Favorite-Permafrost — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.53K

Unrealized P&L

-$392

Hit rate

64.5%

Resolved

223

Trades

358

lifetime

Volume

$53.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$150

Open exposure

$433

1 position

First seen

2026-02-17

last 08-08 14:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Sports

41% 54% -$356

Other

28% 56% +$1,180

Politics

16% 43% +$1,825

Crypto

15% 56% -$1,121

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes		+2,012	$825	22¢	$433	-$392	08-08 14:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	2	$6.1K	4,820	4,194	+627	Yes	+$2,771	04-14 09:20
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$5.0K	4,173	3,464	+709	Yes	-$281	07-18 11:12
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	2	$2.3K	1,333	1,333	+0	Yes	+$332	07-12 11:18
tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	1	$2.0K	2,313	0	+2,313	Yes	+$356	07-18 11:13
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	2	$1.8K	1,023	1,023	+0	open	—	08-08 14:35
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	2	$1.5K	962	962	+0	No	+$461	05-31 03:39
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	2	$1.3K	750	750	+0	Spurs	+$149	05-13 03:10
will cristiano ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	1	$1.3K	1,566	0	+1,566	Yes	+$266	06-04 13:28
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	1	$1.3K	3,316	0	+3,316	No	-$1,300	04-17 08:11
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	1	$1.2K	5,205	0	+5,205	No	-$1,200	04-02 05:21
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	1	$1000	1,471	0	+1,471	Yes	+$471	07-08 04:27
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$1000	1,288	0	+1,288	Yes	+$288	06-08 03:09
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$1000	1,150	0	+1,150	No	+$150	06-24 14:36
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	2	$995	3,333	3,333	+0	No	-$405	05-15 03:01
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$990	1,831	1,831	+0	No	-$510	05-11 14:20
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	2	$883	714	694	+21	Yes	+$503	04-14 09:09
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	1	$825	2,012	0	+2,012	open	—	08-08 14:37
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$800	969	0	+969	No	+$169	06-05 18:01
Gauff vs. Andreeva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	2	$723	424	424	+0	Over	+$123	05-12 18:54
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 3pt5	1	$610	1,070	0	+1,070	Over	+$460	07-07 17:46
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	1	$600	1,111	0	+1,111	No	+$511	04-17 08:08
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner?	3	$524	1,068	1,068	+0	No	-$236	04-13 08:21
atp sweeny blanc 2026 06 24	2	$509	369	369	+0	Dane Sweeny	+$179	06-24 15:17
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	1	$500	1,266	0	+1,266	Yes	+$766	05-30 03:38
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi	1	$500	746	0	+746	Luciano Darderi	-$500	05-13 13:15
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi	2	$490	290	290	+0	Casper Ruud	+$90	05-15 17:58
fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	2	$403	312	312	+0	Over	+$3	06-27 03:54
will france reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134499	1	$400	625	0	+625	Yes	+$225	06-24 14:41
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score	1	$400	667	0	+667	Yes	+$267	05-14 14:03
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	2	$359	1,635	1,635	+0	No	-$241	04-28 13:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 14:37:07	Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	2,012	41¢	$825	0xc4da0d…
08-08 14:35:48	Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	SELL	1,023	84¢	$859	0x09e65d…
07-18 11:13:22	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	2,313	85¢	$1,958	0x5f7899…
07-18 11:12:31	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3,464	58¢	$2,009	0xd4a860…
07-12 11:18:43	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	SELL	1,333	100¢	$1,332	0x1da3eb…
07-09 09:32:11	wta vandrom selekhm 2026 07 09	Oksana Selekhmeteva	BUY	158	28¢	$44	0xf9a3f5…
07-08 04:27:28	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	BUY	1,471	68¢	$1,000	0xdb4963…
07-07 17:46:11	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	1,070	57¢	$610	0x53c7a7…
07-05 07:04:41	Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	302	72¢	$217	0xfcad04…
07-05 07:00:07	will harry kane score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611170337382	Yes	BUY	484	62¢	$300	0x13404f…
07-05 06:53:17	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	3,158	3¢	$100	0x4bbc28…
07-03 08:57:41	Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	228	85¢	$193	0xa88382…
07-03 08:54:58	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 shots mohamed salah gte2	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xc08de5…
07-02 17:28:55	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 shots marko arnautovic gte2	Yes	BUY	122	45¢	$55	0xd29dea…
07-02 17:26:50	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	293	82¢	$240	0x3d7017…
06-30 18:09:32	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 corners second half total 3pt5	Over	BUY	138	72¢	$100	0xed9256…
06-30 18:07:50	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,072	0¢	$2	0x8292a6…
06-29 18:06:07	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 corners second half total 3pt5	Over	BUY	196	69¢	$135	0x784c17…
06-28 17:57:23	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 corners total 7pt5	Over	BUY	169	71¢	$120	0x64ee22…
06-28 17:56:22	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	Canada	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x1a51e7…
06-27 03:54:43	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x5c3699…
06-27 03:54:19	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	312	65¢	$203	0x5c27bf…
06-27 03:27:29	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 corners total 10pt5	Under	BUY	256	55¢	$140	0xc0aec2…
06-27 03:26:32	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	312	64¢	$200	0x604cd2…
06-24 15:17:08	atp sweeny blanc 2026 06 24	Dane Sweeny	SELL	369	93¢	$344	0x422f48…
06-24 14:45:07	atp sweeny blanc 2026 06 24	Dane Sweeny	BUY	369	45¢	$165	0x9b670d…
06-24 14:43:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 14:40 UTC	Down	SELL	119	54¢	$64	0x8a357a…
06-24 14:42:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0xb35a06…
06-24 14:41:13	will france reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134499	Yes	BUY	625	64¢	$400	0x7355b9…
06-24 14:36:23	Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,150	87¢	$1,000	0x72eb06…
06-19 17:54:58	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,173	9¢	$100	0xef2afe…
06-15 15:58:33	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	BUY	195	45¢	$88	0xc1e8a4…
06-15 03:54:18	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 5pt5	Under	SELL	96	90¢	$86	0xee39c8…
06-15 03:49:09	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	96	73¢	$70	0xa0d13d…
06-15 03:47:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 03:45 UTC	Up	SELL	103	72¢	$74	0xd99168…
06-15 03:45:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	103	34¢	$35	0x44de85…
06-15 03:43:54	Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia?	No	SELL	97	40¢	$38	0xcc2155…
06-15 03:30:28	Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia?	No	BUY	97	57¢	$55	0x417d26…
06-15 03:29:37	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	SELL	101	56¢	$57	0xa08a01…
06-15 03:08:16	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	101	78¢	$79	0xc43a47…
06-14 08:08:19	will romelu lukaku score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	303	25¢	$76	0xcad77f…
06-14 07:57:18	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	170	59¢	$100	0x2c73c7…
06-14 07:52:09	Will Federico Valverde record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	504	10¢	$50	0x988c0d…
06-14 07:49:57	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	1,333	75¢	$1,000	0xbf65a5…
06-09 13:31:49	fif hun kaz 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	270	44¢	$118	0x5ed3ec…
06-09 13:29:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 13:25 UTC	Down	SELL	95	38¢	$36	0x8b1496…
06-09 13:28:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	95	42¢	$40	0xc12e18…
06-09 13:27:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 13:25 UTC	Up	SELL	217	57¢	$124	0xc61961…
06-09 13:25:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 13:25 UTC	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xdfda95…
06-09 13:23:28	Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	No	SELL	1,619	0¢	$3	0xd0977a…
06-08 03:12:30	atp borges atmane 2026 06 08 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	282	71¢	$200	0x3d2aca…
06-08 03:09:58	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	1,288	78¢	$1,000	0x3c3da9…
06-08 03:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	73	85¢	$62	0x36acd2…
06-08 03:06:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	73	62¢	$45	0x22f314…
06-07 16:07:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 16:05 UTC	Down	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x4b07cb…
06-05 18:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	107	84¢	$90	0xf381a7…
06-05 18:01:40	Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	969	83¢	$800	0x2f88e5…
06-05 17:58:42	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,784	72¢	$2,000	0xe352a8…
06-04 13:29:45	Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	Yes	BUY	85	53¢	$45	0x9cf3cb…
06-04 13:28:01	will cristiano ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	1,566	83¢	$1,300	0xab09d7…
06-03 13:40:07	Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x16fe50…
06-03 13:35:10	Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	Yes	SELL	551	8¢	$44	0xd1d2b7…
06-01 03:19:24	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	309	32¢	$100	0x320599…
06-01 03:18:24	Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5	Over	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x1a67c0…
05-31 03:48:59	Svitolina vs. Bencic: Match O/U 21.5	Over	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x7d4637…
05-31 03:47:03	Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x056b18…
05-31 03:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	41	57¢	$23	0xdf2c6e…
05-31 03:41:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xa049c4…
05-31 03:41:12	Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	BUY	1,023	88¢	$900	0x3aae50…
05-31 03:39:30	Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	No	SELL	962	100¢	$961	0x0d25a7…
05-30 03:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	151	1¢	$2	0xd07f56…
05-30 03:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	169	53¢	$90	0x2ff569…
05-30 03:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	151	33¢	$49	0x3c6705…
05-30 03:49:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	93	75¢	$70	0x80db06…
05-30 03:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	157	33¢	$52	0xedf2d7…
05-30 03:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	157	64¢	$100	0x567a6d…
05-30 03:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	292	3¢	$9	0x653b9b…
05-30 03:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	292	17¢	$50	0x5f453d…
05-30 03:40:22	Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	Yes	BUY	571	28¢	$160	0x8d621d…
05-30 03:40:04	Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	Yes	BUY	551	27¢	$150	0x8f0c20…
05-30 03:38:14	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	1,266	39¢	$500	0xc2ddb9…
05-28 18:56:06	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5	Over	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x1bc0b6…
05-28 18:52:10	Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	No	SELL	1,488	4¢	$54	0xeb176f…
05-27 15:40:00	Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys	Ugo Humbert	BUY	138	53¢	$73	0xa7ad03…
05-26 13:42:57	Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff	Alexander Bublik	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0xc8bfe6…
05-25 16:44:11	Gaston vs. Monfils: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	276	56¢	$155	0x6904c6…
05-25 11:11:06	Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	1,044	28¢	$292	0x4901d8…
05-25 11:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	208	52¢	$108	0xba8501…
05-25 11:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xbf990e…
05-25 11:04:49	Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	1,488	7¢	$100	0xcbe775…
05-25 03:28:01	Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x7e8d51…
05-25 03:24:22	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,389	72¢	$1,000	0x7b389e…
05-23 10:48:41	Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Petr Bar Biryukov	Ilya Ivashka	BUY	279	68¢	$190	0x59ce3c…
05-23 10:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	401	23¢	$93	0x563a59…
05-23 10:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	256	31¢	$79	0x4b7d08…
05-23 10:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0xd0bdf1…
05-23 10:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	259	39¢	$100	0x810930…
05-23 10:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	SELL	207	63¢	$130	0x5c0357…
05-23 10:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	207	48¢	$100	0x54ea45…
05-22 17:39:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	200	75¢	$151	0x7cf77e…