Untrue-Causal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.9%

Resolved

Trades

725

lifetime

Volume

$13.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-06 06:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 0% $-39

Other

6% — —

Sports

5% 33% +$5

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1772406000	2	$363	270	266	+4	open	—	03-01 23:06
btc updown 5m 1772406900	3	$344	225	222	+3	open	—	03-01 23:20
btc updown 5m 1772394000	2	$336	242	238	+4	open	—	03-01 19:45
btc updown 5m 1785929700	5	$336	491	491	+0	open	—	08-05 11:37
btc updown 5m 1772393100	4	$298	258	255	+3	open	—	03-01 19:30
btc updown 5m 1772404200	4	$288	925	109	+816	open	—	03-01 22:35
btc updown 5m 1772404500	3	$272	168	166	+2	open	—	03-01 22:40
btc updown 5m 1772403600	4	$260	203	200	+2	open	—	03-01 22:25
btc updown 5m 1772405100	2	$226	150	148	+2	open	—	03-01 22:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	9	$225	204	204	+0	open	—	05-30 03:10
btc updown 5m 1772418300	3	$186	138	136	+2	open	—	03-02 02:30
btc updown 5m 1776317400	2	$180	111	109	+2	open	—	04-16 05:34
btc updown 5m 1776317100	5	$163	146	121	+25	open	—	04-16 05:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	8	$147	177	125	+52	open	—	04-30 21:59
btc updown 5m 1775145300	5	$136	106	87	+19	open	—	04-02 15:59
btc updown 5m 1772169600	4	$131	232	75	+157	open	—	02-27 05:25
btc updown 5m 1772430000	5	$128	343	40	+303	open	—	03-02 05:44
cs2 m80 voc 2026 02 24	5	$127	329	200	+128	open	—	02-25 04:20
btc updown 5m 1772407200	2	$120	328	0	+328	open	—	03-01 23:21
btc updown 5m 1776316500	6	$110	155	70	+85	open	—	04-16 05:19
btc updown 5m 1772394600	2	$105	77	76	+1	open	—	03-01 19:55
btc updown 5m 1772429700	4	$101	81	80	+1	open	—	03-02 05:40
btc updown 5m 1772394300	1	$100	278	0	+278	open	—	03-01 19:46
btc updown 5m 1772395200	1	$100	196	0	+196	open	—	03-01 20:00
btc updown 5m 1772403300	3	$100	290	0	+290	open	—	03-01 22:16
btc updown 5m 1775145600	5	$98	106	83	+23	open	—	04-02 16:04
btc updown 5m 1772166300	2	$94	64	63	+1	open	—	02-27 04:30
btc updown 5m 1776317700	2	$92	65	63	+3	open	—	04-16 05:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	2	$92	68	68	+0	open	—	05-30 03:50
btc updown 5m 1772945400	3	$90	133	57	+76	open	—	03-08 04:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-06 06:21:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x0ab8b4…
08-05 11:44:35	btc updown 5m 1785930000	Up	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0x565618…
08-05 11:39:50	btc updown 5m 1785930000	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x1cb829…
08-05 11:39:48	btc updown 5m 1785930000	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xf4e2a5…
08-05 11:38:39	lol jdg lgd 2026 08 05	LGD Gaming	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0xc67db5…
08-05 11:37:20	btc updown 5m 1785929700	Up	SELL	134	40¢	$53	0xe26e1b…
08-05 11:37:06	btc updown 5m 1785929700	Up	BUY	65	38¢	$25	0x4b577b…
08-05 11:37:02	btc updown 5m 1785929700	Up	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x5d9c36…
08-05 11:36:48	btc updown 5m 1785929700	Up	SELL	357	37¢	$132	0x815a0b…
08-05 11:35:51	btc updown 5m 1785929700	Up	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0xa8b8f1…
08-05 11:33:17	btc updown 5m 1785929400	Down	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0xe51c3c…
06-15 01:27:46	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	42	50¢	$21	0xb7fdc6…
06-15 01:26:28	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x92cf7e…
06-09 23:03:37	btc updown 5m 1781046000	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xf54ce4…
06-09 22:50:24	btc updown 5m 1781045400	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x4b84b5…
06-09 22:47:27	btc updown 5m 1781045100	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xf8b7b4…
06-09 02:02:12	btc updown 5m 1780970400	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x67f225…
06-09 01:55:22	btc updown 5m 1780970100	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xcf7231…
06-09 01:51:06	btc updown 5m 1780969800	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x3764bc…
06-09 01:50:48	btc updown 5m 1780969800	Up	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x0aead2…
06-09 01:50:34	btc updown 5m 1780969800	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6f65f4…
05-30 21:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xf6ac9d…
05-30 21:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xef507c…
05-30 21:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x5d8150…
05-30 21:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xa6d124…
05-30 21:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x4c15cd…
05-30 21:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xa71079…
05-30 21:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x8ea9b8…
05-30 21:26:07	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x8de5e9…
05-30 21:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	61	33¢	$20	0xe68d85…
05-30 21:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xa54d60…
05-30 21:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	145	17¢	$25	0x76b6a3…
05-30 20:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xe2d764…
05-30 05:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x5c1baa…
05-30 04:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x510e58…
05-30 03:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x4436ce…
05-30 03:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	SELL	31	95¢	$30	0xce0c31…
05-30 03:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xc53f72…
05-30 03:50:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	SELL	68	99¢	$67	0x3a6b0d…
05-30 03:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x866b4e…
05-30 03:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0x53e659…
05-30 03:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xb8cb4c…
05-30 03:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	105	24¢	$25	0xc4db51…
05-30 03:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x997b67…
05-30 03:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x1c23a1…
05-30 03:26:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x6d818f…
05-30 03:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xbd331c…
05-30 03:11:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf92736…
05-30 03:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	68	99¢	$67	0xda5854…
05-30 03:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x645601…
05-30 03:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x349cfb…
05-30 03:08:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	14	46¢	$7	0xa4d822…
05-30 03:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	50	69¢	$34	0x03eccb…
05-30 03:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x78c2a2…
05-30 03:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xdae5ac…
05-30 03:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	71	44¢	$31	0xc0f28e…
05-30 03:06:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0xdaba5c…
05-30 03:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0xc84d12…
05-30 02:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xc01ce5…
05-30 02:53:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	44	50¢	$22	0x15212b…
05-30 02:53:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xc06737…
05-30 02:15:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0xc5149f…
05-30 02:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x104295…
05-30 02:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	13	86¢	$12	0xdebf0f…
05-30 02:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x05b4cf…
05-30 02:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x004e2c…
05-30 01:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x464eb1…
05-30 00:45:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x3dc6f1…
05-30 00:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	37	68¢	$25	0x38e432…
05-30 00:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	18	32¢	$6	0x8bd653…
05-30 00:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x5bd66f…
05-30 00:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	17	34¢	$6	0x2b7c29…
05-30 00:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x771c65…
05-30 00:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xda1206…
05-25 20:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x1b8261…
05-25 20:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x95aeb4…
05-25 20:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x382c40…
05-25 20:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x9dba81…
05-25 20:17:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xb30b42…
05-25 20:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x84d732…
05-25 19:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xb6edc2…
05-25 19:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa94ee6…
05-25 19:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x8572b0…
05-25 19:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xc09d83…
05-25 19:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x2b0a26…
05-25 19:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x142896…
05-25 19:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x83b84d…
05-25 18:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x30bdae…
05-25 18:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x086d47…
05-25 18:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	65	8¢	$5	0x5245e5…
05-25 18:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xcf057c…
05-25 18:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	47	97¢	$46	0x3ebb60…
05-21 02:29:28	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	23	17¢	$4	0x9d4b89…
05-10 05:15:51	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xe5879d…
05-10 00:39:35	UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)	Ozzy Diaz	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x655358…
05-10 00:10:39	UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)	William Gomis	BUY	415	0¢	$0	0xed610f…
05-10 00:10:39	UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)	William Gomis	BUY	153	0¢	$0	0xa7460e…
05-10 00:10:39	UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)	William Gomis	BUY	432	0¢	$0	0x01d8eb…
05-09 22:25:08	UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)	Jeremy Stephens	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0x436df9…
05-09 21:19:37	UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	Djorden Santos	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xc044ec…