Competent-Rubber — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.43K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

85.3%

Resolved

136

Trades

1,129

lifetime

Volume

$87.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 09-15 20:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

68% 72% +$3,153

Tech

18% 45% -$1,499

Politics

14% 70% -$212

Crypto

0% 0% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No		+0	$0	90¢	$0	+$0	06-21 07:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will google gemini 3 score at least 60 on the frontiermath benchmark by	18	$4.7K	2,457	2,457	+0	No	+$97	01-28 09:34
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?	22	$4.5K	3,053	1,887	+1,166	No	+$329	06-05 08:18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	24	$3.9K	2,125	2,787	-663	Yes	+$14	06-08 09:54
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	53	$3.6K	3,639	1,714	+1,926	Yes	-$1,155	06-07 03:26
will copper hg hit high 7pt00 by end of february	12	$3.1K	1,698	1,693	+5	No	+$223	02-17 09:34
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	33	$2.9K	1,679	1,554	+125	No	+$95	06-17 01:51
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	37	$2.7K	1,568	1,568	+0	Yes	+$73	06-02 01:48
will silver si hit high 130 by end of february 915 491 526 914 543 364	7	$2.6K	1,457	1,457	+0	No	+$126	02-07 10:49
will crude oil cl hit high 75 by end of february	19	$2.2K	2,282	200	+2,082	No	+$283	02-26 23:39
will gold gc hit high 6400 by end of february 581 221 834 595 555	5	$2.0K	1,050	1,050	+0	No	+$3	02-01 17:54
will sp 500 spx hit 6000 low in march 2026	10	$1.9K	1,049	1,049	+0	No	+$37	03-24 15:01
will the sp 500 index lose at least 4 on any day in q1	26	$1.8K	2,300	0	+2,300	No	+$470	03-04 11:05
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	22	$1.8K	1,400	800	+600	No	+$110	06-06 21:03
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	11	$1.8K	1,006	1,006	+0	open	—	07-14 12:32
will gold gc hit high 6000 by end of february 957 635 788 121 773 745 586	9	$1.6K	901	901	+0	No	+$88	02-07 22:27
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	16	$1.3K	690	690	+0	No	+$18	05-30 19:07
spx opens up or down on january 26 2026	16	$1.3K	1,469	1,469	+0	Up	+$400	01-26 14:14
Will S&P 500 (SPX) open between $7,500 and $7,600 on May 26, 2026?	4	$1.2K	736	736	+0	Yes	+$233	05-26 14:03
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	8	$1.2K	749	749	+0	open	—	05-30 09:34
will silver si hit high 160 by end of february 597 366 984 937	6	$1.2K	690	690	+0	No	+$116	02-01 17:31
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?	8	$1.1K	592	592	+0	No	+$2	01-31 09:11
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	13	$1.1K	628	628	+0	Yes	+$0	06-01 16:14
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?	9	$1.1K	631	631	+0	open	—	07-14 12:31
will google gemini 3 score at least 45 on humanitys last exam by january 31	7	$1.1K	555	555	+0	No	+$15	01-27 06:33
will the sp 500 index gain at least 4 on any day in q1	8	$1.1K	591	591	+0	No	+$27	03-06 00:24
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	7	$1.1K	499	799	-300	No	+$148	01-21 19:31
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$940	500	500	+0	Yes	+$10	01-30 10:49
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31	3	$914	503	503	+0	No	+$72	01-24 00:05
will baidu have the second best ai model at the end of january 2026	7	$883	489	489	+0	No	$0	01-17 22:38
will the percentage change in the sp 500 in q1 2026 be less than 0	12	$847	1,290	1,290	+0	Yes	+$171	01-22 02:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-15 20:25:31	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?	Yes	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x66df38…
08-28 15:20:37	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0xd8a284…
08-28 15:20:33	Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	No	SELL	17	87¢	$14	0x6f53f4…
08-28 15:20:24	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	Yes	SELL	479	58¢	$278	0xc9da5d…
08-24 08:23:58	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?	Yes	SELL	12	26¢	$3	0x855013…
08-18 21:32:09	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	107	77¢	$83	0x70268e…
08-14 15:43:06	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?	Yes	SELL	15	26¢	$4	0x7d9275…
08-04 00:02:03	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	160	47¢	$75	0x83c7e0…
07-14 22:12:07	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	SELL	221	92¢	$202	0xcd7265…
07-14 21:49:26	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x70d370…
07-14 12:36:14	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	SELL	48	91¢	$44	0xf73f8a…
07-14 12:32:37	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	SELL	355	90¢	$320	0xff1904…
07-14 12:31:59	Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?	No	SELL	400	92¢	$368	0xd2859d…
07-14 12:31:46	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	SELL	131	92¢	$120	0x3d29c1…
07-06 01:37:40	will syria recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	105	91¢	$95	0xb855c6…
06-21 13:51:52	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	BUY	355	87¢	$309	0xda1e68…
06-21 07:59:52	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	66	83¢	$54	0x8b0a8a…
06-21 07:57:29	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	3	83¢	$2	0xd99a16…
06-21 05:26:04	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	22	83¢	$18	0x996107…
06-19 19:33:29	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	44	83¢	$36	0xd269ea…
06-19 13:38:22	Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?	No	BUY	355	87¢	$309	0x831546…
06-19 13:24:02	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	BUY	128	86¢	$110	0xe3bb58…
06-19 13:24:02	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0x7be9dd…
06-19 13:23:56	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0x7243ba…
06-19 13:23:52	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0x51f964…
06-19 13:23:46	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0xe9a58b…
06-19 13:23:40	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0xf5a92e…
06-19 13:23:34	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0xead718…
06-19 13:23:29	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0x009ac5…
06-19 13:23:23	Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	No	BUY	33	86¢	$28	0x6fbf49…
06-18 23:56:25	Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?	No	BUY	25	87¢	$21	0x118b33…
06-18 03:57:13	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x87420c…
06-17 01:51:59	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x92e363…
06-16 22:43:55	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	53	94¢	$50	0xd1aa42…
06-16 20:27:22	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	279	94¢	$262	0xc680e6…
06-15 12:45:54	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	50	77¢	$38	0x7dc9f0…
06-15 12:40:45	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	60	77¢	$46	0xa1b258…
06-15 09:40:52	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0xe28992…
06-15 06:09:45	Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x9ea749…
06-14 10:01:51	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xff0ea5…
06-13 15:14:30	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	175	94¢	$164	0xd42fff…
06-13 12:31:24	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	SELL	102	85¢	$87	0xeddc89…
06-12 22:54:10	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x80991c…
06-12 14:27:37	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x5ab89e…
06-12 14:27:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0x5e9425…
06-12 14:27:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x3d2906…
06-11 21:46:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,600	18¢	$288	0x62355e…
06-11 21:20:46	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	62	83¢	$52	0xba3940…
06-11 20:24:13	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	38	83¢	$32	0x1ae0d4…
06-11 19:52:40	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	SELL	517	24¢	$124	0x4e8680…
06-11 17:08:16	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	SELL	102	24¢	$24	0xcd5e2e…
06-11 15:48:18	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xc79c1c…
06-11 15:48:15	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	137	21¢	$29	0x981409…
06-11 15:48:15	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	80	91¢	$72	0x889bf3…
06-11 15:48:10	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	80	91¢	$73	0xdbd7fe…
06-11 15:48:10	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xd083bf…
06-11 15:48:10	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xcd1107…
06-11 15:48:10	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x9a5618…
06-11 15:48:10	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	80	21¢	$17	0x564dd5…
06-11 15:48:10	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x1d3aec…
06-11 15:48:06	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	78	91¢	$71	0x3eef66…
06-11 15:48:06	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	96	91¢	$88	0x31db7d…
06-11 15:47:34	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xf14a19…
06-11 15:46:22	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	SELL	29	23¢	$7	0x19f15c…
06-11 15:44:04	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x9b371c…
06-11 15:40:25	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?	Yes	SELL	174	17¢	$30	0xf6e8ea…
06-11 14:36:45	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?	Yes	SELL	534	17¢	$91	0xfcd1bc…
06-11 13:06:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,600	25¢	$400	0xb7fc64…
06-11 12:46:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	Yes	BUY	178	66¢	$117	0x8de880…
06-11 11:52:42	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x4eb42a…
06-11 09:09:06	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0xf89d62…
06-11 09:07:07	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xb68988…
06-11 04:08:25	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	125	91¢	$113	0xe2bf4e…
06-11 01:14:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xf7efb3…
06-10 20:19:46	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	55	77¢	$42	0xbb9c9f…
06-10 19:59:57	Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	SELL	118	77¢	$91	0x380c76…
06-10 19:31:31	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	Yes	BUY	22	66¢	$15	0x166299…
06-10 17:54:28	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xac496b…
06-10 17:12:58	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	23	91¢	$21	0x141596…
06-10 16:23:34	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	49	94¢	$46	0x2059e9…
06-10 16:21:31	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x68bb72…
06-10 16:12:39	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x9b49da…
06-10 16:00:54	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xe0cb2b…
06-10 15:31:54	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xffb97b…
06-10 15:31:46	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xd7f81d…
06-10 13:26:22	will usd reach 1pt9m iranian rials by june 30	Yes	SELL	17	41¢	$7	0xdc17e3…
06-10 13:19:34	will usd reach 1pt9m iranian rials by june 30	Yes	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x8a0b1d…
06-10 08:06:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	247	88¢	$217	0x32d7f7…
06-10 03:20:40	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xc477e9…
06-10 02:56:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0xfa2ce4…
06-10 02:56:34	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xdb4d3b…
06-10 02:51:03	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	11	21¢	$2	0xe08dda…
06-10 02:51:01	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xe03d31…
06-10 02:50:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xd33d84…
06-10 02:50:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xad16df…
06-10 02:50:31	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xeac64c…
06-10 02:50:31	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x7e4473…
06-10 02:50:31	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x5c9b33…
06-10 02:50:31	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x5bbffa…
06-10 02:50:31	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?	Yes	BUY	55	25¢	$14	0x5a4985…