Lopsided-Promotion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$147

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

86.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,194

lifetime

Volume

$108.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$100

1 position

First seen

2026-03-20

last 07-21 11:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

54% 72% $-260

Politics

33% 92% +$92

Sports

10% 50% +$20

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+101	$99	99¢	$100	+$1	07-15 15:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	16	$2.5K	4,774	0	+4,774	open	—	06-13 17:17
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	9	$1.6K	2,166	2,166	+0	open	—	05-30 12:59
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	8	$1.3K	734	619	+115	open	—	06-01 21:04
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	13	$1.1K	572	572	+0	open	—	07-01 11:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	9	$1.1K	607	607	+0	open	—	07-01 11:22
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	10	$1.1K	785	370	+415	open	—	05-31 03:07
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	11	$1.0K	498	670	-172	open	—	06-01 22:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	8	$1.0K	548	548	+0	open	—	05-29 14:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	11	$984	533	533	+0	open	—	05-14 22:54
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	7	$930	480	480	+0	open	—	06-01 02:59
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31?	12	$907	647	338	+309	open	—	05-29 17:30
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	17	$903	465	465	+0	open	—	04-22 14:32
atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	9	$840	437	437	+0	open	—	06-05 15:44
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi	8	$813	487	487	+0	open	—	06-02 00:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	7	$810	567	360	+207	open	—	06-27 02:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	10	$808	631	631	+0	open	—	04-30 19:15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	12	$797	453	453	+0	open	—	05-29 16:35
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	11	$776	459	505	-46	open	—	06-29 16:17
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	10	$728	489	489	+0	open	—	07-01 03:21
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	9	$698	392	392	+0	open	—	05-29 04:05
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	12	$689	378	378	+0	open	—	06-28 11:30
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31?	11	$687	516	224	+292	open	—	05-31 03:11
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	7	$675	375	375	+0	open	—	06-12 12:55
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	7	$667	588	122	+466	open	—	05-31 03:13
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	13	$662	446	446	+0	open	—	04-12 17:38
starmer out by june 15 2026	10	$649	333	333	+0	open	—	06-12 14:16
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	6	$627	322	322	+0	open	—	04-30 17:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	12	$622	372	372	+0	open	—	04-24 21:17
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	10	$621	441	341	+100	open	—	04-29 20:32
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	12	$619	367	367	+0	open	—	04-25 06:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 13:38:31	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0xf51c68…
07-21 11:46:19	atp gaubas busta 2026 07 20	Pablo Carreno Busta	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x8b000e…
07-21 11:40:45	wta barthel putints 2026 07 21	Yulia Putintseva	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0x41b896…
07-21 11:35:10	atp gaubas busta 2026 07 20	Pablo Carreno Busta	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x418fb0…
07-21 11:29:58	wta barthel putints 2026 07 21	Mona Barthel	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x377d63…
07-21 11:28:31	atp gaubas busta 2026 07 20	Pablo Carreno Busta	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x2cc900…
07-21 11:27:03	wta barthel putints 2026 07 21	Yulia Putintseva	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x95aa84…
07-20 20:31:31	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Down	SELL	120	100¢	$119	0x9fbb85…
07-20 18:46:33	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Down	SELL	113	61¢	$69	0x48819a…
07-20 01:34:16	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	No	BUY	52	88¢	$46	0x5587d7…
07-20 01:33:42	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Down	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0x12e046…
07-19 22:05:49	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	SELL	111	100¢	$110	0xcbb397…
07-19 21:45:51	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0x4e3357…
07-19 21:22:06	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	SELL	34	70¢	$24	0xb4aee0…
07-19 19:53:33	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	No	BUY	51	85¢	$43	0x1cd5d4…
07-19 19:52:25	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x32f478…
07-19 19:52:00	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	51	17¢	$9	0x274238…
07-19 19:38:21	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x6691eb…
07-15 15:39:28	spx up or down on july 15 2026	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x1afe00…
07-15 15:37:07	will russia capture serhiivka by july 31	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x2a0d64…
07-15 15:36:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xb9ab4b…
07-14 19:03:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	103	98¢	$101	0x95f58a…
07-14 19:03:52	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	102	99¢	$102	0x5742fa…
07-14 19:02:53	will russia capture verkhnia tersa by july 31	No	SELL	109	96¢	$104	0xe9c419…
07-14 19:02:43	will russia capture stavky by july 31	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x1d494c…
07-13 21:11:13	btc updown 15m 1783976400	Down	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0x04703a…
07-13 21:09:53	btc updown 15m 1783976400	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x758ac2…
07-13 21:09:50	btc updown 15m 1783976400	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1c843c…
07-13 21:09:13	btc updown 15m 1783976400	Down	SELL	22	80¢	$17	0x29cdd8…
07-13 21:08:47	btc updown 15m 1783976400	Up	SELL	17	25¢	$4	0x9703b9…
07-13 21:07:47	btc updown 15m 1783976400	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xbc73de…
07-13 21:07:44	btc updown 15m 1783976400	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x516bdf…
07-13 21:07:35	btc updown 15m 1783976400	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xec51e6…
07-13 21:07:05	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Down	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x1cb33f…
07-13 21:06:17	btc updown 15m 1783976400	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x033cb3…
07-13 11:05:43	wta gormaz kulamba 2026 07 13	Zhibek Kulambayeva	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x8f7aaf…
07-13 11:04:26	wta grabher bertea 2026 07 13	Elena Ruxandra Bertea	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc2117e…
07-13 11:01:05	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x7ebd0c…
07-13 10:55:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	82	97¢	$80	0xe425d2…
07-13 10:54:20	will russia capture verkhnia tersa by july 31	No	BUY	97	92¢	$90	0xd7a988…
07-12 18:17:55	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12	Jannik Sinner	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x1cb6c3…
07-10 19:30:44	spx up or down on july 10 2026	Up	SELL	202	98¢	$198	0x44c7d1…
07-10 19:17:53	spx up or down on july 10 2026	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x17c2c7…
07-10 18:13:13	spx up or down on july 10 2026	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x068428…
07-10 10:05:40	spx up or down on july 10 2026	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb54f3a…
07-09 17:00:52	spx up or down on july 9 2026	Down	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xff7a96…
07-09 10:08:07	spx up or down on july 9 2026	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x10e193…
07-08 20:19:53	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Down	SELL	116	100¢	$115	0x490d4e…
07-08 10:45:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x6df476…
07-08 10:44:40	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x49ff51…
07-07 20:50:49	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x85e5f4…
07-06 22:17:22	spx up or down on july 6 2026	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x9f855f…
07-04 10:01:47	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x398e24…
07-04 10:01:26	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	74	42¢	$31	0x65136f…
07-04 10:00:49	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xe301ca…
07-03 18:34:11	spx up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x46919a…
07-03 03:28:23	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	15	25¢	$4	0x07e26b…
07-03 03:23:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	52	99¢	$52	0xe7048a…
07-03 03:23:11	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x984599…
07-03 03:22:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	12	92¢	$11	0x9c813f…
07-02 20:00:05	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xbae046…
07-02 19:58:38	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xbf7c90…
07-02 19:58:01	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Down	SELL	109	93¢	$101	0x80a727…
07-02 18:49:29	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	87	92¢	$80	0xf1174d…
07-02 18:49:17	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x49bb38…
07-02 18:38:04	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Down	SELL	65	89¢	$58	0x43c1f3…
07-02 14:32:16	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	53	17¢	$9	0x8aad8a…
07-02 13:52:52	spx up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe4d5f4…
07-01 22:26:01	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xa9fc7e…
07-01 22:24:35	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0xcfa418…
07-01 22:21:02	will russia capture toretske by july 31 2026	No	BUY	163	92¢	$150	0xb20ee8…
07-01 22:05:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x760b66…
07-01 22:05:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x65a7e4…
07-01 22:04:32	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xb73a23…
07-01 22:04:22	will russia capture all of drobysheve by july 31	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xda8778…
07-01 20:02:05	atp tsitsip djokovi 2026 07 01	Novak Djokovic	SELL	53	96¢	$50	0x962ae9…
07-01 20:00:53	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	13	67¢	$9	0xe90a9b…
07-01 19:59:56	atp tsitsip djokovi 2026 07 01	Novak Djokovic	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x351821…
07-01 19:58:22	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	SELL	224	98¢	$220	0x3b8c6f…
07-01 19:57:43	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x2a2804…
07-01 19:56:02	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x20c924…
07-01 19:55:34	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x709227…
07-01 19:54:55	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4933c6…
07-01 19:43:38	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Up	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x854cd1…
07-01 19:43:34	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	SELL	31	87¢	$27	0x02fb3b…
07-01 19:30:37	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xad7259…
07-01 19:27:04	atp tsitsip djokovi 2026 07 01	Novak Djokovic	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x49452a…
07-01 15:23:35	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x245a1b…
07-01 13:33:38	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xf521b7…
07-01 13:22:17	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0xa5be58…
07-01 12:57:05	spx up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	13	67¢	$9	0x39c35a…
07-01 12:04:49	will russia capture verkhnia tersa by july 31	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x8c0bc4…
07-01 12:03:44	will russia capture stavky by july 31	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x4d5102…
07-01 12:03:16	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd5f68d…
07-01 12:02:53	will russia capture toretske by july 31 2026	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x12945c…
07-01 12:02:37	will russia capture serhiivka by july 31	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0d23bb…
07-01 12:02:07	will russia capture myropillia by july 31	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x05dbfc…
07-01 12:01:16	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x934585…
07-01 11:59:14	will russia capture all of drobysheve by july 31	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xad604f…
07-01 11:58:58	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x012154…