Dependent-Geranium — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

7.8%

Resolved

Trades

246

lifetime

Volume

$6.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 05-20 12:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

41% 0% $-12

Politics

20% 100% +$0

Crypto

14% — —

Sports

14% — —

Tech

10% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	4	$504	294	294	+0	open	—	04-25 12:11
crint bgd nzl 2026 04 17	1	$484	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	04-16 11:00
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	23	$454	572	572	+0	open	—	04-26 11:58
nhl nyr tb 2026 04 15	1	$340	0	970	-970	open	—	04-14 11:50
nhl tor ott 2026 04 15	4	$334	470	0	+470	open	—	04-14 12:02
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	3	$224	200	200	+0	open	—	04-25 10:55
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	3	$213	200	200	+0	open	—	04-26 12:57
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	4	$198	200	200	+0	open	—	01-22 11:24
will trump say soleimani during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	5	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	04-21 13:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$192	100	100	+0	open	—	04-28 12:58
Will Google reach $400 in April?	2	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	04-28 14:26
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$186	100	100	+0	open	—	04-18 06:32
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	2	$171	100	100	+0	open	—	04-18 09:21
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	2	$166	86	86	+0	open	—	04-28 13:53
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	8	$160	150	150	+0	open	—	05-15 05:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$156	100	100	+0	open	—	04-28 13:38
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	5	$131	100	100	+0	open	—	05-02 14:45
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	4	$130	100	100	+0	open	—	04-26 14:17
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?	5	$112	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 05:04
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	23	$106	503	503	+0	open	—	04-25 11:23
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 160 179	1	$102	102	0	+102	open	—	01-22 13:14
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	5	$99	100	100	+0	open	—	04-22 14:25
will yesways market cap be greater than 1pt0b at market close on ipo day	2	$96	50	50	+0	open	—	04-22 12:46
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?	2	$95	50	50	+0	open	—	04-18 04:30
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	3	$92	50	50	+0	open	—	04-26 14:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	2	$88	50	50	+0	open	—	05-20 12:06
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	9	$79	80	80	+0	open	—	04-22 14:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	5	$65	200	200	+0	open	—	04-18 07:35
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in May?	2	$63	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	05-05 13:31
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	1	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	02-25 13:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 12:06:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xed7354…
05-20 12:06:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xb87f5b…
05-19 12:00:01	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0xf7180c…
05-19 11:58:41	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xc55f76…
05-18 12:36:09	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May?	Yes	SELL	40	46¢	$18	0x6f9dec…
05-18 12:35:56	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May?	Yes	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0x3e34df…
05-15 05:10:52	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0xbfec27…
05-15 05:09:17	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0xf182d7…
05-15 05:09:17	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0xed0b62…
05-15 05:09:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0xa3bbef…
05-15 05:04:36	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0x40ba29…
05-15 04:55:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xc92ec5…
05-15 04:54:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xc3a317…
05-15 04:52:05	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$35	0x7e4c08…
05-14 13:08:11	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xed0f4f…
05-14 13:04:54	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x848658…
05-09 09:31:20	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xf5de04…
05-09 09:22:44	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x526ad8…
05-08 12:48:13	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?	No	SELL	50	21¢	$10	0x569768…
05-08 12:07:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x70a642…
05-08 12:06:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xce4b6c…
05-08 12:05:13	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?	No	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x06ca72…
05-05 13:37:16	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x7718e1…
05-05 13:31:48	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0x7dfdcf…
05-04 15:20:50	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0x52e579…
05-04 13:36:16	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0xd3f1a7…
05-04 13:32:38	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x1f69b8…
05-04 13:31:58	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?	Yes	BUY	32	44¢	$14	0xf4c9f2…
05-04 13:31:50	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x837db3…
05-04 13:30:38	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	Yes	BUY	30	47¢	$14	0x198b25…
05-04 13:30:36	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x648d7e…
05-04 12:58:50	Will Zoominfo Technologies (GTM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xe10059…
05-04 12:41:06	Will Zoominfo Technologies (GTM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x856926…
05-04 03:20:34	Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xcf7ff3…
05-04 02:48:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x88d623…
05-04 02:47:32	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xd43a9e…
05-04 02:30:32	Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xc11d58…
05-02 15:34:58	Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x38106b…
05-02 14:45:18	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	SELL	32	59¢	$19	0xab798e…
05-02 14:38:32	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	SELL	24	62¢	$15	0x4cbe5c…
05-02 14:33:20	Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x225c87…
05-02 14:17:18	FDA approves Daiichi Sankyo & AstraZeneca's Enhertu?	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x055a9e…
05-02 14:16:02	Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x68626c…
05-02 14:12:46	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?	No	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0x3ba612…
05-02 14:12:30	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	SELL	44	66¢	$29	0xb18b34…
05-02 14:07:28	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?	No	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0xecb33c…
05-02 14:06:12	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0xb5403a…
05-02 13:39:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x5f205c…
05-02 13:38:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xe7245e…
05-02 13:36:18	FDA approves Daiichi Sankyo & AstraZeneca's Enhertu?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x460126…
05-02 13:21:54	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xcc3091…
05-02 12:10:22	Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Up	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0x513179…
05-02 12:02:14	Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Up	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xb72c6c…
05-02 11:43:40	Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x5dac03…
05-02 11:42:36	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xc5c5d4…
05-02 05:22:12	Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	14¢	$2	0x1da479…
05-02 05:18:04	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x97f999…
05-02 05:16:54	Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xe72e16…
05-02 05:16:34	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?	No	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x19f987…
05-02 05:15:50	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?	No	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x3abf0b…
05-02 05:14:32	Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Up	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x9a1a68…
05-02 05:12:06	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	SELL	50	39¢	$20	0xed5fd2…
05-02 05:11:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0xb23c08…
05-02 04:48:52	Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x2d772c…
05-02 02:05:50	Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x31b563…
05-01 15:55:58	Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x66cd6c…
04-28 14:26:48	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?	No	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0xfb369b…
04-28 14:26:34	Will Google reach $400 in April?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x00dab7…
04-28 14:22:58	Will Google reach $400 in April?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xf61727…
04-28 13:53:56	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	SELL	86	97¢	$83	0x898991…
04-28 13:53:26	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	86	97¢	$83	0xfdbf6a…
04-28 13:38:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0xbedc4f…
04-28 13:37:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x9a381a…
04-28 13:06:42	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x1ee6be…
04-28 13:06:20	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x10bafe…
04-28 12:58:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xc77474…
04-28 12:57:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x9ee3d3…
04-28 10:56:56	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?	No	SELL	14	40¢	$6	0x249997…
04-28 10:54:46	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x47ca71…
04-28 08:41:48	The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office	The Devil Wears Prada 2	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0x67c8f2…
04-26 15:24:24	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?	Yes	SELL	90	2¢	$2	0x512570…
04-26 14:55:54	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xa2701d…
04-26 14:52:56	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x01cb4e…
04-26 14:19:50	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	No	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x71346a…
04-26 14:18:20	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x57d1d8…
04-26 14:17:36	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xf9d9d7…
04-26 14:17:10	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	Yes	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0xca541f…
04-26 14:16:36	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x08bde2…
04-26 12:57:14	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xd6f434…
04-26 12:49:08	The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office	The Devil Wears Prada 2	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0xaf0f47…
04-26 12:48:36	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	79	53¢	$42	0x624e50…
04-26 12:48:16	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	121	53¢	$65	0x75aaa1…
04-26 12:29:46	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	No	SELL	16	0¢	$0	0x03aa68…
04-26 12:29:00	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	No	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x981554…
04-26 12:29:00	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	No	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0x4e5228…
04-26 12:20:32	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x664161…
04-26 11:58:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x7fd8ed…
04-26 11:56:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x21c95d…
04-26 11:22:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0xdcf1e6…
04-26 11:22:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x80dec9…