Useless-Duration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$61

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

75.0%

Resolved

Trades

286

lifetime

Volume

$8.75K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$24

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-12 05:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Politics

74% 91% +$21

Crypto

18% 69% +$8

Other

7% 79% +$30

Sports

1% 0% $0

Tech

0% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No		-25	-$22	97¢	$-24	-$2	05-28 08:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	37	$4.6K	7,653	7,712	-58	No	+$9	03-20 04:30
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	14	$1.7K	1,319	1,919	-600	Yes	$0	03-20 03:16
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 06:30 UTC	1	$832	840	0	+840	Up	+$8	04-14 06:44
open up or down on april 14 2026	3	$140	70	210	-140	Up	+$0	04-14 06:32
will solana dip to 90 in january 2026	2	$137	70	70	+0	No	+$0	01-11 06:29
meta up or down on april 14 2026	9	$107	116	181	-65	Up	+$20	04-14 06:48
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 06:45 UTC	1	$94	94	0	+94	Up	+$0	04-14 06:59
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$71	87	87	+0	Yes	$0	07-18 04:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$67	600	600	+0	Yes	-$1	07-18 04:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	15	$63	281	270	+11	No	+$1	05-28 12:19
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$49	28	28	+0	open	—	10-12 05:17
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$40	23	23	+0	open	—	10-12 05:17
nyc air quality index below 100 by july 20 20260717052446993	3	$37	120	120	+0	Yes	-$1	07-18 04:36
amzn up or down on april 14 2026	5	$34	34	35	-1	Up	+$0	04-14 06:34
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$30	16	16	+0	open	—	09-18 10:35
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 00:45 UTC	5	$29	40	0	+40	Up	+$1	01-12 00:57
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	1	$24	25	0	+25	No	+$1	04-14 07:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 05:45 UTC	16	$23	22	22	+0	Up	-$1	01-10 05:58
gpt 5pt5 released by april 21 2026 173 332	3	$22	25	0	+25	No	+$2	04-14 07:57
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$22	0	25	-25	open	—	05-28 08:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	4	$21	210	200	+10	No	+$0	05-28 12:20
saudi arabia military action against yemen by march 31	1	$20	23	0	+23	No	+$3	03-20 06:18
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	10-12 05:17
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	10-12 05:17
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	10-12 05:17
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	1	$20	23	0	+23	No	+$3	03-20 05:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$2	05-28 12:16
trump approval up or down this week 857	1	$19	21	0	+21	Down	+$2	03-20 10:35
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	1	$19	20	0	+20	No	+$1	05-28 12:21
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	10-12 05:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 05:17:36	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	28	88¢	$24	0x7dfcc5…
10-12 05:17:27	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0x14cecf…
10-12 05:17:18	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x7fd6ee…
10-12 05:17:11	Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xd5cfc7…
10-12 05:17:02	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0xce4009…
10-12 05:16:56	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$9	0x2f2208…
09-18 12:05:48	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x98baa6…
09-18 12:05:25	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x36aed5…
09-18 12:04:34	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xa18a66…
09-18 12:04:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xf35f5a…
09-18 12:03:03	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x351af5…
09-18 10:35:42	Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0xcbe44c…
07-18 04:53:36	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x0578e1…
07-18 04:53:16	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xf0f867…
07-18 04:53:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xd12a2e…
07-18 04:52:28	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x51afa3…
07-18 04:52:10	Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xd190e8…
07-18 04:51:46	Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x7b0f0a…
07-18 04:51:31	will ethereum reach 2000 july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa09398…
07-18 04:51:13	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x2f0046…
07-18 04:50:58	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xac3c23…
07-18 04:50:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x21a2f1…
07-18 04:47:06	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	87	41¢	$35	0x46a34e…
07-18 04:45:34	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	87	41¢	$36	0x6319ef…
07-18 04:45:09	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x0bf93c…
07-18 04:38:27	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0x9ce4cc…
07-18 04:37:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	300	6¢	$16	0xfff1fb…
07-18 04:37:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	300	6¢	$17	0x608a60…
07-18 04:36:00	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 20 20260717052446993	No	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x478fd2…
07-18 03:45:31	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 20 20260717052446993	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x56c1ee…
07-18 02:46:01	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 20 20260717052446993	No	BUY	120	16¢	$19	0xf75139…
07-18 01:34:31	will timothee chalamet attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357134	No	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0x1d1b17…
07-18 00:08:52	will timothee chalamet attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357134	No	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0xf1becc…
07-17 23:07:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	300	6¢	$17	0x3c626a…
07-17 23:00:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	300	6¢	$17	0xb44697…
05-28 12:21:16	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x65050e…
05-28 12:21:02	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x315cc1…
05-28 12:20:54	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x4e7044…
05-28 12:20:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x60da65…
05-28 12:19:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x1071ac…
05-28 12:18:07	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x08a442…
05-28 12:18:00	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x17712e…
05-28 12:16:22	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x449b7e…
05-28 12:16:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x8e4d8c…
05-28 12:12:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x4dc735…
05-28 12:00:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	38	11¢	$4	0xd155d0…
05-28 11:35:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x3145c7…
05-28 10:46:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x1d6338…
05-28 10:33:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	160	3¢	$4	0x579130…
05-28 10:32:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x59787b…
05-28 10:26:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x28ca0a…
05-28 10:14:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	51	9¢	$5	0x2996f1…
05-28 10:00:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x8259ae…
05-28 09:58:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	48	9¢	$4	0x51fb83…
05-28 09:53:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	92	9¢	$8	0xa77f1a…
05-28 09:53:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	18	9¢	$2	0x2526e0…
05-28 09:05:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0xbd1d23…
05-28 09:04:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	23	10¢	$2	0x57a7d5…
05-28 08:58:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	52	11¢	$6	0x4e4124…
05-28 08:57:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xee1009…
05-28 08:56:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0xba223d…
05-28 08:52:09	Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	87¢	$22	0x07744f…
04-14 11:30:15	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0xe7984d…
04-14 07:57:49	gpt 5pt5 released by april 21 2026 173 332	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xb7a16b…
04-14 07:45:41	gpt 5pt5 released by april 21 2026 173 332	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x2b6b08…
04-14 07:45:03	gpt 5pt5 released by april 21 2026 173 332	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x40bf0a…
04-14 07:08:39	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x17eefe…
04-14 06:59:01	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0x20cd4c…
04-14 06:48:17	meta up or down on april 14 2026	Down	SELL	33	32¢	$11	0xf02bf2…
04-14 06:44:21	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	840	99¢	$832	0xc1bc0c…
04-14 06:37:27	meta up or down on april 14 2026	Down	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0x272bc1…
04-14 06:34:13	amzn up or down on april 14 2026	Down	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x3286e1…
04-14 06:33:51	amzn up or down on april 14 2026	Down	SELL	17	48¢	$8	0x1f62ea…
04-14 06:32:55	open up or down on april 14 2026	Down	SELL	140	50¢	$70	0x457bf0…
04-14 06:32:05	meta up or down on april 14 2026	Down	SELL	48	34¢	$16	0xe00608…
04-14 06:31:33	amzn up or down on april 14 2026	Down	BUY	17	48¢	$8	0x885730…
04-14 06:29:15	meta up or down on april 14 2026	Down	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x36dab9…
04-14 06:21:57	open up or down on april 14 2026	Up	SELL	70	50¢	$35	0x8ce913…
04-14 06:21:57	open up or down on april 14 2026	Down	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0x8ce913…
04-14 06:20:27	meta up or down on april 14 2026	Down	BUY	65	34¢	$22	0x04fee1…
04-14 06:07:59	amzn up or down on april 14 2026	Up	BUY	17	52¢	$9	0x205161…
04-14 06:01:39	amzn up or down on april 14 2026	Up	SELL	17	52¢	$9	0x4f9d9b…
04-14 04:11:47	meta up or down on april 14 2026	Down	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0x5615a1…
04-14 04:11:11	meta up or down on april 14 2026	Down	SELL	42	42¢	$17	0xd2c48d…
04-14 04:00:23	meta up or down on april 14 2026	Down	BUY	42	42¢	$17	0x15bd05…
04-14 03:36:37	meta up or down on april 14 2026	Down	BUY	8	42¢	$4	0x57ba5c…
03-20 10:35:47	trump approval up or down this week 857	Down	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0xb2e048…
03-20 06:18:11	saudi arabia military action against yemen by march 31	No	BUY	23	89¢	$20	0x6b99a6…
03-20 05:12:07	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x8b909e…
03-20 04:30:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0xed0edf…
03-20 03:48:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	836	22¢	$184	0x83e69a…
03-20 03:43:15	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0xba2487…
03-20 03:43:05	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	836	21¢	$176	0x3eb55f…
03-20 03:16:59	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	561	54¢	$303	0xf0c560…
03-20 03:15:07	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0xe2d7bd…
03-20 03:12:43	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	114	54¢	$61	0xb33c95…
03-20 03:09:23	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	12	54¢	$7	0x2a076d…
03-20 03:01:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	9	54¢	$5	0xca049c…
03-20 02:59:31	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x62aba9…
03-20 02:50:41	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	241	54¢	$130	0x57a6a2…