Rare-Ephemera — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$75

Unrealized P&L

+$94

Hit rate

74.2%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

177 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$1.53K

$6.67K lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

$268

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 11-04 12:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 70% -$141

Politics

12% 75% -$62

Other

5% 14% -$158

Sports

2% 40% +$45

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	+558	$130	41¢	$229	+$99	10-31 11:16
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?	Yes	+48	$20	38¢	$18	-$2	10-17 11:23
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+53	$10	20¢	$10	+$0	11-04 12:26
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+67	$10	15¢	$10	$0	11-04 12:26
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+88	$5	2¢	$1	-$4	10-20 10:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:35 UTC	8	$457	370	297	+73	Down	-$63	07-17 06:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:10 UTC	4	$450	380	177	+203	Up	+$53	07-16 21:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:20 UTC	5	$433	238	238	+0	Down	+$21	07-16 21:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:25 UTC	2	$405	232	230	+2	Up	-$33	07-16 21:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 20:05 UTC	3	$402	212	211	+1	Up	+$3	10-16 20:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:05 UTC	3	$350	262	108	+154	Up	+$4	07-16 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	3	$212	114	114	+0	Up	+$13	07-16 21:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:15 UTC	2	$199	154	50	+104	Up	+$3	07-16 21:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 11:25 UTC	4	$198	166	81	+85	Down	+$19	07-16 11:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 18:50 UTC	4	$192	186	185	+1	Down	-$8	10-16 18:51
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	5	$164	161	161	+0	No	-$100	05-19 13:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 19:45 UTC	7	$163	634	633	+1	Down	-$37	02-02 19:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:30 UTC	2	$140	390	0	+390	Up	-$140	07-16 21:34
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	3	$133	372	316	+56	Yes	-$67	01-20 18:06
Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	5	$130	558	0	+558	open	—	10-31 11:16
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$127	143	72	+72	Yes	+$39	03-18 16:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:55 UTC	4	$122	147	146	+1	Down	-$10	10-17 11:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 16:45 UTC	4	$112	84	83	+1	Up	+$2	07-16 16:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 11:40 UTC	3	$110	91	91	+0	Up	+$10	07-16 11:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 20:20 UTC	2	$110	68	68	+0	Down	+$10	10-16 20:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:40 UTC	3	$108	149	149	+0	Up	+$12	07-16 21:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 20:00 UTC	2	$105	62	61	+0	Up	+$5	02-02 20:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:10 UTC	2	$101	66	66	+0	Down	+$2	10-17 14:12
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$100	172	172	+0	No	-$100	02-08 20:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 16:40 UTC	2	$100	111	0	+111	Down	+$11	07-16 16:44
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	2	$99	62	62	+0	Yes	+$19	10-25 20:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:10 UTC	4	$96	55	55	+0	Down	-$4	07-17 07:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:35 UTC	2	$89	46	45	+1	Up	+$1	07-16 21:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 11:35 UTC	2	$85	125	125	+0	Up	+$25	07-16 11:38
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	2	$78	48	48	+0	Yes	+$18	11-04 11:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 12:26:36	Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x16c6e7…
11-04 12:26:31	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x2b6c66…
11-04 11:28:12	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x366945…
11-01 17:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x2524ef…
10-31 20:53:25	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0x2fc858…
10-31 11:16:07	Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x3eadf6…
10-28 06:01:31	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	61	35¢	$21	0xadf616…
10-27 13:12:41	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	61	65¢	$40	0xf9144c…
10-25 20:59:35	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0xaf0f31…
10-25 20:47:29	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	62	96¢	$59	0x1dbd64…
10-25 16:09:02	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	62	65¢	$40	0xec42d4…
10-22 05:56:23	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0x52349d…
10-22 05:56:07	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xf1ed2c…
10-20 10:29:17	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	6¢	$5	0x249b02…
10-19 21:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x621fe8…
10-19 15:31:14	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0xaa34eb…
10-18 12:15:23	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x96893f…
10-18 12:14:51	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x205c14…
10-18 12:14:33	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	61¢	$7	0x5a568b…
10-18 11:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xd2bcc8…
10-18 08:40:51	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0xe87a4d…
10-18 08:40:11	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Alexander Volkanovski	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x714aec…
10-17 14:12:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:10 UTC	Down	SELL	66	78¢	$51	0x8b065a…
10-17 14:12:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:10 UTC	Down	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x728017…
10-17 11:58:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:55 UTC	Up	SELL	4	12¢	$0	0x76ae22…
10-17 11:57:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:55 UTC	Up	SELL	142	39¢	$55	0x9587a5…
10-17 11:56:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xf3fa55…
10-17 11:55:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x4d2bfe…
10-17 11:30:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:30 UTC	Down	SELL	33	64¢	$21	0x7be3d0…
10-17 11:29:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x0dec93…
10-17 11:23:06	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xee4734…
10-17 11:14:32	Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	143	21¢	$30	0x436a50…
10-16 20:21:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 20:20 UTC	Up	SELL	68	88¢	$60	0xfe0e7b…
10-16 20:20:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xffdc73…
10-16 20:15:48	Will Daniel Fontaine win the 2026 New Westminster mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xf5a09b…
10-16 20:12:57	Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	150	20¢	$30	0x25570d…
10-16 20:07:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 20:05 UTC	Up	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x02aabb…
10-16 20:06:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 20:05 UTC	Up	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x7f08c4…
10-16 20:06:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	212	94¢	$200	0xf0bc0c…
10-16 18:58:44	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0xe32869…
10-16 18:51:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 18:50 UTC	Up	SELL	87	36¢	$31	0xdc8477…
10-16 18:50:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x7451f7…
10-16 18:49:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 18:50 UTC	Up	SELL	98	62¢	$61	0x27be76…
10-16 18:49:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x5c0862…
10-15 22:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0xb05c3a…
10-15 22:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x86af91…
10-15 16:30:13	Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xd07c91…
10-15 15:55:59	Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x264bb7…
07-17 11:23:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0xabffc6…
07-17 11:23:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:20 UTC	Up	SELL	38	36¢	$14	0x9e4e98…
07-17 11:22:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x7ac4cb…
07-17 11:21:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x2254a7…
07-17 11:20:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:15 UTC	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x8fcedd…
07-17 11:19:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xec42ab…
07-17 11:10:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x904814…
07-17 11:09:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x115f1b…
07-17 11:08:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:05 UTC	Down	SELL	26	78¢	$20	0x7b7b3e…
07-17 11:08:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	27	76¢	$21	0xf0a523…
07-17 07:17:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:15 UTC	Up	SELL	81	24¢	$20	0x38f2d6…
07-17 07:17:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	81	16¢	$13	0x7140c5…
07-17 07:16:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:15 UTC	Up	SELL	24	14¢	$3	0x675b01…
07-17 07:15:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:15 UTC	Up	SELL	24	56¢	$13	0xbc70b8…
07-17 07:15:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xe5686a…
07-17 07:14:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:10 UTC	Down	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x9bda60…
07-17 07:14:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x0e165f…
07-17 07:12:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:10 UTC	Down	SELL	33	75¢	$25	0x56c4a6…
07-17 07:11:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x5eabb4…
07-17 06:46:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:45 UTC	Up	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x62ae28…
07-17 06:45:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xbc94b6…
07-17 06:39:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0x31cf9d…
07-17 06:39:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:35 UTC	Up	SELL	80	84¢	$67	0x661f2b…
07-17 06:39:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0x9511d5…
07-17 06:38:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:35 UTC	Up	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0xdda336…
07-17 06:38:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:35 UTC	Up	SELL	72	61¢	$44	0x676938…
07-17 06:38:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0x88ead1…
07-17 06:37:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:35 UTC	Up	SELL	137	59¢	$81	0x2c6c67…
07-17 06:37:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	137	51¢	$70	0x964b8a…
07-16 21:49:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:45 UTC	Up	SELL	168	5¢	$8	0x7214ee…
07-16 21:46:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	175	32¢	$56	0x8a769d…
07-16 21:43:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0x84a94b…
07-16 21:42:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	143	41¢	$59	0x2b5735…
07-16 21:42:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	149	32¢	$48	0xacb98b…
07-16 21:40:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:35 UTC	Up	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x11d7e5…
07-16 21:39:25	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	41	14¢	$6	0x1784b6…
07-16 21:39:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0xbda748…
07-16 21:34:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	299	30¢	$90	0xc2f748…
07-16 21:31:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x52bba9…
07-16 21:29:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:25 UTC	Up	SELL	230	81¢	$185	0x643184…
07-16 21:28:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:25 UTC	Up	BUY	232	95¢	$220	0x347ef3…
07-16 21:25:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:20 UTC	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x0768ad…
07-16 21:24:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:20 UTC	Down	SELL	238	95¢	$226	0xf2c8a9…
07-16 21:23:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0xfa1f4b…
07-16 21:23:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	81	94¢	$76	0x75901b…
07-16 21:20:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xfc1485…
07-16 21:20:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:15 UTC	Up	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x3b1a59…
07-16 21:19:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:15 UTC	Up	BUY	154	97¢	$150	0x94535b…
07-16 21:14:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0x7bffa5…
07-16 21:13:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:10 UTC	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$1	0x7a5df9…
07-16 21:12:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:10 UTC	Up	SELL	175	85¢	$149	0x5a74fd…
07-16 21:12:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	177	57¢	$100	0xeedfae…