Uniform-Dependency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.05K

Unrealized P&L

+$137

Hit rate

75.3%

Resolved

141

Trades

310

lifetime

Volume

$125.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$403

Open exposure

$276

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-14 06:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Other

69% 59% +$775

Politics

18% 73% +$27

Crypto

13% 38% -$5,853

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes		+323	$200	62¢	$198	-$2	11-06 16:13
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes		-4,824	-$216	2¢	$-77	+$138	09-21 04:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	3	$3.2K	1,872	1,872	+0	Yes	+$555	09-21 04:37
bitcoin up or down on january 18	4	$3.0K	8,496	8,496	+0	Down	-$984	01-18 16:41
bitcoin up or down on january 19	10	$3.0K	28,582	28,582	+0	Down	-$2,938	01-19 14:41
us strikes iran by january 24 2026 318	3	$2.9K	1,163	1,792	-629	No	+$62	01-25 06:43
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	3	$2.4K	1,329	1,329	+0	Yes	+$227	06-16 01:22
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	4	$2.4K	1,760	1,760	+0	Yes	+$171	06-14 21:56
fifwc nor sen 2026 06 22 total 0pt5	2	$2.2K	1,220	1,220	+0	Over	+$218	06-23 00:52
fifwc jpn swe 2026 06 25 total 0pt5	2	$2.2K	1,190	1,190	+0	Over	+$189	06-26 00:44
fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 total 3pt5	2	$2.2K	1,179	1,179	+0	Over	+$178	06-24 22:58
fifwc jpn swe 2026 06 25 spread home 1pt5	2	$2.2K	1,176	1,176	+0	Sweden	+$175	06-26 01:03
fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	2	$2.2K	1,163	1,163	+0	Over	+$162	06-23 00:36
fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 spread home 1pt5	2	$2.1K	1,136	1,136	+0	United States	+$135	06-26 04:02
fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 spread home 2pt5	2	$2.1K	1,115	1,115	+0	Haiti	+$114	06-25 00:12
fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 total 1pt5	2	$2.1K	1,111	1,111	+0	Over	+$110	06-24 22:58
fifwc rsa kr 2026 06 24 total 0pt5	2	$2.1K	1,111	1,111	+0	Over	+$110	06-25 02:29
fifwc cze mex 2026 06 24 total 0pt5	2	$2.1K	1,111	1,111	+0	Over	+$110	06-25 02:18
fifwc ury cvi 2026 06 21 spread home 1pt5	2	$2.1K	1,111	1,111	+0	Cabo Verde	+$110	06-22 00:14
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	3	$2.1K	1,142	1,142	+0	No	+$104	01-15 14:04
fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 total 1pt5	2	$2.1K	1,103	1,103	+0	Over	+$92	06-22 02:19
fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 total 4pt5	2	$2.1K	1,124	1,124	+0	Over	+$90	06-26 03:59
fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 total 0pt5	2	$2.1K	1,087	1,087	+0	Over	+$86	06-24 03:48
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	2	$2.1K	1,087	1,087	+0	Yes	+$76	06-15 01:04
fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 total 0pt5	2	$2.1K	1,075	1,075	+0	Over	+$74	06-23 04:23
fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 total 0pt5	2	$2.1K	1,064	1,064	+0	Over	+$63	06-22 01:16
fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 0pt5	2	$2.1K	1,064	1,064	+0	Over	+$63	06-22 18:13
fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 spread away 3pt5	2	$2.1K	1,062	1,062	+0	New Zealand	+$53	06-22 02:22
fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 total 0pt5	2	$2.1K	1,053	1,053	+0	Over	+$52	06-24 00:21
fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 total 1pt5	2	$2.1K	1,053	1,053	+0	Over	+$52	06-26 02:13
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	2	$2.0K	1,045	1,045	+0	Yes	+$44	06-24 03:58
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	2	$2.0K	1,042	1,042	+0	Yes	+$41	06-14 05:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 06:22:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	667	2¢	$11	0xcc310e…
11-06 16:13:19	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	323	62¢	$200	0x97c95f…
10-25 15:11:51	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,351	77¢	$1,041	0x11257c…
10-14 12:35:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	588	37¢	$218	0xe6a30a…
10-05 15:32:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	846	84¢	$713	0x2ede39…
10-02 13:11:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	588	17¢	$100	0x92a334…
09-28 04:33:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 28?	Yes	SELL	150	73¢	$110	0x89a15b…
09-28 04:33:02	Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	Yes	SELL	328	91¢	$300	0xe30cf2…
09-28 04:32:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 28?	Yes	SELL	113	11¢	$13	0x67d85e…
09-28 01:31:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0x1a493b…
09-27 05:58:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 27?	No	SELL	109	95¢	$104	0x4566b5…
09-27 05:58:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 27?	Yes	SELL	117	93¢	$109	0x163376…
09-27 05:47:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0x8e0b4b…
09-27 05:45:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 27?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x37cd98…
09-27 05:35:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	113	44¢	$50	0x392a2e…
09-27 04:14:38	Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	Yes	BUY	328	91¢	$300	0xb089b3…
09-26 01:44:54	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,351	74¢	$1,000	0x6ccef6…
09-21 05:01:42	Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	BUY	1,178	85¢	$1,000	0x40a3d9…
09-21 05:00:24	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	490	41¢	$201	0x4db171…
09-21 05:00:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	846	59¢	$500	0x72304e…
09-21 04:51:39	Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	BUY	617	81¢	$500	0x1be428…
09-21 04:38:21	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,824	4¢	$216	0x8441f6…
09-21 04:37:30	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,872	99¢	$1,855	0x588273…
09-15 08:12:19	Trump on $250 bill this year?	Yes	SELL	1,110	3¢	$28	0xe82026…
09-03 14:51:03	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	423	71¢	$300	0x4a0ac7…
09-03 14:50:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x71f0cd…
08-09 13:06:21	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,449	69¢	$1,000	0x97d91b…
08-09 08:04:42	Will András Baka be the next President of Hungary?	Yes	SELL	824	100¢	$820	0xe2a3f7…
08-08 08:39:16	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0xedf0b9…
08-08 04:51:52	Will András Baka be the next President of Hungary?	Yes	BUY	824	73¢	$600	0x7a9a0a…
06-27 01:40:22	fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,266	46¢	$588	0x8e483e…
06-27 00:41:10	fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,266	79¢	$1,000	0xaf719e…
06-26 04:02:14	fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 spread home 1pt5	United States	SELL	1,136	100¢	$1,135	0x35619d…
06-26 03:59:38	fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 total 4pt5	Under	SELL	1,124	97¢	$1,090	0xbf2ff7…
06-26 03:57:53	fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	1,124	89¢	$1,000	0xde59bd…
06-26 03:41:37	fifwc par aus 2026 06 25 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	733	26¢	$187	0x90015d…
06-26 02:23:46	fifwc par aus 2026 06 25 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	733	68¢	$500	0x5e4c3c…
06-26 02:13:43	fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,053	100¢	$1,052	0x261a6e…
06-26 02:06:41	fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1,053	95¢	$1,000	0x0a2a6b…
06-26 01:38:13	fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 spread home 1pt5	United States	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0xed0c3d…
06-26 01:03:10	fifwc jpn swe 2026 06 25 spread home 1pt5	Sweden	SELL	1,176	100¢	$1,175	0x8b7eae…
06-26 00:44:02	fifwc jpn swe 2026 06 25 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,190	100¢	$1,189	0xb00617…
06-25 23:27:38	fifwc jpn swe 2026 06 25 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,190	84¢	$1,000	0x1b94f0…
06-25 23:25:49	fifwc jpn swe 2026 06 25 spread home 1pt5	Sweden	BUY	1,176	85¢	$1,000	0x25c68a…
06-25 02:29:58	fifwc rsa kr 2026 06 24 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,111	100¢	$1,110	0x8c37d2…
06-25 02:29:35	fifwc rsa kr 2026 06 24 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	758	56¢	$424	0x37922f…
06-25 02:18:47	fifwc cze mex 2026 06 24 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,111	100¢	$1,110	0x40c7c5…
06-25 01:23:49	fifwc cze mex 2026 06 24 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0x82a3b6…
06-25 01:09:46	fifwc rsa kr 2026 06 24 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0x877018…
06-25 01:07:55	fifwc rsa kr 2026 06 24 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	758	66¢	$500	0xec5b21…
06-25 00:12:10	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 spread home 2pt5	Haiti	SELL	1,115	100¢	$1,114	0xf2482b…
06-24 23:17:58	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 spread home 2pt5	Haiti	BUY	1,115	90¢	$1,000	0xf51edf…
06-24 22:58:26	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	1,179	100¢	$1,178	0xdfc9f8…
06-24 22:58:16	fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,111	100¢	$1,110	0xa12e5e…
06-24 22:44:05	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	1,179	85¢	$1,000	0x806be6…
06-24 22:20:02	fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0xea476e…
06-24 03:58:49	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 spread home 2pt5	DR Congo	SELL	1,029	100¢	$1,028	0xe4630f…
06-24 03:58:35	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	SELL	1,045	100¢	$1,044	0xff6eb9…
06-24 03:55:11	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	1,045	96¢	$1,000	0xf9b233…
06-24 03:48:31	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,087	100¢	$1,086	0xa4c731…
06-24 03:45:22	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 spread home 2pt5	DR Congo	BUY	1,029	97¢	$1,000	0xd46afd…
06-24 03:41:28	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 total 1pt5	Under	SELL	877	56¢	$491	0x6f6a41…
06-24 03:37:25	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	877	57¢	$500	0x4c0794…
06-24 03:29:28	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	704	16¢	$113	0xeb923e…
06-24 02:32:11	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	DR Congo	SELL	156	65¢	$102	0x0eedb8…
06-24 02:08:38	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	704	71¢	$500	0x12571e…
06-24 01:09:53	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	DR Congo	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xa07f47…
06-24 01:01:23	fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 spread away 2pt5	Panama	SELL	625	100¢	$624	0xc30692…
06-24 01:00:58	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0x80d4d9…
06-24 00:46:34	fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	667	34¢	$224	0xb4a392…
06-24 00:21:38	fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,053	100¢	$1,052	0x9cc080…
06-23 23:10:31	fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	667	75¢	$500	0x55dbc0…
06-23 23:05:58	fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 spread away 2pt5	Panama	BUY	625	80¢	$500	0x03ac16…
06-23 23:01:31	fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,053	95¢	$1,000	0x811ac7…
06-23 04:48:07	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 spread away 1pt5	Jordan	SELL	1,087	74¢	$807	0xad4ef4…
06-23 04:43:38	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 spread away 1pt5	Jordan	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0xbad113…
06-23 04:23:59	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,075	100¢	$1,074	0x4fc532…
06-23 04:23:29	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	650	68¢	$442	0x38a1c1…
06-23 03:04:50	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	650	77¢	$500	0x566fa3…
06-23 02:29:38	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,075	93¢	$1,000	0xadcfbe…
06-23 01:14:29	fifwc nor sen 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	641	100¢	$640	0x5800af…
06-23 01:12:53	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	685	73¢	$500	0xe22593…
06-23 00:52:34	fifwc nor sen 2026 06 22 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,220	100¢	$1,218	0x054970…
06-23 00:40:02	fifwc nor sen 2026 06 22 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,220	82¢	$1,000	0x822275…
06-23 00:36:47	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	179	100¢	$178	0x0c9016…
06-23 00:36:31	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,163	100¢	$1,162	0xd20efd…
06-22 23:50:26	fifwc nor sen 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	641	78¢	$500	0x898e2b…
06-22 22:40:50	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x370437…
06-22 22:40:17	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1,163	86¢	$1,000	0x99bba5…
06-22 22:15:34	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 spread home 4pt5	Iraq	SELL	610	93¢	$567	0xb29eb5…
06-22 18:56:20	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 spread home 4pt5	Iraq	BUY	610	82¢	$500	0xa4cc73…
06-22 18:46:01	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	667	39¢	$260	0xbe5ed8…
06-22 18:13:26	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,064	100¢	$1,063	0xfe8510…
06-22 08:24:44	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0xa692dc…
06-22 08:24:19	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	667	75¢	$500	0x8acca8…
06-22 02:22:11	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 spread away 3pt5	New Zealand	SELL	1,062	99¢	$1,053	0xfbb025…
06-22 02:19:52	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,103	99¢	$1,092	0x755104…
06-22 01:17:55	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1,103	91¢	$1,000	0xbbb172…
06-22 01:16:58	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	1,064	100¢	$1,063	0x998086…
06-22 00:43:08	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 spread away 3pt5	New Zealand	BUY	1,062	94¢	$1,000	0xa8d53b…