Alarmed-Private — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.0%

Resolved

Trades

133

lifetime

Volume

$37.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$284

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 09-21 23:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 100% +$71

Other

46% 83% -$8

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	2	$17.4K	8,705	8,705	+0	No	-$9	05-26 02:09
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	80	$17.4K	8,700	8,700	+0	No	+$0	05-25 07:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	18	$1.6K	1,595	0	+1,595	Up	+$44	05-26 05:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	12	$1.1K	1,072	0	+1,072	Up	+$17	05-26 04:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10PM ET	4	$390	400	0	+400	Down	+$10	05-26 02:55
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	02-10 00:48
will ethereum dip to 1200 in january 2026 477	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-20 02:59
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$4	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	04-19 00:55
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	03-16 05:04
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$3	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	01-20 02:59
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	02-10 00:49
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	03-16 05:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	04-19 00:55
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	06-21 00:20
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	05-26 12:07
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	09-21 23:53
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	08-17 02:08
will benot payan win the marseille mayor election	1	$1	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	03-16 05:05
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on january 23	1	$1	1	0	+1	Yes	+$0	01-20 02:59
will dtmf bad bunny be the 1 song on spotify this week	1	$1	1	0	+1	Yes	+$0	02-10 00:49
highest temperature in hong kong on april 19 2026 26c	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	04-19 00:56
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	06-21 00:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 23:53:40	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x228644…
08-17 02:08:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x638d42…
06-21 00:20:14	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x3411c7…
06-21 00:20:02	Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe92cb5…
05-26 12:07:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2e7012…
05-26 05:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0xdd3243…
05-26 05:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x160395…
05-26 05:51:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc011a0…
05-26 05:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0xe62f7b…
05-26 05:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xd8d587…
05-26 05:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	95	98¢	$93	0x276383…
05-26 05:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0xef96b7…
05-26 05:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x96a0ba…
05-26 05:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4ebaec…
05-26 05:40:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xc75a5a…
05-26 05:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x351d90…
05-26 05:39:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	56	96¢	$54	0xf28ba3…
05-26 05:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xccc79a…
05-26 05:37:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0xe64afd…
05-26 05:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x2addea…
05-26 05:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x6b1837…
05-26 05:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0xb53796…
05-26 05:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	85	85¢	$72	0x0037c9…
05-26 04:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x0e5c08…
05-26 04:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf4001f…
05-26 04:57:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	144	100¢	$144	0x687c39…
05-26 04:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x0b20ed…
05-26 04:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x8c3bbd…
05-26 04:54:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xd8037f…
05-26 04:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x02b961…
05-26 04:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x10a0c6…
05-26 04:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x278ef7…
05-26 04:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	84	95¢	$80	0x9e8bf4…
05-26 04:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x256e45…
05-26 04:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xa2d98f…
05-26 02:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xb37603…
05-26 02:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x56f767…
05-26 02:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4570c4…
05-26 02:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xf6e8f0…
05-26 02:09:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8,705	100¢	$8,679	0x924900…
05-25 07:11:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8,705	100¢	$8,688	0xcf32dc…
05-25 07:10:09	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	550	100¢	$549	0x5b8084…
05-25 07:08:57	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xf63550…
05-25 07:07:14	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x866d91…
05-25 07:06:37	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xe67e40…
05-25 07:06:18	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xe697a1…
05-25 07:06:00	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0x7888f6…
05-25 07:05:59	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x7a6939…
05-25 07:05:57	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x2f75f9…
05-25 07:05:55	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x294ef8…
05-25 07:05:50	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x614c67…
05-25 07:05:48	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x4e75a3…
05-25 07:05:45	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x78f68d…
05-25 07:05:41	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd34feb…
05-25 07:05:38	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xfb316d…
05-25 07:05:34	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x9d937f…
05-25 07:05:32	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xf776d6…
05-25 07:05:29	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x0c5951…
05-25 07:05:25	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x31bedb…
05-25 07:05:24	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x888580…
05-25 07:05:18	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xdb9206…
05-25 07:05:17	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xe24329…
05-25 07:05:13	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x4c8bc1…
05-25 07:05:10	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x42ce72…
05-25 07:05:06	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xd7c38d…
05-25 07:05:03	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x942ec5…
05-25 07:05:01	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x5e5594…
05-25 07:04:59	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x86cde7…
05-25 07:04:57	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x83a89d…
05-25 07:04:54	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xcc7438…
05-25 07:04:50	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xedacf4…
05-25 07:04:47	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x88c040…
05-25 07:04:42	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x4defc7…
05-25 07:04:38	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x25cb66…
05-25 07:04:36	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x031bfa…
05-25 07:04:35	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x3dfb3f…
05-25 07:04:31	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x7ba0e6…
05-25 07:04:28	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x3000fe…
05-25 07:04:24	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xc0d46d…
05-25 07:04:21	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x16e580…
05-25 07:04:17	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x07e3ac…
05-25 07:04:14	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xe8db4a…
05-25 07:04:10	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x17a5df…
05-25 07:04:08	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x287a99…
05-25 07:04:05	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x2d799a…
05-25 07:04:03	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x69fc1a…
05-25 07:04:01	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd8448f…
05-25 07:04:01	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x86c717…
05-25 07:03:58	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xc137fc…
05-25 07:03:56	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x305c65…
05-25 07:03:54	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x2411ab…
05-25 07:03:51	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x5ac631…
05-25 07:03:47	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x5e047f…
05-25 07:03:44	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x26676e…
05-25 07:03:40	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x14d635…
05-25 07:03:39	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xd29c4a…
05-25 07:03:37	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x4f51fa…
05-25 07:03:32	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x724b4a…
05-25 07:03:28	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xb0137b…
05-25 07:03:25	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x535d42…