Jolly-Thaw — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

165

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$2.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 11-06 15:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 153 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 97% +$2

Other

41% 100% +$6

Politics

7% 71% +$1

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	14	$44	600	600	+0	No	+$0	02-20 13:58
bitcoin above 76k on april 11	1	$33	34	0	+34	No	+$0	04-11 10:34
bitcoin above 76k on april 10	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	04-10 14:37
bitcoin above 74k on april 9	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	04-09 07:40
bitcoin above 72k on april 7	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	04-07 12:47
ethereum above 2300 on april 6	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	04-05 21:19
ethereum above 2200 on april 4	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	04-04 07:27
ethereum above 1900 on april 3	1	$33	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	04-03 13:21
ethereum above 2400 on april 1	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	04-01 10:00
ethereum above 2200 on march 31	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-31 12:29
ethereum above 2200 on march 29	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-29 10:13
ethereum above 2200 on march 28	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-28 07:14
ethereum above 1800 on march 27	1	$33	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	03-27 13:13
ethereum above 1900 on march 26	3	$33	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	03-26 04:19
bitcoin above 76k on march 25	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-25 03:31
will the price of ethereum be less than 1800 on march 23	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-23 08:50
ethereum above 2200 on march 22	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-22 14:34
will bitcoin reach 76k on march 21	1	$32	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-21 14:24
will bitcoin reach 78k on march 20	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	03-20 14:08
will bitcoin reach 76k on march 19	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	03-19 14:15
us strikes iraq by march 7	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	03-11 10:02
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	03-03 08:00
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	02-22 03:14
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	1	$29	30	0	+30	No	+$1	02-18 15:13
bitcoin above 62k on march 13	1	$22	22	0	+22	Yes	+$0	03-12 16:32
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	1	$21	22	0	+22	Yes	+$1	03-01 15:18
ethereum above 1900 on june 25 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	06-25 15:30
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	02-28 16:19
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	07-04 03:48
bitcoin above 66k on june 11 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-11 05:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 15:37:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6b8fca…
11-06 15:36:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xee1edf…
11-06 15:35:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xb98d74…
11-06 15:16:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4b1eb2…
11-03 14:36:22	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6fb5fc…
11-01 15:14:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9ed240…
10-30 12:38:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2b1f2f…
10-25 12:44:11	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 25?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfa1ab9…
10-19 12:57:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x7b1233…
10-07 17:09:04	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	18	95¢	$18	0xa1418e…
10-04 14:47:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x10a5ae…
10-01 19:41:50	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x6570ca…
10-01 15:32:06	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0x6d209b…
09-30 14:02:21	Will Elon tweet 920-959 times in September 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x3aedad…
09-29 07:45:05	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xf028f6…
09-29 01:04:54	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x7269f3…
09-27 19:11:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x89deaf…
09-27 12:38:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x5aba73…
09-25 07:22:08	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x258648…
09-25 07:22:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x74b689…
09-25 02:06:33	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc6329c…
09-21 17:14:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x57df8a…
09-21 16:25:51	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xa06dd7…
09-21 14:19:29	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb1cf29…
09-20 09:21:12	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x87dd1c…
09-18 14:17:15	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x7fbb6a…
09-17 00:37:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$9	0x359fa1…
09-15 19:55:33	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x1ec469…
09-15 16:13:48	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x91bf7a…
09-14 09:18:07	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xd73c3b…
09-10 12:48:27	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5dffaa…
09-09 01:28:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xfb7264…
09-08 10:27:19	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x944ba6…
09-07 17:55:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x731c13…
09-07 00:35:03	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x58f5c7…
09-04 18:35:36	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2ef73e…
09-04 00:40:07	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb82293…
09-03 13:33:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 3?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x14e88f…
09-02 13:22:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x5f2542…
08-31 05:24:37	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x3b4574…
08-30 09:15:28	bitcoin above 82k on august 30 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4eb07e…
08-27 19:10:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd4a62f…
08-27 12:55:27	bitcoin above 84k on august 27 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd3485e…
08-24 18:56:33	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xaa7b6d…
08-23 16:55:28	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x8d83ad…
08-22 06:16:48	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x40dbfb…
08-20 16:10:18	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6977cc…
08-18 10:24:00	bitcoin above 68k on august 18 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbf3cd0…
08-17 10:51:52	ethereum above 2000 on august 17 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5e10a9…
08-14 10:53:34	bitcoin above 66k on august 14 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0ee705…
08-13 15:26:04	bitcoin above 66k on august 13 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x96076a…
08-12 11:47:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7bfcb6…
08-11 19:12:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x7dcd77…
08-11 19:12:09	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x2fe85b…
08-10 12:01:07	bitcoin above 68k on august 10 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x7fc2f3…
08-08 12:30:37	bitcoin above 68k on august 8 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x827da9…
08-07 10:35:34	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd0f00b…
08-06 13:08:23	bitcoin above 68k on august 6 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb155aa…
08-05 12:53:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x72e0f8…
08-04 07:42:08	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd3fe6d…
08-01 08:35:08	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x899a27…
07-31 09:39:00	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x786b29…
07-29 12:09:03	bitcoin above 68k on july 29 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x3d49c7…
07-27 13:46:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x04b703…
07-24 07:13:28	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4e7512…
07-23 13:33:18	ethereum above 2000 on july 23 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x5fecdd…
07-22 12:08:13	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x215668…
07-21 12:49:18	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x5dd6b8…
07-19 11:41:40	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0838f3…
07-18 08:40:15	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbf505c…
07-16 16:40:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x227493…
07-15 12:29:16	bitcoin above 68k on july 15 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x7b947b…
07-14 02:45:40	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x591853…
07-12 21:23:49	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc47a95…
07-11 12:39:19	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xae6fe4…
07-10 05:11:34	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0133b8…
07-09 01:32:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on July 9?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbb31f9…
07-08 02:06:29	bitcoin above 68k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf36aa1…
07-07 03:21:46	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8ea116…
07-07 01:48:56	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xcc0654…
07-05 14:26:52	ethereum above 1900 on july 5 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd954b0…
07-04 03:48:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc46eff…
07-03 01:44:26	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6a9997…
07-02 03:06:23	bitcoin above 66k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x51f230…
06-30 08:34:41	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xbe8116…
06-29 08:27:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xc9a03d…
06-28 14:05:05	ethereum above 1700 on june 28 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x117f56…
06-27 13:16:14	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5c8fba…
06-26 13:22:37	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x84eb1f…
06-25 15:30:13	ethereum above 1900 on june 25 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x988c16…
06-23 07:22:14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x401a3b…
06-20 08:26:34	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0x630967…
06-19 11:57:13	ethereum above 1800 on june 19 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x04ea88…
06-17 10:02:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xfd8f3e…
06-16 01:05:27	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4cd561…
06-14 09:46:06	bitcoin above 68k on june 14 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x9803fa…
06-13 15:44:21	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x03fdfa…
06-12 10:10:19	ethereum above 1800 on june 12 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xfb8d92…
06-11 05:45:36	bitcoin above 66k on june 11 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xdc0697…
06-10 10:00:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9bcb3b…