Upset-Subject — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$9.48K

Unrealized P&L

-$6.65K

Hit rate

8.2%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

166

16,809 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$29.4K

$22.1M lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.32K

Open exposure

$9.24K

7 positions

First seen

2026-02-23

last 10-23 17:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Other

47% 42% +$275,892

Sports

33% 49% +$351,218

Politics

20% 52% -$17,673

Crypto

0% 57% -$842

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$97

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 148 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+47,504	$12,350	16¢	$7.8K	-$4,512	10-03 03:34
will oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2028	Yes	+4,203	$1,639	32¢	$1.4K	-$273	10-02 05:01
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	+75	$58	30¢	$22	-$36	10-03 04:30
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+370	$1,842	3¢	$11	-$1,831	05-13 10:15
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+4	$1	98¢	$4	+$3	10-22 22:25
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	+4	-$1	2¢	$0	+$1	10-22 20:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+0	$0	12¢	$0	$0	05-15 14:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	53	$2.88M	3,225,215	86,571	+3,138,644	No	+$307,802	07-08 06:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	422	$2.60M	2,559,742	59,742	+2,500,000	No	+$5,379	05-16 09:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	76	$1.08M	823,793	276,973	+546,820	No	+$13,755	05-11 20:50
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	495	$1.06M	1,167,211	713,352	+453,859	No	+$182,075	05-30 15:15
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	485	$912.2K	564,210	564,210	+0	Yes	$0	07-11 17:01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	356	$753.2K	435,922	435,922	+0	No	+$14,822	07-17 06:13
cbb ucf ucla 2026 03 20	276	$735.2K	567,230	527,385	+39,845	UCLA Bruins	+$3,643	03-20 22:13
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	669	$651.4K	1,012,458	1,012,458	+0	Yes	+$335,798	02-28 07:36
cbb pur arz 2026 03 28	94	$592.1K	1,013,955	1,013,955	+0	Arizona Wildcats	-$16,249	03-28 21:58
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	249	$586.3K	379,613	379,320	+293	No	+$1,187	06-29 18:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	50	$470.9K	594,354	43,000	+551,354	No	+$9,300	05-27 17:30
nba gsw phx 2026 04 17 total 219pt5	280	$406.8K	422,875	422,874	+1	Under	+$854	04-17 22:00
cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	2	$359.7K	321,120	321,120	+0	VCU Rams	-$6,422	03-19 14:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	347	$350.8K	1,076,641	988,355	+88,286	No	-$3,704	05-29 22:05
cbb iowa clmsn 2026 03 20	1,125	$322.8K	382,300	209,266	+173,034	Iowa Hawkeyes	+$75,348	03-20 22:13
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	68	$318.0K	366,563	365,508	+1,054	Yes	-$316,755	02-28 07:44
epl ars bou 2026 04 11 ars	8	$310.0K	500,000	500,000	+0	No	+$0	04-11 09:32
cbb tenn vir 2026 03 22	134	$306.9K	300,000	300,000	+0	Tennessee Volunteers	-$5,114	03-22 20:59
cbb tcu ohiost 2026 03 19	2	$284.6K	251,885	251,885	+0	TCU Horned Frogs	-$2,519	03-19 15:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	67	$248.9K	250,000	0	+250,000	No	+$1,136	05-09 00:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	16	$246.8K	128,311	128,311	+0	No	-$25	05-04 11:06
epl bou lee 2026 04 22 bou	177	$229.1K	229,748	229,747	+2	No	-$5,195	04-22 18:01
nba mia cha 2026 04 14	436	$226.1K	370,679	370,679	+0	Hornets	-$3,707	04-14 21:57
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	308	$211.1K	454,011	152	+453,859	Yes	-$211,002	05-30 15:14
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	295	$202.9K	342,842	127,715	+215,126	Yes	-$9,461	02-28 07:42
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	50	$183.3K	100,129	100,129	+0	Yes	+$1,040	05-22 04:07
cbb utahst arz 2026 03 22	144	$177.7K	600,000	600,000	+0	Arizona Wildcats	+$9,677	03-22 21:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	91	$161.6K	227,635	227,635	+0	No	-$7,523	05-21 19:16
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	175	$149.4K	77,994	77,994	+0	No	+$162	04-29 07:27
spx up or down on february 24 2026	32	$137.5K	65,176	74,883	-9,707	Up	+$137	02-24 19:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 14:35:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5,923	95¢	$5,621	0x9e47d3…
10-28 14:34:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20,568	95¢	$19,540	0xe99784…
10-28 14:31:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	18	95¢	$17	0x6a8751…
10-28 14:30:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	320	95¢	$305	0x7140f9…
10-28 14:29:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	26,829	94¢	$25,299	0x7f3ca5…
10-23 17:01:42	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	No	SELL	73	5¢	$4	0xfb03e8…
10-23 09:43:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0xd0958e…
10-23 08:07:23	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	Yes	SELL	95	15¢	$14	0xdd342c…
10-23 03:25:59	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	SELL	129	35¢	$45	0xebdaf2…
10-23 03:22:00	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	SELL	250	35¢	$87	0xa6b21b…
10-23 00:37:00	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	154	27¢	$42	0xf8fa10…
10-23 00:36:29	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x0f9764…
10-23 00:05:39	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x83baf1…
10-23 00:05:38	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x11c5a3…
10-22 23:56:18	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xf94407…
10-22 23:50:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	275	9¢	$25	0xeaa5bf…
10-22 23:19:57	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	370	27¢	$100	0xa1698e…
10-22 23:06:33	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xc45a91…
10-22 22:52:56	Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	165	13¢	$21	0x0cf7b7…
10-22 22:27:18	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	23	65¢	$15	0xd5651f…
10-22 22:25:03	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x2be604…
10-22 22:24:18	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	239	65¢	$155	0x071712…
10-22 22:19:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xcd7815…
10-22 22:19:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	23¢	$0	0xa9e194…
10-22 22:14:24	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	6	70¢	$5	0x247f68…
10-22 22:13:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	48	57¢	$27	0xbac331…
10-22 22:13:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	323	57¢	$184	0x827fb5…
10-22 22:13:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	30	57¢	$17	0x18d57e…
10-22 22:13:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x08f6a4…
10-22 22:11:18	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	6	70¢	$4	0x256706…
10-22 22:11:15	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	198	70¢	$139	0xf54cc3…
10-22 22:11:15	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	77	70¢	$54	0x7ec806…
10-22 22:10:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x9c4e0b…
10-22 22:10:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xa708ac…
10-22 22:10:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	515	57¢	$294	0x07fb86…
10-22 21:50:21	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xa5971c…
10-22 21:31:20	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	135	70¢	$94	0xb2ba7d…
10-22 21:31:20	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x85081e…
10-22 21:31:17	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xb71888…
10-22 21:31:17	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	510	71¢	$362	0x488105…
10-22 21:29:26	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	510	71¢	$362	0x338d5f…
10-22 21:28:14	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	505	71¢	$359	0xf58256…
10-22 21:27:53	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0xb4c7a4…
10-22 21:24:21	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	515	71¢	$366	0xf1b834…
10-22 21:04:27	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	182	71¢	$129	0x63736e…
10-22 21:03:14	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x024b50…
10-22 21:02:27	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x8bbcdb…
10-22 21:02:26	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x4a6a1b…
10-22 21:00:17	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xae2d2d…
10-22 21:00:15	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	13	71¢	$9	0x5030c1…
10-22 21:00:14	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x532e1f…
10-22 21:00:14	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x2cac64…
10-22 20:48:21	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	22	29¢	$6	0x01f938…
10-22 20:47:53	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	323	29¢	$93	0x8e1434…
10-22 20:34:36	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	345	29¢	$99	0x617531…
10-22 20:15:15	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	375	67¢	$251	0x453ad3…
10-22 20:00:41	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	No	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0x7f4a5a…
10-22 20:00:39	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	No	BUY	79	36¢	$29	0x0561c2…
10-22 19:40:20	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	375	67¢	$251	0x4bae2b…
10-22 19:31:21	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x5be7e2…
10-22 19:31:09	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xc568b1…
10-22 19:30:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	380	1¢	$5	0xebfd51…
10-22 19:29:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	380	1¢	$5	0x249ec6…
10-22 18:35:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	276	9¢	$25	0xbdebd7…
10-22 18:34:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	405	89¢	$360	0x972f45…
10-22 18:34:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	405	89¢	$360	0x6de87b…
10-22 18:32:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	42	9¢	$4	0xd5e25b…
10-22 18:32:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	150	9¢	$14	0x26baa0…
10-22 18:31:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	194	9¢	$17	0xe5aff3…
10-22 18:31:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	18	9¢	$2	0xf54964…
10-22 18:31:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	405	9¢	$36	0x3d5dab…
10-22 18:08:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	103	21¢	$22	0x1b8257…
10-22 18:04:09	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0x5c3278…
10-22 18:01:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xf81723…
10-22 18:00:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xbd888c…
10-22 17:59:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x1b3ff8…
10-22 17:57:15	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xfa5a96…
10-22 17:57:15	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x974fdd…
10-22 17:57:15	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x86d3ee…
10-22 17:57:15	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$0	0x455e5c…
10-22 17:57:15	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x416420…
10-22 17:57:14	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xf02347…
10-22 17:57:12	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x994fb3…
10-22 17:57:12	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x9803b3…
10-22 17:57:12	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x2855e7…
10-22 17:57:11	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$0	0x5a1add…
10-22 17:57:02	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x9dc8ea…
10-22 17:57:02	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x0e0152…
10-22 17:57:00	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0xdf461a…
10-22 17:57:00	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x96ed88…
10-22 17:57:00	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x8b1294…
10-22 17:57:00	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x24e9ef…
10-22 17:57:00	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x109eac…
10-22 17:56:51	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0xa2d17e…
10-22 17:56:51	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x5c60bf…
10-22 17:53:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x8bbd6d…
10-22 17:53:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x4af5cb…
10-22 17:52:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x5d2d76…
10-22 17:52:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x8127a9…
10-22 17:51:47	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	370	67¢	$248	0xcad10f…