Jolly-Thaw — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 07-05 14:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 100% +$0

Politics

13% — —

Other

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	14	$44	600	600	+0	open	—	02-20 13:58
bitcoin above 76k on april 11	1	$33	34	0	+34	open	—	04-11 10:34
bitcoin above 76k on april 10	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	04-10 14:37
bitcoin above 74k on april 9	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	04-09 07:40
bitcoin above 72k on april 7	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	04-07 12:47
ethereum above 2300 on april 6	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	04-05 21:19
ethereum above 2200 on april 4	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	04-04 07:27
ethereum above 1900 on april 3	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	04-03 13:21
ethereum above 2400 on april 1	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	04-01 10:00
ethereum above 2200 on march 31	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	03-31 12:29
ethereum above 2200 on march 29	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	03-29 10:13
ethereum above 2200 on march 28	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	03-28 07:14
ethereum above 1800 on march 27	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	03-27 13:13
ethereum above 1900 on march 26	3	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	03-26 04:19
bitcoin above 76k on march 25	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	03-25 03:31
will the price of ethereum be less than 1800 on march 23	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	03-23 08:50
ethereum above 2200 on march 22	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	03-22 14:34
will bitcoin reach 76k on march 21	1	$32	33	0	+33	open	—	03-21 14:24
will bitcoin reach 78k on march 20	1	$32	32	0	+32	open	—	03-20 14:08
will bitcoin reach 76k on march 19	1	$32	32	0	+32	open	—	03-19 14:15
us strikes iraq by march 7	1	$32	32	0	+32	open	—	03-11 10:02
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	open	—	03-03 08:00
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	02-22 03:14
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	1	$29	30	0	+30	open	—	02-18 15:13
bitcoin above 62k on march 13	1	$22	22	0	+22	open	—	03-12 16:32
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	1	$21	22	0	+22	open	—	03-01 15:18
ethereum above 1900 on june 25 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	open	—	06-25 15:30
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	1	$21	21	0	+21	open	—	02-28 16:19
bitcoin above 66k on june 11 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	06-11 05:45
bitcoin above 80k on march 17	1	$19	19	0	+19	open	—	03-17 09:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 14:26:52	ethereum above 1900 on july 5 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd954b0…
07-02 03:06:23	bitcoin above 66k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x51f230…
06-28 14:05:05	ethereum above 1700 on june 28 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x117f56…
06-25 15:30:13	ethereum above 1900 on june 25 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x988c16…
06-19 11:57:13	ethereum above 1800 on june 19 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x04ea88…
06-14 09:46:06	bitcoin above 68k on june 14 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x9803fa…
06-12 10:10:19	ethereum above 1800 on june 12 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xfb8d92…
06-11 05:45:36	bitcoin above 66k on june 11 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xdc0697…
06-07 08:25:31	bitcoin above 66k on june 7 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb38da7…
06-04 13:34:06	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x5623d2…
05-21 10:41:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$13	0xbb44b4…
05-20 14:17:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0f3172…
05-15 12:41:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x699e5a…
05-14 10:39:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xdfbf12…
05-11 12:40:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2d948e…
05-10 13:30:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xdb220a…
05-07 12:57:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x2aa702…
05-05 14:16:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x9b7866…
05-03 10:26:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x678ba0…
05-02 14:22:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1ec905…
04-29 15:35:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x69fd73…
04-27 12:44:24	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb89730…
04-23 09:29:50	bitcoin above 82k on april 23	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x07a806…
04-22 13:33:56	bitcoin above 82k on april 22	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3bddb2…
04-20 13:58:50	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 90 114	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x69f85e…
04-19 12:41:18	bitcoin above 78k on april 19	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4a46b2…
04-18 14:08:16	ethereum above 2500 on april 18	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xdebe13…
04-17 14:41:42	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3a7efd…
04-16 12:32:34	bitcoin above 78k on april 16	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x0cdd84…
04-15 08:51:36	bitcoin above 78k on april 15	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x774520…
04-14 17:41:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x4e95c5…
04-14 17:40:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xcd8dc3…
04-14 13:32:21	ethereum above 2100 on april 14	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xcee92e…
04-13 12:35:37	bitcoin above 74k on april 13	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xaf9096…
04-11 10:34:35	bitcoin above 76k on april 11	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0x7b6652…
04-10 14:37:05	bitcoin above 76k on april 10	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xbc66ff…
04-09 07:40:47	bitcoin above 74k on april 9	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x1d9644…
04-07 12:47:51	bitcoin above 72k on april 7	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xa8382e…
04-05 21:19:41	ethereum above 2300 on april 6	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x400e09…
04-04 07:27:39	ethereum above 2200 on april 4	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x98d579…
04-03 13:21:41	ethereum above 1900 on april 3	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x45de95…
04-01 10:00:59	ethereum above 2400 on april 1	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xe269d4…
03-31 12:29:41	ethereum above 2200 on march 31	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x86bb3e…
03-29 10:13:08	ethereum above 2200 on march 29	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xc21c8b…
03-28 07:14:21	ethereum above 2200 on march 28	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x683966…
03-27 13:13:19	ethereum above 1800 on march 27	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xe8cfd1…
03-26 04:19:25	ethereum above 1900 on march 26	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x6ad9ef…
03-26 04:10:37	ethereum above 1900 on march 26	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8e84e0…
03-26 02:28:31	ethereum above 1900 on march 26	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x34c5d2…
03-25 03:31:35	bitcoin above 76k on march 25	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x6809ee…
03-23 08:50:21	will the price of ethereum be less than 1800 on march 23	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x013a92…
03-22 14:34:05	ethereum above 2200 on march 22	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x67cd7d…
03-21 14:24:21	will bitcoin reach 76k on march 21	No	BUY	33	100¢	$32	0xc34b3e…
03-20 14:08:29	will bitcoin reach 78k on march 20	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x60083d…
03-19 14:15:41	will bitcoin reach 76k on march 19	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x5ed78c…
03-18 02:34:25	bitcoin above 80k on march 18	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x46cd26…
03-17 09:56:09	bitcoin above 80k on march 17	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xf45a0c…
03-16 10:18:57	bitcoin above 68k on march 16	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x6a4173…
03-16 00:59:35	will bitcoin reach 79k on march 15	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6440a7…
03-12 16:32:49	bitcoin above 62k on march 13	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xa129fc…
03-11 10:02:21	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xddabd6…
03-03 08:00:21	will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x19325e…
03-01 15:18:29	will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$21	0x92c8fa…
02-28 16:19:31	will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2937c2…
02-22 03:14:40	us strikes iran by february 21 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x136950…
02-20 13:58:40	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x9470b3…
02-20 13:58:38	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0x63ab99…
02-20 13:53:50	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$1	0xb8478a…
02-20 13:53:50	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	130	4¢	$5	0x8f670e…
02-20 13:53:50	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	47	4¢	$2	0x8c22c0…
02-20 13:53:26	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	39	4¢	$1	0x786355…
02-20 13:53:10	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x4a9360…
02-20 13:52:42	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x30ee1f…
02-20 13:48:24	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	54	4¢	$2	0xffb662…
02-20 13:48:22	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x467b4a…
02-20 13:47:06	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0x346d73…
02-20 13:46:16	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0xd8a030…
02-20 13:46:16	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0x8193d3…
02-20 13:41:54	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	600	4¢	$22	0x23cf3f…
02-18 15:13:10	us strikes iran by february 18 2026	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xc9097d…
02-16 00:41:25	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	SELL	1,765	0¢	$4	0x5bcf70…
02-16 00:31:15	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	SELL	1,236	0¢	$2	0x31660d…
02-15 07:24:19	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	173	0¢	$0	0x5b2070…
02-15 07:20:23	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0xff5c46…
02-15 07:18:07	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xfd7015…
02-15 07:16:31	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	146	0¢	$0	0xb45ef5…
02-15 07:11:07	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0xd7a252…
02-15 07:07:33	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x23b8dc…
02-15 07:05:13	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x9a146a…
02-15 07:02:43	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x747247…
02-15 07:01:13	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	2,600	0¢	$5	0xb24b6b…
02-10 09:39:51	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	Yes	SELL	537	0¢	$2	0x3b63fa…
02-09 17:32:35	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	537	0¢	$2	0x062079…