Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$32

Unrealized P&L

-$36

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$31.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$480

Open exposure

$397

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-10 16:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

97% 82% -$60

Tech

2% 100% +$93

Crypto

1% 0% -$2

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes		+547	$432	72¢	$397	-$36	10-10 16:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	5	$15.5K	7,800	7,800	+0	No	+$4	01-06 08:03
bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	32	$13.2K	6,615	6,593	+22	No	+$4	01-11 12:15
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$432	547	0	+547	open	—	10-10 16:34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	2	$397	200	200	+0	No	+$3	06-28 18:54
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	3	$383	200	200	+0	open	—	06-03 00:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	1	$340	400	0	+400	Yes	+$60	09-05 14:22
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$300	333	0	+333	Yes	+$33	08-07 08:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$295	333	0	+333	No	+$38	07-06 14:40
spx up or down on june 5 2026	1	$202	695	0	+695	Down	-$202	06-05 04:31
spx opens up or down on july 2 2026	8	$155	245	0	+245	Up	+$90	07-02 06:05
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$18	9	9	+0	Yes	+$0	03-31 20:38
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$9	0	9	-9	No	$0	05-18 16:38
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on May 28?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-28 11:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-29 07:51
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 28?	1	$3	5	0	+5	No	+$2	05-28 05:31
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 28?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-28 09:11
Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$2	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$2	02-04 08:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-10 16:34:19	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	533	79¢	$421	0x2a28bb…
10-10 11:42:45	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0x50e487…
09-05 14:22:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	85¢	$340	0xb86f31…
08-07 08:40:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	90¢	$300	0xf81c03…
07-06 14:40:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	301	89¢	$266	0x45fcb7…
07-06 14:29:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	32	88¢	$29	0xad07ed…
07-02 06:05:07	spx opens up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	27	62¢	$17	0xff7d2d…
07-02 06:04:32	spx opens up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xb97429…
07-02 06:03:44	spx opens up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x764932…
07-02 05:49:23	spx opens up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xd45a49…
07-02 05:48:34	spx opens up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xb36cea…
07-02 05:45:19	spx opens up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x26ad74…
07-02 05:30:46	spx opens up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0xbce6c7…
07-02 05:30:37	spx opens up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xef598d…
06-28 18:54:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xe7c231…
06-08 03:47:57	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x8e8340…
06-05 04:31:49	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	695	29¢	$202	0xf52c8e…
06-03 00:10:50	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xdcbcde…
05-29 07:51:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x57a8e4…
05-28 11:00:43	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on May 28?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x49c291…
05-28 09:11:27	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 28?	No	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x072e05…
05-28 05:31:43	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x6b2d2f…
05-20 06:55:32	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	91	96¢	$87	0xf40a7a…
05-20 06:55:06	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	109	96¢	$104	0xa8973f…
05-18 16:38:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x4a3f0c…
03-31 20:38:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x58badb…
03-30 09:26:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x696088…
02-04 08:51:24	Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x44c201…
01-11 12:15:00	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	1,712	100¢	$1,705	0xbb503e…
01-11 11:03:02	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	392	100¢	$391	0xd61b98…
01-11 10:52:12	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	611	100¢	$609	0xe5170f…
01-11 10:23:08	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x2059f4…
01-11 09:25:02	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xde3199…
01-11 09:11:44	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0xb8ef1e…
01-11 08:32:28	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9e01b2…
01-11 06:41:50	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0xf509d3…
01-11 06:34:38	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7ef9f4…
01-11 06:20:56	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7acfea…
01-11 06:04:38	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0xac2e90…
01-11 03:59:24	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xabffdc…
01-11 03:47:06	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xba3cef…
01-11 03:11:10	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	69	100¢	$69	0x313637…
01-10 22:24:32	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x0db968…
01-10 22:20:16	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	566	100¢	$564	0xa63cc4…
01-08 07:54:55	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	141	100¢	$141	0x664b74…
01-08 07:51:19	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc8c36b…
01-08 07:45:57	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x04eced…
01-08 07:23:15	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbef376…
01-08 07:20:27	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	2,065	100¢	$2,059	0x7dbd7f…
01-08 07:11:51	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x28970e…
01-08 06:55:15	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x073bd7…
01-08 06:55:07	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	16	100¢	$15	0x7e1fdc…
01-08 06:54:59	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	16	100¢	$15	0x1fce0e…
01-08 06:54:51	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0x7133ee…
01-08 06:54:43	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	248	100¢	$248	0x6760d2…
01-08 06:15:35	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	1,278	100¢	$1,275	0x346e53…
01-07 08:57:43	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	987	100¢	$983	0x22ecd5…
01-07 07:27:47	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	984	100¢	$980	0x7c86eb…
01-07 07:08:31	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,887	100¢	$1,879	0x794da4…
01-07 07:08:11	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x4c53d5…
01-06 08:03:47	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	3,384	99¢	$3,364	0xb498a4…
01-06 08:03:27	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	516	99¢	$513	0xa867c8…
01-03 08:14:25	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	3,900	99¢	$3,865	0xc1bfe3…
01-03 07:54:45	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	3,900	99¢	$3,865	0x3237d7…
01-02 15:03:39	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	3,900	99¢	$3,873	0x480f85…