Knowing-Democracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17.7K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.6%

Resolved

Trades

7,013

lifetime

Volume

$15.9M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.27K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 10:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Other

80% 79% -$49,184

Politics

14% 100% +$31,828

Crypto

6% 75% -$317

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-21).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1,038	$2.20M	1,396,340	939,357	+456,983	Yes	-$23,559	03-06 20:45
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	102	$1.93M	972,891	972,897	-6	No	+$1,158	01-09 14:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	394	$1.36M	840,783	840,716	+68	Yes	-$94,307	07-21 10:28
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	69	$1.35M	875,382	480,890	+394,491	No	+$2,502	01-03 23:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	789	$1.22M	653,815	621,987	+31,828	No	+$14,691	06-18 22:37
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	214	$941.4K	474,308	474,710	-402	No	+$1,462	02-14 15:28
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	212	$850.3K	410,307	453,068	-42,761	No	+$8,651	03-04 17:30
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	342	$742.7K	304,832	454,872	-150,040	No	+$2,569	05-16 08:38
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	469	$619.4K	316,686	319,600	-2,914	Yes	+$2,614	03-04 17:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	558	$618.4K	470,709	167,783	+302,926	No	+$11,293	04-21 20:16
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	135	$483.6K	500,174	0	+500,174	Yes	+$16,595	01-19 04:41
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	30	$480.2K	481,682	0	+481,682	Yes	+$1,445	01-03 13:47
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	111	$280.3K	141,698	141,698	+0	No	+$319	02-07 07:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	239	$279.7K	279,081	9,018	+270,063	No	+$8,339	03-31 02:45
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	109	$247.3K	228,145	20,000	+208,145	No	+$677	01-31 09:28
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	19	$199.4K	100,000	100,000	+0	No	+$0	02-09 07:35
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	308	$195.9K	98,628	99,065	-437	Yes	+$527	02-06 19:47
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	5	$159.6K	309	159,403	-159,094	No	-$159	01-03 12:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	92	$148.8K	80,010	80,010	+0	No	-$2,611	05-03 20:52
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	37	$127.7K	64,448	65,114	-667	No	+$150	01-30 01:04
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	18	$86.1K	43,303	43,303	+0	No	+$17	02-07 00:01
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	48	$84.7K	35,200	50,582	-15,382	Yes	+$15,197	04-04 22:06
will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	27	$83.2K	41,910	41,910	+0	No	+$17	02-07 07:12
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	83	$71.7K	43,749	29,368	+14,382	Yes	+$86	06-10 19:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	196	$70.5K	36,180	36,180	+0	No	+$1,737	05-28 13:49
us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525	6	$60.6K	40,849	20,000	+20,849	No	+$83	02-12 17:23
will ethereum reach 4000 in february 2026	32	$59.9K	30,115	30,115	+0	No	+$0	02-11 03:15
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	75	$59.8K	31,893	31,893	+0	No	+$3,707	04-12 20:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	12	$59.7K	31,671	31,671	+0	No	-$300	05-16 08:18
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	40	$54.9K	28,239	28,239	+0	No	+$706	06-19 13:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 10:28:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	68	93¢	$63	0x065c6d…
07-19 20:25:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	129,138	92¢	$118,385	0x263aa2…
07-19 20:25:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	62,358	93¢	$57,766	0x814399…
07-19 19:51:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,169	94¢	$9,549	0x022b2c…
07-19 19:13:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0xa7ea19…
07-19 19:05:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	54	94¢	$51	0xeda801…
07-19 19:05:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	46	94¢	$43	0x5b7d31…
07-19 19:02:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x4756a3…
07-19 18:58:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xef9795…
07-19 18:49:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	47	94¢	$44	0xdfc7cd…
07-19 18:47:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0xed7614…
07-19 18:39:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	19	94¢	$18	0x78cb64…
07-19 18:37:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x973fbb…
07-19 18:32:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,006	94¢	$4,706	0x80399a…
07-19 18:31:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x93bbf0…
07-19 18:28:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	73	94¢	$69	0x795572…
07-19 18:28:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	16,400	94¢	$15,423	0x606d4c…
07-19 18:28:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x2a9ff7…
07-15 19:49:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,749	95¢	$5,473	0x300e68…
07-15 19:44:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	125	95¢	$119	0x79c03e…
07-15 19:34:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x2b620d…
07-15 19:12:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xf66107…
07-15 19:06:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd81793…
07-15 19:04:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0xda13b9…
07-15 19:01:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x34b1f8…
07-15 18:58:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x43fb48…
07-15 18:49:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x005238…
07-15 18:37:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,200	95¢	$2,094	0x7b0916…
07-15 18:32:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x210b41…
07-15 18:29:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x6cabae…
07-15 18:29:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xd14358…
07-15 18:26:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	133	95¢	$127	0xcb962a…
07-14 20:34:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15,039	92¢	$13,836	0xb1a415…
07-14 20:33:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	92¢	$14	0x8dd65b…
07-14 20:23:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	37	92¢	$34	0x8be8b9…
07-14 20:11:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	37,500	92¢	$34,500	0x2804ef…
07-14 20:10:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x509877…
07-14 20:01:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	92¢	$13	0x6db4bf…
07-14 20:00:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x7fca8c…
07-14 20:00:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0x3db745…
07-14 19:58:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0xacc0d6…
07-14 19:58:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,100	92¢	$1,932	0xaf1c98…
07-14 19:55:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x331ad3…
07-14 19:52:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0xfcac36…
07-14 19:50:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,608	92¢	$2,400	0xa12d8a…
07-14 19:46:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xaea2c2…
07-14 19:46:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0xd092a9…
07-14 19:46:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x4e6e3b…
07-14 19:45:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0x569980…
07-14 19:44:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xbee201…
07-14 19:42:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x91cdc4…
07-14 19:34:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	781	91¢	$711	0xc88adf…
07-14 19:29:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	425	91¢	$387	0x62ad41…
07-14 19:28:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0x202e9d…
07-14 19:24:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0x6d5390…
07-14 19:18:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x813f2b…
07-14 19:14:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	121	91¢	$110	0x5c8c1b…
07-14 19:07:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x2eda24…
07-14 19:06:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xc3b5c9…
07-14 19:03:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x917fd9…
07-14 19:00:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x647b11…
07-14 18:59:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	91¢	$303	0x39e25b…
07-14 18:51:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xb3b850…
07-14 18:48:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,597	91¢	$1,454	0x6e941a…
07-14 18:44:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x3b44c8…
07-14 18:37:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x89b0da…
07-14 18:34:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xecb412…
07-14 18:34:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	91¢	$40	0xb9d5f1…
07-14 18:31:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	39	91¢	$35	0xcbc9e4…
07-14 18:27:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xc5c187…
07-14 18:25:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xa5ef5d…
07-14 18:11:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	118	91¢	$107	0x53adde…
07-14 18:01:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x26a0e0…
07-14 17:54:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xa5af45…
07-14 17:54:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7,694	91¢	$7,002	0xac976f…
07-14 13:56:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,266	93¢	$7,688	0xef267a…
07-14 13:55:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0xa5ca13…
07-14 13:52:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0xe125f6…
07-14 13:51:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,633	93¢	$2,449	0x6c16e3…
07-14 13:51:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6df36f…
07-14 13:50:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	216	93¢	$201	0x287562…
07-14 13:49:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0xd53bed…
07-14 13:49:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0xcd5811…
07-14 13:49:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x632aad…
07-14 13:49:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0x5988dc…
07-14 13:49:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x70aa4f…
07-14 13:48:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x3338a3…
07-14 13:47:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xbaac20…
07-14 13:47:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0xb453e9…
07-14 13:47:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	150	93¢	$139	0x0f071b…
07-14 13:45:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0xfd1446…
07-14 13:44:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x42e8c3…
07-14 13:41:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x6aedeb…
07-14 13:41:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	78	93¢	$73	0x84cf7c…
07-14 13:41:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$12	0xe20e45…
07-14 13:40:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x5754cd…
07-14 13:39:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xace5da…
07-14 13:38:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	36,931	93¢	$34,346	0x86799a…
07-14 12:37:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	194	89¢	$173	0xb2c841…
07-14 12:37:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0xcfdaad…