Realized P&L
-$221
Unrealized P&L
+$1.12K
Hit rate
71.5%
Resolved
486
Trades
9,762
lifetime
Volume
$535.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$55
Open exposure
$5.55K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-08
last 11-11 08:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 186 days
Categories
Politics
71% 53% -$2,273
Other
29% 46% +$2,704
Sports
0% 0% -$652
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 467 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +500 -$309 97¢ $484 +$792 10-29 17:33
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-48 House election by 18%-21%? Yes +442 $291 76¢ $337 +$46 11-10 03:23
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-31 House election by 30% or more? Yes +362 $189 89¢ $322 +$133 11-08 03:17
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-05 House election by 5%-10%? Yes +626 $280 46¢ $288 +$8 11-08 23:33
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-09 House election by 30% or more? Yes +300 $180 91¢ $273 +$93 11-07 18:03
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes +500 $252 48¢ $242 -$10 11-11 05:46
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31? Yes +1,110 $235 21¢ $233 -$1 11-11 03:51
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-46 House election by 35% or more? Yes +250 $137 92¢ $231 +$94 11-07 18:09
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-05 House election by 10%-15%? Yes +315 $243 72¢ $227 -$16 11-11 05:15
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes +581 $220 39¢ $226 +$7 11-11 06:04
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-43 House election by 65% or more? Yes +262 $143 76¢ $198 +$56 11-09 23:06
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-49 House election by 15%-20%? Yes +270 $158 72¢ $195 +$36 11-09 02:19
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-32 House election by 35%-40%? Yes +400 $233 44¢ $178 -$56 11-10 20:58
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-01 House election by 15%-20%? Yes +213 $131 75¢ $160 +$29 11-10 01:13
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31? Yes +1,730 $173 9¢ $152 -$21 11-11 03:49
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +2,751 $73 5¢ $147 +$74 11-11 04:09
Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? No +301 $274 48¢ $144 -$129 11-08 15:13
Israel military action against Lebanon on November 26? Yes +176 $45 74¢ $131 +$86 11-10 00:00
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 30, 2026? Yes +339 $173 38¢ $131 -$42 11-10 11:15
Israel military action against Lebanon on November 19? Yes +187 $135 67¢ $125 -$9 11-09 15:52
Will Iran target Jordan by November 30, 2026? Yes +430 $207 29¢ $125 -$82 11-10 20:33
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +330 $127 38¢ $124 -$3 11-11 05:52
Will USD be at least 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31? Yes +3,707 $150 3¢ $119 -$32 11-09 03:52
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-49 House election by 10%-15%? Yes +260 $38 45¢ $118 +$79 11-09 02:22
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? No +134 $115 86¢ $115 +$1 11-10 22:52
Israel military action against Lebanon on November 11? Yes +117 $85 96¢ $112 +$27 11-09 17:54
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-15 House election by 55%-60%? Yes +161 $113 69¢ $111 -$1 11-09 21:51
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 12, 2026? Yes +939 $60 11¢ $104 +$44 11-11 05:02
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-51 House election by 25%-30%? Yes +263 $169 38¢ $101 -$68 11-09 14:07
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-04 House election by 15%-20%? Yes +280 $112 36¢ $101 -$11 11-09 23:25