Untrue-Causal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.22K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.8%

Resolved

371

Trades

742

lifetime

Volume

$13.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-06 06:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 34% -$810

Other

6% 11% -$322

Sports

5% 24% -$83

Politics

0% 0% -$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-06).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 23:00 UTC	2	$363	270	266	+4	Up	+$167	03-01 23:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 23:15 UTC	3	$344	225	222	+3	Up	+$99	03-01 23:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 19:40 UTC	2	$336	242	238	+4	Down	+$140	03-01 19:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:35 UTC	5	$336	491	491	+0	Down	+$36	08-05 11:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 19:25 UTC	4	$298	258	255	+3	Down	+$138	03-01 19:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 22:30 UTC	4	$288	925	109	+816	Down	-$70	03-01 22:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 22:35 UTC	3	$272	168	166	+2	Up	+$58	03-01 22:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 22:20 UTC	4	$260	203	200	+2	Up	+$102	03-01 22:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 22:45 UTC	2	$226	150	148	+2	Down	+$69	03-01 22:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	9	$225	204	204	+0	Down	+$55	05-30 03:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 02:25 UTC	3	$186	138	136	+2	Down	+$84	03-02 02:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 05:30 UTC	2	$180	111	109	+2	Up	+$25	04-16 05:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 05:25 UTC	5	$163	146	121	+25	Up	+$38	04-16 05:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	8	$147	177	125	+52	Down	-$23	04-30 21:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 15:55 UTC	5	$136	106	87	+19	Up	+$5	04-02 15:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 05:20 UTC	4	$131	232	75	+157	Down	+$18	02-27 05:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 05:40 UTC	5	$128	343	40	+303	Up	-$48	03-02 05:44
cs2 m80 voc 2026 02 24	5	$127	329	200	+128	M80	-$3	02-25 04:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 23:20 UTC	2	$120	328	0	+328	Down	-$120	03-01 23:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 05:15 UTC	6	$110	155	70	+85	Up	+$8	04-16 05:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 19:50 UTC	2	$105	77	76	+1	Up	+$46	03-01 19:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 05:35 UTC	4	$101	81	80	+1	Down	+$51	03-02 05:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	1	$100	196	0	+196	Down	-$100	03-01 20:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 19:45 UTC	1	$100	278	0	+278	Up	-$100	03-01 19:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 22:15 UTC	3	$100	290	0	+290	Up	-$100	03-01 22:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 16:00 UTC	5	$98	106	83	+23	Down	+$28	04-02 16:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 04:25 UTC	2	$94	64	63	+1	Down	+$31	02-27 04:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 05:35 UTC	2	$92	65	63	+3	Up	+$35	04-16 05:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	2	$92	68	68	+0	Up	+$42	05-30 03:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 04:50 UTC	3	$90	133	57	+76	Down	+$14	03-08 04:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-06 06:21:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x0ab8b4…
08-05 11:46:36	Will ZHFK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win on 2026-08-05?	Yes	BUY	52	33¢	$17	0x83a19b…
08-05 11:44:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0x565618…
08-05 11:39:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x1cb829…
08-05 11:39:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xf4e2a5…
08-05 11:38:39	lol jdg lgd 2026 08 05	LGD Gaming	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0xc67db5…
08-05 11:37:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:35 UTC	Up	SELL	134	40¢	$53	0xe26e1b…
08-05 11:37:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	65	38¢	$25	0x4b577b…
08-05 11:37:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x5d9c36…
08-05 11:36:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:35 UTC	Up	SELL	357	37¢	$132	0x815a0b…
08-05 11:35:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0xa8b8f1…
08-05 11:33:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0xe51c3c…
06-15 04:25:00	UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Ciryl Gane	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x7028fc…
06-15 01:27:46	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	42	50¢	$21	0xb7fdc6…
06-15 01:26:28	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x92cf7e…
06-09 23:03:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xf54ce4…
06-09 22:50:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x4b84b5…
06-09 22:47:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xf8b7b4…
06-09 02:02:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x67f225…
06-09 01:55:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 01:55 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xcf7231…
06-09 01:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xd37ca3…
06-09 01:53:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0xcb0713…
06-09 01:51:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 01:50 UTC	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x3764bc…
06-09 01:50:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 01:50 UTC	Up	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x0aead2…
06-09 01:50:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 01:50 UTC	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6f65f4…
05-30 21:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xf6ac9d…
05-30 21:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xef507c…
05-30 21:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x5d8150…
05-30 21:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xa6d124…
05-30 21:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x4c15cd…
05-30 21:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xa71079…
05-30 21:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x8ea9b8…
05-30 21:26:07	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x8de5e9…
05-30 21:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	61	33¢	$20	0xe68d85…
05-30 21:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xa54d60…
05-30 21:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	145	17¢	$25	0x76b6a3…
05-30 20:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xe2d764…
05-30 05:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x5c1baa…
05-30 04:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x510e58…
05-30 03:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x4436ce…
05-30 03:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	SELL	31	95¢	$30	0xce0c31…
05-30 03:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xc53f72…
05-30 03:50:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	SELL	68	99¢	$67	0x3a6b0d…
05-30 03:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x866b4e…
05-30 03:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0x53e659…
05-30 03:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xb8cb4c…
05-30 03:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	105	24¢	$25	0xc4db51…
05-30 03:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x997b67…
05-30 03:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x1c23a1…
05-30 03:26:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x6d818f…
05-30 03:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xbd331c…
05-30 03:11:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf92736…
05-30 03:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	68	99¢	$67	0xda5854…
05-30 03:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x645601…
05-30 03:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x349cfb…
05-30 03:08:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	14	46¢	$7	0xa4d822…
05-30 03:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	50	69¢	$34	0x03eccb…
05-30 03:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x78c2a2…
05-30 03:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xdae5ac…
05-30 03:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	71	44¢	$31	0xc0f28e…
05-30 03:06:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0xdaba5c…
05-30 03:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0xc84d12…
05-30 02:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xc01ce5…
05-30 02:53:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	44	50¢	$22	0x15212b…
05-30 02:53:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xc06737…
05-30 02:15:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0xc5149f…
05-30 02:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x104295…
05-30 02:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	13	86¢	$12	0xdebf0f…
05-30 02:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x05b4cf…
05-30 02:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x004e2c…
05-30 01:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x464eb1…
05-30 00:45:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x3dc6f1…
05-30 00:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	37	68¢	$25	0x38e432…
05-30 00:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	18	32¢	$6	0x8bd653…
05-30 00:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x5bd66f…
05-30 00:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	17	34¢	$6	0x2b7c29…
05-30 00:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x771c65…
05-30 00:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xda1206…
05-30 00:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	SELL	49	77¢	$38	0xc6a588…
05-30 00:36:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xef04a8…
05-30 00:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	106	24¢	$25	0x84717a…
05-25 20:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x1b8261…
05-25 20:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x95aeb4…
05-25 20:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x382c40…
05-25 20:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x9dba81…
05-25 20:17:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xb30b42…
05-25 20:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x84d732…
05-25 19:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xb6edc2…
05-25 19:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa94ee6…
05-25 19:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x8572b0…
05-25 19:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xc09d83…
05-25 19:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x2b0a26…
05-25 19:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x142896…
05-25 19:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x83b84d…
05-25 19:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x9f319f…
05-25 18:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x30bdae…
05-25 18:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x086d47…
05-25 18:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	65	8¢	$5	0x5245e5…
05-25 18:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xcf057c…
05-25 18:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	47	97¢	$46	0x3ebb60…