Favorite-Permafrost — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.06K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.1%

Resolved

Trades

323

lifetime

Volume

$38.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$119

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 07-18 11:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Sports

29% 33% $-328

Other

28% 60% $-486

Politics

22% — —

Crypto

21% 0% $-242

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	2	$6.1K	4,820	4,194	+627	open	—	04-14 09:20
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	2	$2.3K	1,333	1,333	+0	open	—	07-12 11:18
tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	1	$2.0K	2,313	0	+2,313	open	—	07-18 11:13
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	2	$1.3K	750	750	+0	Spurs	+$149	05-13 03:10
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	1	$1.3K	3,316	0	+3,316	open	—	04-17 08:11
will cristiano ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	1	$1.3K	1,566	0	+1,566	open	—	06-04 13:28
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	1	$1.2K	5,205	0	+5,205	open	—	04-02 05:21
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	2	$883	714	694	+21	open	—	04-14 09:09
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$800	969	0	+969	open	—	06-05 18:01
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	1	$750	1,831	0	+1,831	open	—	04-14 11:47
Gauff vs. Andreeva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	2	$723	424	424	+0	Over	+$123	05-12 18:54
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	1	$700	3,333	0	+3,333	open	—	04-17 08:10
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 3pt5	1	$610	1,070	0	+1,070	open	—	07-07 17:46
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	1	$600	1,111	0	+1,111	open	—	04-17 08:08
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner?	3	$524	1,068	1,068	+0	No	$-236	04-13 08:21
atp sweeny blanc 2026 06 24	2	$509	369	369	+0	open	—	06-24 15:17
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi	1	$500	746	0	+746	Luciano Darderi	$-500	05-13 13:15
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi	2	$490	290	290	+0	open	—	05-15 17:58
fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	2	$403	312	312	+0	open	—	06-27 03:54
will france reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134499	1	$400	625	0	+625	open	—	06-24 14:41
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score	1	$400	667	0	+667	open	—	05-14 14:03
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	2	$359	1,635	1,635	+0	No	$-241	04-28 13:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	3	$330	466	207	+259	open	—	05-23 10:33
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva	2	$306	588	588	+0	Coco Gauff	$-294	05-12 18:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	4	$304	499	175	+324	open	—	05-15 12:17
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5	1	$300	429	0	+429	Over	+$129	05-13 13:23
will harry kane score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611170337382	1	$300	484	0	+484	open	—	07-05 07:00
Serna vs. Villanueva: Match O/U 21.5	1	$300	556	0	+556	open	—	05-13 13:19
btc updown 5m 1775107200	1	$300	313	0	+313	open	—	04-02 05:24
btc updown 5m 1781011500	4	$300	312	312	+0	open	—	06-09 13:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 11:13:22	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	2,313	85¢	$1,958	0x5f7899…
07-12 11:18:43	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	SELL	1,333	100¢	$1,332	0x1da3eb…
07-09 09:32:11	wta vandrom selekhm 2026 07 09	Oksana Selekhmeteva	BUY	158	28¢	$44	0xf9a3f5…
07-07 17:46:11	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	1,070	57¢	$610	0x53c7a7…
07-05 07:00:07	will harry kane score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611170337382	Yes	BUY	484	62¢	$300	0x13404f…
07-05 06:53:17	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	3,158	3¢	$100	0x4bbc28…
07-03 08:54:58	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 shots mohamed salah gte2	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xc08de5…
07-02 17:28:55	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 shots marko arnautovic gte2	Yes	BUY	122	45¢	$55	0xd29dea…
06-30 18:09:32	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 corners second half total 3pt5	Over	BUY	138	72¢	$100	0xed9256…
06-30 18:07:50	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,072	0¢	$2	0x8292a6…
06-29 18:06:07	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 corners second half total 3pt5	Over	BUY	196	69¢	$135	0x784c17…
06-28 17:57:23	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 corners total 7pt5	Over	BUY	169	71¢	$120	0x64ee22…
06-28 17:56:22	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	Canada	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x1a51e7…
06-27 03:54:43	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x5c3699…
06-27 03:54:19	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	312	65¢	$203	0x5c27bf…
06-27 03:27:29	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 corners total 10pt5	Under	BUY	256	55¢	$140	0xc0aec2…
06-27 03:26:32	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	312	64¢	$200	0x604cd2…
06-24 15:17:08	atp sweeny blanc 2026 06 24	Dane Sweeny	SELL	369	93¢	$344	0x422f48…
06-24 14:45:07	atp sweeny blanc 2026 06 24	Dane Sweeny	BUY	369	45¢	$165	0x9b670d…
06-24 14:43:08	btc updown 5m 1782312000	Down	SELL	119	54¢	$64	0x8a357a…
06-24 14:42:50	btc updown 5m 1782312000	Down	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0xb35a06…
06-24 14:41:13	will france reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134499	Yes	BUY	625	64¢	$400	0x7355b9…
06-19 17:54:58	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,173	9¢	$100	0xef2afe…
06-15 03:54:18	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 5pt5	Under	SELL	96	90¢	$86	0xee39c8…
06-15 03:49:09	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	96	73¢	$70	0xa0d13d…
06-15 03:47:06	btc updown 5m 1781495100	Up	SELL	103	72¢	$74	0xd99168…
06-15 03:45:51	btc updown 5m 1781495100	Up	BUY	103	34¢	$35	0x44de85…
06-14 08:08:19	will romelu lukaku score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	303	25¢	$76	0xcad77f…
06-14 07:49:57	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	1,333	75¢	$1,000	0xbf65a5…
06-09 13:31:49	fif hun kaz 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	270	44¢	$118	0x5ed3ec…
06-09 13:29:37	btc updown 5m 1781011500	Down	SELL	95	38¢	$36	0x8b1496…
06-09 13:28:36	btc updown 5m 1781011500	Down	BUY	95	42¢	$40	0xc12e18…
06-09 13:27:12	btc updown 5m 1781011500	Up	SELL	217	57¢	$124	0xc61961…
06-09 13:25:49	btc updown 5m 1781011500	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xdfda95…
06-08 03:12:30	atp borges atmane 2026 06 08 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	282	71¢	$200	0x3d2aca…
06-08 03:06:55	btc updown 5m 1780887900	Up	BUY	73	62¢	$45	0x22f314…
06-07 16:07:27	btc updown 5m 1780848300	Down	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x4b07cb…
06-05 18:01:40	Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	969	83¢	$800	0x2f88e5…
06-04 13:28:01	will cristiano ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	1,566	83¢	$1,300	0xab09d7…
06-03 13:40:07	Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x16fe50…
06-01 03:19:24	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	309	32¢	$100	0x320599…
06-01 03:18:24	Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5	Over	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x1a67c0…
05-31 03:48:59	Svitolina vs. Bencic: Match O/U 21.5	Over	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x7d4637…
05-31 03:47:03	Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x056b18…
05-31 03:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	41	57¢	$23	0xdf2c6e…
05-31 03:41:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xa049c4…
05-30 03:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	151	1¢	$2	0xd07f56…
05-30 03:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	169	53¢	$90	0x2ff569…
05-30 03:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	151	33¢	$49	0x3c6705…
05-30 03:49:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	93	75¢	$70	0x80db06…
05-30 03:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	157	33¢	$52	0xedf2d7…
05-30 03:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	157	64¢	$100	0x567a6d…
05-30 03:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	292	3¢	$9	0x653b9b…
05-30 03:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	292	17¢	$50	0x5f453d…
05-28 18:56:06	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5	Over	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x1bc0b6…
05-28 18:52:10	Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	No	SELL	1,488	4¢	$54	0xeb176f…
05-27 15:40:00	Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys	Ugo Humbert	BUY	138	53¢	$73	0xa7ad03…
05-26 13:42:57	Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff	Alexander Bublik	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0xc8bfe6…
05-25 16:44:11	Gaston vs. Monfils: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	276	56¢	$155	0x6904c6…
05-25 11:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	208	52¢	$108	0xba8501…
05-25 11:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xbf990e…
05-25 03:28:01	Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x7e8d51…
05-23 10:48:41	Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Petr Bar Biryukov	Ilya Ivashka	BUY	279	68¢	$190	0x59ce3c…
05-23 10:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	401	23¢	$93	0x563a59…
05-23 10:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	256	31¢	$79	0x4b7d08…
05-23 10:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0xd0bdf1…
05-23 10:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	259	39¢	$100	0x810930…
05-23 10:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	SELL	207	63¢	$130	0x5c0357…
05-23 10:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	207	48¢	$100	0x54ea45…
05-22 17:39:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	200	75¢	$151	0x7cf77e…
05-22 17:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xc65f89…
05-22 17:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x902f84…
05-21 15:33:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	160	84¢	$134	0x7cbbb9…
05-21 15:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	160	63¢	$100	0x1aee7f…
05-21 15:30:30	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro	Emma Navarro	SELL	233	51¢	$119	0x9447b0…
05-21 15:28:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	84	62¢	$52	0x3a53dd…
05-21 15:26:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	84	48¢	$40	0x5d3b2a…
05-21 15:03:36	Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana	Ashlyn Krueger	BUY	225	58¢	$130	0x9b7ae4…
05-21 15:03:08	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro	Emma Navarro	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0x0180b0…
05-18 17:48:28	Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	BUY	323	90¢	$290	0xef5d7e…
05-18 17:47:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	114	57¢	$65	0x04271d…
05-18 17:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0x70d5e5…
05-18 17:40:46	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova	Katerina Siniakova	SELL	286	7¢	$20	0xa5e51f…
05-18 17:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	217	91¢	$198	0x67dfa1…
05-18 17:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xe7a069…
05-18 17:14:29	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova	Katerina Siniakova	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0xd0c4fa…
05-15 19:45:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	98	40¢	$39	0xfd2c66…
05-15 19:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x3bb40e…
05-15 19:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	91	89¢	$81	0x0791c8…
05-15 19:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	91	33¢	$30	0xe3cf85…
05-15 19:32:41	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	113	33¢	$37	0xc88a9d…
05-15 18:24:17	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	113	53¢	$60	0x33eb95…
05-15 18:22:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x4889d6…
05-15 18:20:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x8d1f6b…
05-15 18:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	95	53¢	$50	0x05dc32…
05-15 18:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x89bb27…
05-15 18:02:32	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0xa80938…
05-15 17:58:51	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi	Casper Ruud	SELL	290	100¢	$290	0x5146b4…
05-15 12:29:42	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi	Casper Ruud	BUY	290	69¢	$200	0xf5f100…
05-15 12:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x45b2c7…