Secondary-Refusal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.03K

Unrealized P&L

-$7.97K

Hit rate

89.3%

Resolved

Trades

277

lifetime

Volume

$113.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$411

Open exposure

$2.48K

1 position

First seen

2026-02-11

last 10-02 12:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 76% +$4,893

Sports

26% 100% +$66

Other

7% 38% -$929

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+85,436	$10,449	3¢	$2.5K	-$7,972	09-16 09:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$29.7K	16,420	16,420	+0	No	+$66	06-03 15:37
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	2	$10.7K	5,886	5,886	+0	No	+$698	05-18 10:09
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	111	$10.4K	85,436	0	+85,436	open	—	09-16 09:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2	$4.9K	3,509	3,509	+0	No	+$912	05-10 10:40
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	3	$4.1K	2,117	2,117	+0	No	+$96	02-23 17:46
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	13	$3.4K	2,061	3,216	-1,155	$80k	+$3,425	04-08 23:26
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	1	$3.0K	3,565	0	+3,565	No	+$565	04-08 23:19
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	1	$3.0K	3,184	0	+3,184	No	+$184	05-02 13:35
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?	9	$2.9K	3,082	0	+3,082	No	+$201	04-09 15:34
will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	4	$2.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$303	07-28 13:08
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	3	$2.4K	2,579	0	+2,579	No	+$149	02-23 17:49
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$2.4K	1,591	1,591	+0	No	+$368	05-18 10:01
will xrp reach 1pt8 in march 2026	18	$2.3K	2,853	0	+2,853	No	+$533	03-02 16:47
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	4	$2.1K	3,065	0	+3,065	No	+$919	10-02 12:24
will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	2	$2.0K	2,349	0	+2,349	No	+$317	07-12 13:36
will xrp reach 1pt8 in february 2026	1	$2.0K	2,247	0	+2,247	No	+$247	02-11 12:26
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	1	$2.0K	2,327	0	+2,327	No	+$327	05-02 13:44
will ethereum reach 2300 february 9 15	1	$2.0K	2,083	0	+2,083	No	+$83	02-11 12:23
will ethereum reach 2100 in august 2026	2	$1.9K	2,709	0	+2,709	Yes	-$1,867	08-03 17:14
will ethereum reach 2600 in march 2026	3	$1.8K	2,149	0	+2,149	No	+$299	03-01 13:26
will bitcoin reach 76k april 13 19	2	$1.8K	2,184	0	+2,184	Yes	-$1,830	04-13 11:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	2	$1.7K	3,541	3,541	+0	No	+$697	06-07 16:54
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	10	$1.7K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$320	03-01 22:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$1.5K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	-$454	05-10 10:41
will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	3	$1.5K	2,841	0	+2,841	Yes	-$1,520	08-02 06:35
will bitcoin reach 85k in september 2026	1	$1.3K	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	-$1,320	09-03 08:20
will ethereum reach 2200 february 16 22	1	$1.2K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$255	02-16 11:26
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April?	1	$1000	1,214	0	+1,214	No	+$214	04-08 23:14
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$1000	4,262	0	+4,262	No	-$1,000	07-28 13:19
will ethereum reach 2800 in february 2026	3	$980	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$20	02-19 11:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-02 12:24:59	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	BUY	304	70¢	$213	0xdea26d…
10-02 11:48:12	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$21	0x74b5f8…
10-02 10:40:33	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x1e6ecb…
10-02 10:36:11	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	BUY	2,698	70¢	$1,889	0xbc609d…
09-16 09:12:31	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	5¢	$11	0xd4d3e5…
09-08 18:22:04	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,777	5¢	$89	0xbb65bc…
09-03 08:21:52	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,942	5¢	$247	0x903a0d…
09-03 08:20:01	will bitcoin reach 85k in september 2026	No	BUY	2,000	66¢	$1,320	0x1fee90…
08-03 17:14:44	will ethereum reach 2100 in august 2026	No	BUY	2,589	69¢	$1,786	0xaa2f29…
08-03 17:13:51	will ethereum reach 2100 in august 2026	No	BUY	120	68¢	$82	0xb62bb4…
08-02 06:35:59	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	998	52¢	$519	0x0adb70…
08-01 15:48:20	will bitcoin reach 75k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$26	0xae5ce4…
08-01 14:36:21	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf81926…
08-01 13:30:35	will bitcoin reach 75k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$26	0x63c2ed…
08-01 13:20:08	will bitcoin reach 75k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$16	0x146160…
08-01 13:16:11	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	1,841	54¢	$1,000	0xd9d8f3…
07-28 13:19:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,262	23¢	$1,000	0xd79793…
07-28 13:09:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50,000	1¢	$300	0x2e3032…
07-28 13:08:08	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	SELL	1,500	98¢	$1,473	0x872c2b…
07-14 16:45:10	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,293	5¢	$115	0xf4a303…
07-14 02:37:04	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xe9a21d…
07-13 20:59:23	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xf40256…
07-13 18:57:31	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0xe68e68…
07-13 18:38:47	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,313	5¢	$116	0x3f0a6f…
07-13 12:13:58	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	5¢	$1	0xf04c9f…
07-13 12:08:35	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x5f2072…
07-13 12:08:34	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,839	5¢	$92	0x1b508a…
07-13 10:42:37	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x48a8dd…
07-13 09:04:14	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1,000	61¢	$610	0xb7889e…
07-13 09:01:43	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,000	5¢	$500	0x7cae59…
07-12 15:30:47	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,727	6¢	$265	0xb35912…
07-12 13:36:26	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	1,200	86¢	$1,032	0x6b924b…
07-12 12:56:47	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xf3fc84…
07-12 11:36:29	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	1,297	78¢	$1,011	0x4fd06a…
07-12 11:15:56	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	133	78¢	$104	0xca5ec8…
07-12 10:47:20	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	6¢	$15	0xcc4c25…
07-12 10:43:50	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,452	6¢	$200	0x504fc7…
07-12 10:38:10	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	70	78¢	$55	0x6f1f00…
07-12 10:27:05	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	1,149	87¢	$1,000	0x4e8d2b…
06-28 09:41:07	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x743d66…
06-28 09:40:49	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xde4895…
06-28 09:40:29	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x1ab71d…
06-28 09:37:52	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Japan	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x55b5e7…
06-07 16:54:39	will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	3,541	34¢	$1,197	0x38ba36…
06-03 15:54:24	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,068	12¢	$500	0xca1d19…
06-03 15:52:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	3,852	6¢	$250	0xcd9adc…
06-03 15:52:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	1,378	36¢	$500	0x7f23b0…
06-03 15:51:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	3,541	14¢	$500	0x7fdf80…
06-03 15:37:57	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	16,420	90¢	$14,860	0x76e3a7…
06-03 15:35:06	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25,415	0¢	$75	0x44339b…
05-31 09:40:46	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	16,420	90¢	$14,794	0x67cc75…
05-18 15:54:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	182	2¢	$4	0x5cd01b…
05-18 15:46:57	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	15¢	$750	0xa98381…
05-18 14:01:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	120	2¢	$3	0x5767f0…
05-18 13:02:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x7ef12e…
05-18 12:56:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0x9c5c54…
05-18 12:55:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	29	2¢	$1	0x750035…
05-18 12:49:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xb23fa0…
05-18 12:46:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa0bffa…
05-18 12:33:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb6bd4f…
05-18 12:16:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x1ef027…
05-18 12:13:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xff2962…
05-18 12:08:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x2365bc…
05-18 12:01:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x3a02d9…
05-18 11:56:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	47	2¢	$1	0x02c57a…
05-18 11:43:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	117	2¢	$3	0x3ee16d…
05-18 11:23:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x10680b…
05-18 11:05:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x8c6f01…
05-18 10:11:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	800	2¢	$19	0xf2522a…
05-18 10:10:06	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	415	1¢	$2	0xade7bf…
05-18 10:09:23	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	5,886	97¢	$5,698	0xabbb63…
05-18 10:04:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$11	0x9ecd57…
05-18 10:04:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	299	5¢	$16	0x5f05ba…
05-18 10:03:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	660	5¢	$34	0xf1b764…
05-18 10:01:16	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	1,591	86¢	$1,368	0x36e518…
05-17 20:44:19	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,306	16¢	$209	0xeab2fa…
05-17 20:29:37	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0xca2a07…
05-17 18:52:07	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x2879c2…
05-17 18:11:50	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x79dea7…
05-17 17:37:37	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x262bc4…
05-17 09:18:45	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x12e17a…
05-17 09:17:56	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x0733e3…
05-17 08:15:47	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x57990f…
05-17 06:20:54	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0xdf9afd…
05-17 05:20:59	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,730	16¢	$1,077	0xb16472…
05-17 01:42:39	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0x6a23d9…
05-16 20:54:17	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xb6ea87…
05-16 13:57:43	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	16¢	$6	0xe44c47…
05-16 13:50:59	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x3c218f…
05-16 11:31:41	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	578	16¢	$92	0xe03c2d…
05-16 11:26:45	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	595	16¢	$95	0xe3ef72…
05-16 07:50:46	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0x2d5f00…
05-16 02:59:27	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	16¢	$38	0xfa8d63…
05-15 18:51:02	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x87a27b…
05-15 17:51:39	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	16¢	$3	0xf20d1c…
05-15 14:07:27	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xd3008d…
05-15 11:21:41	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	16¢	$38	0x066361…
05-15 10:39:19	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x91a518…
05-15 08:13:58	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xac6c06…
05-15 07:16:38	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x99cef4…