Muted-Craftsman — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$121

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.8%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

117

306 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.28K

$30.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$101

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 10-28 18:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 49% +$1,508

Other

0% 0% -$48

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 16:15 UTC	3	$3.8K	2,195	2,175	+20	Down	+$541	03-18 16:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 17:10 UTC	2	$3.0K	1,618	1,612	+5	Up	+$202	03-18 17:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$2.9K	1,625	1,625	+0	Down	+$323	05-04 17:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 14:45 UTC	2	$1.9K	1,187	1,170	+17	Down	+$462	03-18 15:02
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 15:45 UTC	2	$1.6K	1,942	0	+1,942	Down	-$1,605	03-18 15:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	2	$1.3K	1,500	0	+1,500	Up	+$150	05-04 17:14
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 14:40 UTC	2	$1.2K	811	799	+12	Down	+$437	03-18 14:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	2	$1.2K	1,437	0	+1,437	Up	+$283	05-04 17:59
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 15:30 UTC	2	$1.2K	790	778	+12	Up	+$402	03-18 15:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 16:10 UTC	2	$877	592	582	+9	Up	+$286	03-18 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	26	$737	450	450	+0	Up	+$162	05-04 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10AM ET	3	$719	468	468	+0	Up	+$217	05-05 15:03
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 15:30 UTC	2	$602	412	406	+6	Up	+$208	03-18 15:45
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 14:20 UTC	3	$586	371	367	+4	Up	+$151	03-18 14:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 20:45 UTC	2	$551	367	361	+6	Up	+$170	03-18 21:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	2	$502	872	0	+872	Down	+$370	05-05 04:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	3	$480	989	0	+989	Down	-$480	05-04 17:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 21:20 UTC	1	$473	597	0	+597	Down	-$473	03-18 21:24
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	1	$400	596	0	+596	Up	+$196	07-15 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	1	$400	441	0	+441	Down	+$41	05-05 03:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 20:30 UTC	2	$366	194	194	+0	Up	+$21	03-18 20:43
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 21:05 UTC	1	$358	477	0	+477	Up	+$119	03-18 21:07
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 13:50 UTC	2	$340	270	267	+3	Down	+$192	03-18 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$300	924	0	+924	Down	-$300	05-04 16:27
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:40 UTC	1	$300	329	0	+329	Up	+$29	08-19 21:43
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 13:55 UTC	1	$265	381	0	+381	Up	-$265	03-18 13:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 15:25 UTC	2	$230	133	132	+1	Up	+$31	03-18 15:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:05 UTC	3	$214	144	144	+0	Down	+$74	07-15 16:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:35 UTC	2	$214	115	115	+0	Up	+$14	07-15 15:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	1	$200	383	0	+383	Down	+$183	05-04 16:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 18:29:13	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	112	25¢	$28	0xe69283…
10-28 18:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xa4027a…
10-28 17:57:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	227	2¢	$5	0x83a62c…
10-28 17:57:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,400	0¢	$5	0xc90f2c…
10-28 17:17:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$21	0x659d73…
10-28 14:24:56	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,000	0¢	$4	0x1edb2a…
10-28 14:20:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xf74a58…
10-28 14:14:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa6794a…
10-28 14:13:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xd870d3…
10-28 14:11:38	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xdc98f6…
10-28 14:09:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x6a35f8…
10-28 14:08:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x9fc2a1…
10-28 14:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x626bdb…
10-28 14:00:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x406454…
10-22 17:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	240	21¢	$50	0xfbfe29…
10-22 17:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	138	19¢	$27	0x25a2f3…
10-22 17:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x3d9155…
10-22 17:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	248	40¢	$100	0xe515ae…
10-22 17:43:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x75274b…
10-22 17:42:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0x056de2…
10-21 21:41:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0xf9b187…
10-21 21:36:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	37	30¢	$11	0xda6882…
10-20 22:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xa5eddc…
09-12 15:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x47665b…
09-12 15:03:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x262d76…
09-10 11:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xc73e23…
09-10 10:56:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x7d4018…
09-10 10:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x71040f…
09-10 10:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0x28bcb2…
09-09 14:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xc6ebca…
09-09 13:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x028819…
09-03 13:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x7efa61…
09-03 13:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x4f8190…
09-03 13:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x26fead…
09-03 13:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x0d7954…
09-03 13:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	66¢	$1	0x4fc656…
09-03 13:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x5f7463…
09-03 12:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xddf5a5…
09-03 12:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x5cb9eb…
09-03 12:41:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x8dfe54…
08-19 22:06:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xdaab51…
08-19 22:02:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	180	83¢	$150	0x8bc818…
08-19 21:56:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:55 UTC	Up	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xda4056…
08-19 21:52:55	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xcde7d6…
08-19 21:52:52	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xa4cb75…
08-19 21:52:52	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:50 UTC	Up	BUY	55	33¢	$18	0x637781…
08-19 21:49:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfa6d26…
08-19 21:43:46	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	329	91¢	$300	0x3713ea…
08-18 15:35:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 15:30 UTC	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xc2035a…
08-18 15:32:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xe896b3…
08-17 01:08:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-17 01:00 UTC	Down	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0xe62d87…
08-17 00:46:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:45 UTC	Up	BUY	41	32¢	$13	0x32590b…
08-17 00:46:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:45 UTC	Up	BUY	27	32¢	$9	0x855557…
08-17 00:43:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:40 UTC	Down	BUY	133	3¢	$4	0x487525…
08-17 00:38:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:35 UTC	Down	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x04a1cc…
08-17 00:37:58	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:35 UTC	Down	BUY	41	48¢	$20	0x56710d…
08-17 00:30:39	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xa5f7b5…
08-17 00:30:28	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xf9aaa3…
08-17 00:30:28	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xbf2ca1…
08-17 00:30:28	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xb3d40d…
08-17 00:30:28	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	43¢	$1	0x88eb3f…
08-17 00:30:28	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x39251d…
08-17 00:30:24	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0x7b4edd…
08-17 00:30:24	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0x6569c4…
08-17 00:30:24	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0x638bf7…
08-17 00:30:24	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x62f3f3…
08-17 00:30:16	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0xf1a777…
08-17 00:30:10	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0xce3b44…
08-17 00:30:10	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0x317673…
08-17 00:28:34	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:25 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x71fb16…
08-17 00:26:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:25 UTC	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x01df5c…
08-17 00:22:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 00:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x6f596d…
08-16 23:52:39	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 23:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xac8eb6…
08-16 23:51:01	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 23:50 UTC	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x1fff9e…
08-16 23:43:04	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 23:40 UTC	Up	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0x9f8534…
08-16 23:36:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 23:35 UTC	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x84c359…
08-16 23:32:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x69b823…
08-16 23:16:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x8d7f35…
08-16 23:14:04	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x8f1f00…
08-16 23:09:13	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 23:05 UTC	Up	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0xb2929b…
08-16 23:05:24	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0x26713f…
08-16 23:05:01	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$2	0xb7585e…
08-16 23:04:45	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x77cf45…
08-16 23:04:45	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x47ddc5…
08-16 23:04:45	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x141c2b…
08-16 23:04:43	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x919d95…
08-16 23:04:43	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x8f98b2…
08-16 23:04:43	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x892a1d…
08-16 23:04:16	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x62ccaf…
08-16 23:04:16	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x0877ff…
08-16 22:50:16	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xdf8073…
08-16 22:50:16	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	0	41¢	$0	0xaaed28…
08-16 22:50:16	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	0	41¢	$0	0x02debc…
08-16 22:50:15	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x4a2fec…
08-16 22:50:15	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x321828…
08-16 22:50:10	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x5413b8…
08-16 22:50:06	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xedb61d…
08-16 22:42:37	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x325a19…
08-16 22:42:13	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x3a62c0…
08-16 22:32:00	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0xd0938d…