Courteous-Pagoda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$188

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

51.3%

Resolved

1,168

Trades

4,297

lifetime

Volume

$16.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 10-29 17:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 140 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 47% -$58

Other

24% 69% -$13

Sports

10% 34% -$98

Politics

2% 48% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	+4	$2	80¢	$3	+$1	10-06 13:27
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	+4	$2	38¢	$2	-$1	10-06 12:33
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	No	+5	$2	26¢	$1	-$1	08-03 13:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down february 3 8am et	56	$322	343	330	+13	Down	-$17	02-03 13:57
ethereum up or down february 3 6am et	49	$261	229	230	-2	Down	+$5	02-03 11:57
bitcoin up or down february 3 6am et	35	$215	204	211	-7	Down	+$43	02-03 12:00
xrp up or down february 3 8am et	53	$213	222	224	-2	Up	$0	02-03 14:00
solana up or down february 3 3am et	48	$211	211	211	+0	Down	+$27	02-03 09:00
solana up or down february 3 4pm et	52	$173	197	158	+39	Down	-$8	02-03 21:48
bitcoin up or down february 3 5am et	32	$169	151	129	+22	Down	-$11	02-03 10:41
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	44	$155	194	194	+0	Yes	+$3	02-09 02:51
solana up or down february 3 7am et	33	$142	149	144	+5	Up	-$1	02-03 13:00
solana up or down february 3 8am et	29	$133	161	141	+20	Up	-$2	02-03 13:55
bitcoin up or down february 3 1am et	23	$130	130	130	+0	Up	-$2	02-03 06:23
xrp up or down february 3 6am et	39	$122	179	167	+12	Up	$0	02-03 11:38
bitcoin up or down february 3 12am et	17	$121	92	92	+0	Down	+$2	02-03 05:34
ethereum up or down february 3 1am et	23	$121	113	107	+5	Up	-$2	02-03 06:50
ethereum up or down february 3 5am et	18	$117	96	96	+0	Down	+$0	02-03 10:42
nba okc den 2026 02 01	23	$116	136	136	+0	Thunder	-$7	02-02 04:11
ethereum up or down february 3 3am et	23	$113	109	109	+0	Down	+$1	02-03 08:43
solana up or down february 3 6pm et	33	$113	154	129	+26	Down	-$9	02-03 23:53
solana up or down february 3 1am et	22	$112	103	97	+5	Up	-$4	02-03 06:45
solana up or down february 3 5am et	22	$107	88	88	+0	Down	-$2	02-03 10:43
ethereum up or down february 2 11pm et	19	$106	93	99	-6	Up	+$5	02-03 04:57
xrp up or down february 3 7pm et	31	$104	113	131	-18	Down	+$14	02-04 00:55
nba orl sas 2026 02 01	17	$103	122	122	-0	Spurs	-$4	02-02 04:09
bitcoin up or down february 2 11pm et	19	$102	82	82	+0	Up	+$6	02-03 04:42
solana up or down february 3 10am et	28	$97	140	130	+10	Up	-$5	02-03 15:48
bitcoin up or down february 3 4am et	14	$97	71	71	+0	Down	-$1	02-03 09:18
xrp up or down february 3 4pm et	22	$91	119	87	+31	Down	-$5	02-03 21:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 12:20 UTC	24	$89	168	0	+168	Down	-$1	07-06 12:21
xrp up or down february 3 7am et	26	$86	147	112	+35	Up	-$6	02-03 12:40
xrp up or down february 3 3am et	15	$82	80	80	+0	Down	+$15	02-03 09:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:38:10	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x219c10…
10-28 01:26:29	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x688737…
10-28 01:01:09	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xad3d8a…
10-27 22:47:15	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	9	87¢	$8	0x1159f2…
10-27 20:03:06	Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	4	87¢	$3	0x2bd9b4…
10-27 20:02:20	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0x70960f…
10-27 01:28:14	Will Neil Morton win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0x7017e0…
10-27 01:26:11	Will Erwin Wiens win the 2026 Niagara-on-the-Lake mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x5f0730…
10-27 01:03:53	Will Martin Ritsma win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x8f310a…
10-25 22:23:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x30695d…
10-25 10:20:39	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x3a9618…
10-24 03:32:42	Will John Kelly win the next Hobart mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x9326a4…
10-23 19:29:51	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0xb31806…
10-23 14:45:20	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x5ddf43…
10-23 02:42:57	Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0xb5b22b…
10-21 07:22:56	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 700,000 and 750,000?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xd216bd…
10-21 07:14:35	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	No	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0x3db8db…
10-18 11:04:12	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 45% or more?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x03e8e7…
10-18 11:00:44	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x6c37c6…
10-18 05:11:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 21% or more?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6719b6…
10-18 05:03:21	Will Gary Sulz win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x3b75d4…
10-18 03:53:18	Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	87¢	$3	0x230bc7…
10-18 03:50:39	Will Kathy Hochul underperform Kamala in New York?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x074d44…
10-18 03:43:06	Will Mark Sager win the 2026 West Vancouver mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x78719f…
10-17 17:17:02	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x264de8…
10-17 17:13:29	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xc9d857…
10-17 16:30:59	Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?	No	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0xd19b8f…
10-17 04:22:27	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xf5b453…
10-17 04:14:29	Will the Republican Party control the Arizona Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0xed7e21…
10-16 20:43:17	Will Igor Kršiak win the 2026 Nitra mayoral election?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0xa7a293…
10-16 00:01:09	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xefb3fb…
10-16 00:01:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xbd67a4…
10-15 23:50:15	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xd10f32…
10-15 23:50:15	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x55ea03…
10-15 23:50:09	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0xe7fc09…
10-15 23:49:37	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0x62c50d…
10-15 23:49:31	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x128221…
10-15 23:49:19	Will Tomáš Portlík be the next Mayor of Prague?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xf77d08…
10-15 23:49:10	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xc861ba…
10-11 03:01:38	Georgia vs. Alabama	Alabama	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x0328b1…
10-08 07:25:43	Will the Republican Party control the Arizona Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xfc34c3…
10-08 07:25:43	Will Kari Gares win the 2026 Vernon mayoral election?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xe10431…
10-08 07:24:37	Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x6d43ec…
10-07 12:58:35	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x44aae0…
10-07 12:47:38	Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x6fdf06…
10-07 12:47:37	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xeae2e4…
10-07 12:47:37	Will John Kelly win the next Hobart mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x4f7ae1…
10-07 12:36:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x83770d…
10-07 12:36:38	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x5a1b4c…
10-07 12:36:38	Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x2296fc…
10-07 00:01:43	Will Tito-Dante Marimpietri win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x93ea73…
10-07 00:01:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x6c3130…
10-06 13:27:58	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xff9bdd…
10-06 13:27:58	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x20dca2…
10-06 13:27:57	Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0xb9f49d…
10-06 13:17:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x8ff8ea…
10-06 13:17:09	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xd42a8b…
10-06 13:17:09	Will Democrats sweep the Georgia Senate and Governor elections?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xc8de19…
10-06 13:06:21	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xf0a41e…
10-06 13:06:19	Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x986dd2…
10-06 13:06:19	Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Mississippi be between 800,000 and 900,000?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x878abb…
10-06 12:55:16	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 21% or more?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xc81720…
10-06 12:55:16	Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x34277d…
10-06 12:55:16	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x2fa050…
10-06 12:44:28	Will Eva Nemčovská win the 2026 Trnava mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xbc2b5f…
10-06 12:44:28	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor election?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xa7ef46…
10-06 12:44:28	Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x728fae…
10-06 12:33:43	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x1ce8c3…
10-06 12:33:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Secretary of State election?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xb01760…
10-06 12:33:42	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x8aaf1d…
10-06 00:00:22	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Attorney General election?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x0f6b41…
10-06 00:00:20	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x75ac9c…
10-05 23:18:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe9218d…
10-05 21:32:52	Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x2304ba…
10-05 13:17:11	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x054ad6…
10-05 13:17:10	Will NDP win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x398ae1…
10-05 13:17:10	Will Keanin Loomis win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x0c3a08…
10-05 13:06:25	Will Gary Sulz win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x6eff38…
10-05 13:06:23	Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xe3873b…
10-05 13:06:23	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xa3f6e4…
10-05 12:55:38	Will Igor Kršiak win the 2026 Nitra mayoral election?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x973a8f…
10-05 12:55:37	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xc737bd…
10-05 12:55:37	Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x74a41e…
10-05 12:44:43	Will Neil Morton win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xda542b…
10-05 12:44:41	Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xb25701…
10-05 12:44:41	Will Ján Forgáč win the 2026 Trenčín mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x94fa3b…
10-05 12:33:59	Will Mark Sager win the 2026 West Vancouver mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x7e5439…
10-05 12:33:58	Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x49e074…
10-05 12:33:58	Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x00e296…
10-05 12:23:16	Will the Democratic Party win the MI-04 House seat?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xfda69a…
10-05 12:23:16	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x389720…
10-05 12:23:14	Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xdb4f0e…
10-04 23:50:50	Will Tom Dyas win the 2026 Kelowna mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0xa83481…
10-04 23:50:50	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x69c6fa…
10-04 23:50:38	Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xa5414f…
10-04 05:48:26	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x427568…
10-04 05:48:16	Will SV come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$3	0xf7e9b9…
10-02 03:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x6b5cfa…
10-01 07:30:17	Will Atsumi Harasawa win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x0cc56c…
10-01 07:30:15	Will Stephanie Cameron win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x9211ca…