Gaseous-Kettledrum — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

—

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

—

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

156 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$96

$1.59K lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$96

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 11-07 07:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

52% 98% +$8

Politics

33% 80% +$47

Crypto

9% 100% +$0

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Sports

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes		+98	$96	98¢	$96	+$1	11-07 07:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	5	$139	72	72	+0	No	+$1	09-01 03:51
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	3	$139	94	47	+47	No	+$0	09-14 18:56
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	1	$96	98	0	+98	open	—	11-07 07:26
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	1	$95	98	0	+98	Yes	+$3	11-04 02:42
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$91	93	0	+93	Yes	+$2	10-29 17:37
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	2	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	08-13 01:12
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$50	26	26	+0	No	+$1	10-01 01:34
will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	09-29 03:04
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	1	$49	49	0	+49	Yes	+$0	10-05 00:07
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	1	$48	48	0	+48	Yes	+$0	09-22 15:15
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$47	47	0	+47	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$47	47	0	+47	No	+$0	09-07 16:41
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	1	$47	47	0	+47	Yes	+$0	09-04 07:27
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	2	$46	24	24	+0	No	+$1	10-01 06:02
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	08-05 10:09
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$39	39	0	+39	No	+$0	06-26 18:39
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$35	36	0	+36	No	+$1	08-09 14:47
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-14 17:07
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-13 14:05
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	2	$33	16	16	+0	No	+$0	09-29 08:27
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$26	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	06-29 03:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	07-29 23:41
will hyperliquid reach 48 in march	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	03-31 08:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	05-31 10:06
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	02-25 12:17
will solana dip to 50 in february 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	02-28 02:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	2	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$0	09-30 01:48
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$12	53	0	+53	No	+$41	10-17 13:43
will openai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	01-24 14:48
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	3	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-17 09:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 07:26:01	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	98	98¢	$96	0xf7bf61…
11-04 02:42:43	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	97¢	$95	0x5ca4d9…
10-29 17:37:05	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	93	98¢	$91	0xc4c47e…
10-24 00:04:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	62	0¢	$0	0x7929de…
10-24 00:04:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xee0070…
10-24 00:04:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	318	0¢	$0	0xae9738…
10-17 13:43:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	53	23¢	$12	0xec58b9…
10-14 22:26:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xbf5fd9…
10-08 17:14:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x3c99e4…
10-05 00:07:26	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0xce1e3d…
10-01 06:02:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x8fb356…
10-01 01:34:27	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xde1246…
09-30 03:50:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0x1132df…
09-30 01:48:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc3713a…
09-29 08:27:41	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x12328b…
09-29 03:52:27	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x0a362d…
09-29 03:04:02	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x542b52…
09-28 13:09:08	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xf9d577…
09-27 12:25:47	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xeaa1d6…
09-27 05:15:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x4cb0a2…
09-22 15:15:34	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0xee1522…
09-16 00:03:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x801055…
09-14 18:56:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x305b01…
09-13 18:31:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0xc65f89…
09-10 14:11:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x0937cf…
09-07 16:41:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x95b890…
09-07 15:55:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x649b37…
09-04 07:27:25	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0xb5d4eb…
09-01 03:51:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x35d1c4…
08-28 07:14:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0xba5096…
08-26 16:34:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	96¢	$30	0x524d69…
08-26 16:03:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$4	0x973d42…
08-25 08:45:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	96¢	$34	0x97d464…
08-23 23:58:39	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb3a33a…
08-19 16:09:22	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$5	0xd671df…
08-19 07:21:24	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xd0d881…
08-19 07:21:24	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	0¢	$0	0x3eaa97…
08-19 07:19:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xdcb1b6…
08-19 07:11:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xd7b812…
08-19 07:11:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x56c57a…
08-19 07:08:31	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x8e3402…
08-18 09:28:39	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3f1cf1…
08-16 11:08:34	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3c0535…
08-15 14:19:54	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x990f4d…
08-14 17:07:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x52551d…
08-13 14:05:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x6777b2…
08-13 01:12:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x57cb4d…
08-12 14:50:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xcc9508…
08-12 13:45:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xddf470…
08-12 13:45:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xb76506…
08-12 13:45:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x7fbc14…
08-12 13:45:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0x5a24b2…
08-12 13:45:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x36771f…
08-12 13:45:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x1c7c71…
08-12 13:45:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x041b3e…
08-12 11:37:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xec70f0…
08-11 19:00:21	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x43d98e…
08-09 14:47:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x1d4a60…
08-06 21:43:29	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x142e7f…
08-06 09:40:06	will wti reach 130 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd9a6a1…
08-06 02:41:35	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa7d284…
08-05 10:09:42	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x3eb679…
07-29 23:41:20	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd67881…
07-29 21:52:51	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9b9775…
07-29 10:27:50	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x55fc93…
07-29 06:12:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x830bdc…
07-27 17:43:13	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x311d45…
07-27 16:10:19	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x51654d…
07-27 14:36:49	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc730fe…
07-27 13:04:46	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xea9e3d…
07-26 22:08:49	will xauusd dip to 3300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1fdbeb…
07-25 15:29:40	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2fcf9e…
07-20 14:51:13	will ethereum dip to 1200 in july 2026 853	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd308c6…
07-17 16:12:51	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbd5619…
06-29 15:17:56	will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6f8158…
06-29 04:30:13	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x04df62…
06-29 03:51:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x32cc11…
06-28 16:04:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xd45c13…
06-27 23:20:44	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xefb847…
06-26 18:39:07	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x2e17d7…
05-31 10:06:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xbfc945…
05-17 09:32:09	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc4063c…
05-13 23:44:56	Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x21fd59…
05-12 04:22:38	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x541002…
05-11 17:52:34	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf6e8c7…
05-09 10:41:50	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2bd30a…
05-09 07:44:30	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd427f2…
05-08 12:51:34	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc12bea…
05-08 12:11:47	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x18840a…
05-08 01:00:06	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x57392f…
05-07 14:44:52	Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa8e59c…
05-07 12:05:28	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x6f430c…
05-07 10:24:31	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7e2497…
05-06 15:06:15	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb446f5…
05-05 13:29:12	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xcd3460…
05-05 08:19:20	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd270f3…
05-05 04:05:16	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdb9323…
04-28 20:40:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0728c7…
04-24 08:38:46	Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x785395…
04-22 10:40:58	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xdecc6e…