Thin-Progression — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.15K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

94.8%

Resolved

6,138

Trades

8,595

lifetime

Volume

$169.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$16

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 21:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 226 days

Categories

Crypto

71% 92% -$1,081

Other

27% 94% -$40

Sports

2% 95% -$28

Politics

0% 100% +$4

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 118 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-10-28?	No	—	+11	$10	100¢	$11	+$1	10-28 18:43
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes		+8	$5	72¢	$6	+$0	09-07 13:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lol bro2 drx 2026 08 04	4	$281	142	142	+0	Kiwoom DRX	+$4	08-04 13:51
lol dk t1 2026 08 06 game1	3	$261	131	131	+0	T1	+$1	08-06 11:42
lol kt hle1 2026 08 02 game2	3	$243	123	123	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$3	08-02 13:28
lol tes jdg 2026 08 02 game1	3	$241	121	121	+0	Top Esports	+$1	08-02 12:48
ethereum up or down january 12 4pm et	4	$237	120	120	+0	Down	+$2	01-12 22:06
bitcoin up or down january 11 10am et	8	$235	240	0	+240	Down	+$5	01-11 15:55
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 spread away 1pt5	4	$225	115	115	+0	France	+$5	06-16 21:08
lol t1 hle1 2026 08 04 game2	3	$225	115	115	+0	T1	+$5	08-04 08:06
lol tog khk 2026 08 05	3	$224	114	114	+0	Team Orange Gaming	+$4	08-05 20:44
lol dnsc dkc 2026 08 03 game2	3	$223	113	113	+0	DN SOOPers Challengers	+$3	08-03 12:31
lol gen hle1 2026 08 03 game2	3	$222	112	112	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$2	08-03 10:24
lol genga hle 2026 08 04	3	$202	102	102	+0	Hanwha Life Esports Challengers	+$2	08-04 10:39
lol t1a ktc 2026 08 04 game1	3	$202	102	102	+0	T1 Academy	+$2	08-04 11:44
lol tog khk 2026 08 05 game2	5	$202	102	102	+0	Team Orange Gaming	+$2	08-05 20:44
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?	2	$202	102	102	+0	No	+$2	07-05 16:29
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 England?	3	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	07-11 22:14
lol gen dnf 2026 08 04 game1	3	$201	101	101	+0	Gen.G	+$1	08-04 10:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-09 14:15 UTC	1	$200	202	0	+202	Up	+$2	01-09 14:27
bitcoin up or down january 6 4pm et	1	$199	200	0	+200	Up	+$1	01-06 21:53
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 20:30 UTC	6	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	01-05 20:42
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 22:30 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	01-04 22:40
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 20:30 UTC	2	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	01-05 20:44
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 18:45 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	01-05 18:56
ethereum up or down january 4 6am et	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	01-04 11:49
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-07 10:00 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	01-07 10:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 19:00 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	01-04 19:10
solana up or down january 6 12pm et	2	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	01-06 17:51
bitcoin up or down january 12 12pm et	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	01-12 17:45
solana up or down january 6 4pm et	5	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	01-06 21:46
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 23:15 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	01-01 23:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 18:43:43	Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x7db76f…
10-28 18:43:02	Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x500ebb…
10-28 18:42:04	Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	71	98¢	$70	0x2bda9d…
10-27 21:59:18	Swiss Indoors Basel: Stan Wawrinka vs Jiri Lehecka	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x71d357…
10-27 21:58:24	Kosner Baskonia vs. Real Madrid	Real Madrid	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x523187…
10-27 21:54:59	Will Fleetwood Town FC win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x9609a7…
10-27 21:52:11	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x5fb277…
10-27 21:44:15	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x092085…
10-27 21:41:38	Kosner Baskonia vs. Real Madrid	Real Madrid	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x46c64d…
10-27 21:41:02	Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-10-27?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xe781d1…
10-27 21:37:15	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x6051ae…
10-27 21:35:36	Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4db075…
10-27 21:34:29	Panathinaikos vs. Olimpia Milano	Panathinaikos	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xb19eb0…
10-27 21:23:02	Panathinaikos vs. Olimpia Milano	Panathinaikos	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xf78c82…
10-27 21:15:05	Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x6c84c1…
10-27 21:14:48	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x57392b…
10-27 21:14:09	Will Bradford City AFC win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x397aa5…
10-27 21:13:21	Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-27?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xc8b82f…
10-27 20:42:26	Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x4a0244…
10-27 20:33:03	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xcd4779…
10-27 20:28:20	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x2cccf1…
10-27 20:14:59	Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xf30c7b…
10-27 20:14:17	Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xe68965…
10-27 19:54:44	Panathinaikos vs. Olimpia Milano	Panathinaikos	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x95411e…
10-26 22:24:03	Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x32ea22…
10-26 21:44:03	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0xd44ef1…
10-26 21:43:38	Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-26?	No	SELL	72	100¢	$71	0x248528…
10-26 21:23:15	Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-10-26?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x42a952…
10-26 19:36:47	Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-26?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x8003c9…
10-26 19:36:36	Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-26?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x7de754…
10-26 19:36:14	Exact Score: CD Santa Clara 2 - 0 Sport Lisboa e Benfica?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc5d9ee…
10-26 19:35:24	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x22bac6…
10-25 22:20:45	AHL: Rockford IceHogs vs. Toronto Marlies	Rockford IceHogs	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xab32a9…
10-25 22:19:56	Rams vs. Raiders	Rams	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xd508a6…
10-25 21:32:18	Rams vs. Raiders	Rams	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xd87196…
10-25 21:31:33	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x387e19…
10-25 21:16:53	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x357eaf…
10-25 21:14:21	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x9b1d6a…
10-25 20:06:21	Will KAA Gent win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xfe48b6…
10-25 20:05:15	49ers vs. Falcons	Falcons	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x739e10…
10-25 20:01:44	49ers vs. Falcons	Falcons	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x713e29…
10-25 19:41:51	Dolphins vs. Jets	Dolphins	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x658555…
10-25 19:33:47	Bengals vs. Ravens	Bengals	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xaedb2a…
10-25 19:15:33	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x86c697…
10-25 19:05:12	Will Levante UD win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xdc7014…
10-25 19:03:33	Will KAA Gent win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x774bb8…
10-25 17:25:45	DEL: Krefeld Pinguine vs. EHC Red Bull München	EHC Red Bull München	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x7682b1…
10-25 17:24:42	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0x24a6a8…
10-25 16:16:41	Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x48decd…
10-25 16:16:33	Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x871e3d…
10-25 16:15:38	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	85	100¢	$85	0x1a7d28…
10-25 15:33:15	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x4dd7f9…
10-25 15:28:27	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x7c6735…
10-24 21:29:05	Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0x364f7f…
10-24 14:53:30	Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x734f97…
10-24 14:42:39	Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xaa3e8a…
10-21 18:15:08	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0x5c456b…
10-21 16:40:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xe6f0b6…
10-21 16:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x788089…
10-21 15:57:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x59f613…
10-21 15:57:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7f9caf…
10-21 12:44:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xebe51c…
10-21 12:43:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe13124…
10-21 12:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xae0259…
10-21 12:42:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1ad4bc…
10-21 11:55:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x89abf7…
10-21 11:12:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xdd003f…
10-21 11:11:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x04eee0…
10-21 11:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x7595e3…
10-21 10:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x955a1f…
10-21 10:57:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x45db04…
10-21 08:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x69d250…
10-21 08:57:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7450f3…
10-21 08:56:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfa7a6d…
10-21 08:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x095c33…
10-21 08:40:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x0ae04f…
10-21 08:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa6b001…
10-20 20:52:24	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xaa9610…
10-20 20:50:47	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x7e2544…
10-20 20:50:02	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xe41daa…
10-20 19:57:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xf9eaaf…
10-20 19:47:56	Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x79fa23…
10-20 19:47:17	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 FC Barcelona?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x42818a…
10-20 19:46:23	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1076d9…
10-20 19:45:53	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x3b4372…
10-20 19:39:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xcf0bff…
10-20 19:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x0bcab7…
10-20 19:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xaa8d48…
10-20 19:08:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x539874…
10-20 18:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x4c6186…
10-20 18:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7d90d1…
10-20 18:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5f0e08…
10-20 11:02:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x200639…
10-20 11:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0e3ab9…
10-20 10:55:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x3bc181…
10-20 10:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x8c2a25…
10-20 10:10:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x074d0f…
10-20 07:54:37	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xcd23d8…
10-20 07:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x8c1a4a…
10-20 05:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1ab335…