 17:26:37	btc updown 5m 1783531500	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xfa39e3…
07-08 17:20:13	btc updown 5m 1783531200	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x904afd…
07-08 16:39:56	btc updown 5m 1783528500	Up	BUY	4	85¢	$4	0x97957e…
07-08 16:39:56	btc updown 5m 1783528500	Up	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0x7c55b4…
07-08 16:30:20	btc updown 5m 1783528200	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x20a823…
07-08 16:10:08	btc updown 5m 1783527000	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xec1dad…
07-08 15:31:35	btc updown 5m 1783524600	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x449f20…
07-08 15:28:43	btc updown 15m 1783523700	Up	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0xac7290…
07-08 15:28:23	eth updown 15m 1783523700	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xabb95f…
07-08 15:26:13	btc updown 5m 1783524300	Down	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0xb960d9…
07-08 15:08:25	btc updown 5m 1783523100	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xf4c967…
07-08 15:01:11	btc updown 5m 1783522800	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xaad8d1…
07-08 14:52:34	btc updown 5m 1783522200	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x918574…
07-08 14:45:08	btc updown 5m 1783521900	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x912b27…
07-08 14:44:22	eth updown 15m 1783521000	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb85272…
07-08 14:44:22	btc updown 15m 1783521000	Down	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x1dd82d…
07-08 14:44:16	eth updown 5m 1783521600	Down	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0xce3701…
07-08 14:44:14	eth updown 5m 1783521600	Down	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0xf2e0ae…
07-08 14:44:14	btc updown 5m 1783521600	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x905596…
07-08 14:44:13	btc updown 5m 1783521600	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xd40117…
07-08 14:44:13	btc updown 5m 1783521600	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x21a73a…
07-08 14:34:19	btc updown 5m 1783521000	Down	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0xd3001a…
07-08 14:28:43	btc updown 15m 1783520100	Down	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0xcc66ac…
07-08 14:28:23	eth updown 15m 1783520100	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x628f66…
07-08 14:27:44	sol updown 15m 1783520100	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xb28e12…
07-08 14:27:44	sol updown 15m 1783520100	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x9cfd64…
07-08 14:22:19	btc updown 5m 1783520400	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xb58922…
07-08 14:20:13	btc updown 5m 1783520400	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x44f08a…
07-08 14:13:08	sol updown 15m 1783519200	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x5ada85…
07-08 14:10:13	btc updown 5m 1783519800	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xd4c6f8…
07-08 14:05:08	btc updown 5m 1783519500	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x18f3e4…
07-08 14:00:35	btc updown 5m 1783519200	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x75f033…
07-08 13:58:49	eth updown 15m 1783518300	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xabe957…
07-08 13:58:49	btc updown 15m 1783518300	Down	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x91457d…
07-08 13:55:46	btc updown 5m 1783518900	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xfd2762…
07-08 13:54:10	btc updown 5m 1783518600	Down	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0x62a289…
07-08 13:50:11	btc updown 5m 1783518600	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xe3e29a…
07-08 13:45:10	btc updown 5m 1783518300	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xf3a619…
07-08 13:43:28	eth updown 15m 1783517400	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x1342e5…
07-08 13:35:07	btc updown 5m 1783517700	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x233e26…
07-08 13:30:16	btc updown 5m 1783517400	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x592371…
07-08 13:28:29	eth updown 15m 1783516500	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7b8b79…
07-08 13:25:08	btc updown 5m 1783517100	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xb21976…
07-08 13:14:11	btc updown 15m 1783515600	Down	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x5668dd…
07-08 13:13:34	eth updown 15m 1783515600	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x658aac…
07-08 13:12:59	sol updown 15m 1783515600	Down	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x94c42d…
07-08 13:05:58	btc updown 5m 1783515900	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x650b28…
07-08 12:56:22	btc updown 5m 1783515300	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xe6080a…
07-08 12:28:23	eth updown 15m 1783512900	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe287b6…
07-08 12:05:16	btc updown 5m 1783512300	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xd1d5af…
07-08 10:43:49	eth updown 15m 1783506600	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa27d44…
07-08 10:13:22	eth updown 15m 1783504800	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x3b305e…
07-08 10:05:25	btc updown 5m 1783505100	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xdbc74a…
07-08 09:42:55	btc updown 5m 1783503600	Up	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x15c8e0…
07-08 09:22:08	btc updown 5m 1783502400	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xfa8af0…
07-08 09:15:22	btc updown 5m 1783502100	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1ad485…