Oily-Cheek — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$72

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

52.7%

Resolved

898

Trades

3,714

lifetime

Volume

$15.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$85

10 positions

First seen

2026-04-11

last 05-16 12:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Other

67% 36% -$65

Politics

17% 62% +$6

Tech

7% 43% +$23

Crypto

7% 30% -$24

Sports

2% 42% -$1

Pop-Culture

1% 31% -$12

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-16).

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	-41	-$9	60¢	$-24	-$15	05-01 14:00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-19	-$12	85¢	$-16	-$4	05-11 11:47
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	-17	-$9	80¢	$-13	-$4	04-28 21:41
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	-15	-$19	70¢	$-10	+$9	05-11 22:34
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	No	-9	-$8	90¢	$-8	$0	04-29 19:11
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	No	-10	-$7	78¢	$-8	-$1	05-02 18:00
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Yes	-44	-$14	8¢	$-4	+$10	05-11 11:25
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	-16	-$6	11¢	$-2	+$4	05-11 20:29
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?	Yes	-11	-$8	2¢	$-0	+$8	05-01 12:01
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	+$0	04-30 19:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	31	$197	255	273	-18	No	+$34	05-10 05:35
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	16	$111	115	115	-0	Yes	-$1	04-24 00:44
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	13	$97	131	131	+0	Yes	-$3	04-13 10:01
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	13	$90	146	146	+0	open	—	05-02 23:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	14	$89	165	165	+0	No	+$3	05-07 07:30
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	20	$87	105	105	+0	No	-$1	05-04 01:24
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	25	$86	81	81	+0	No	+$3	05-10 18:19
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	11	$81	119	119	+0	Yes	-$1	05-01 03:19
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	11	$80	68	68	+0	No	+$2	05-04 18:36
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	12	$79	112	112	+0	No	+$10	05-03 18:32
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	11	$79	95	95	+0	No	+$15	05-06 11:36
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	11	$79	82	82	+0	No	+$1	04-19 09:55
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of April 27 2026?	2	$77	133	133	+0	No	+$69	04-29 20:10
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	11	$73	81	81	+0	No	-$4	05-07 02:34
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?	12	$69	83	83	+0	No	+$34	04-27 20:11
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	10	$66	86	86	+0	No	-$1	04-30 06:15
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	8	$63	112	112	+0	Yes	+$5	04-16 05:07
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	11	$63	115	115	+0	No	+$2	05-01 04:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$62	79	79	+0	No	-$4	04-17 13:03
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 30?	3	$62	73	73	+0	Down	+$46	04-29 20:42
Will Google reach $375 in April?	13	$61	85	85	+0	Yes	+$14	04-30 07:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	8	$61	94	94	-0	No	+$1	05-11 11:25
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	10	$60	128	128	+0	No	+$2	05-01 21:31
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	11	$59	39	39	+0	Yes	+$1	04-16 17:19
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?	8	$58	76	76	+0	open	—	04-30 17:23
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	9	$55	78	77	+0	Yes	+$1	05-11 11:25
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	8	$54	81	81	+0	open	—	05-11 11:25
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?	8	$53	59	59	+0	No	+$1	04-30 06:33
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?	14	$53	57	57	+0	Yes	-$3	04-30 11:59
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	6	$52	49	49	+0	Yes	-$2	05-03 10:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 12:11:14	Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	SELL	28	0¢	$0	0x7cfbd5…
05-16 12:11:14	Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	33	0¢	$0	0x6695b4…
05-16 12:11:12	Will MrBeast hit 123 billion views by May 31?	No	SELL	63	0¢	$0	0x80a034…
05-16 12:11:12	Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	6¢	$1	0x3b209a…
05-16 12:11:10	Relay FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x569acf…
05-16 12:11:10	Will Nikki Haley announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	67	3¢	$2	0x323db3…
05-16 12:11:09	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.4%?	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x801375…
05-16 12:11:09	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0x49324f…
05-16 12:11:07	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?	No	SELL	7	63¢	$4	0xbc5daf…
05-16 12:11:07	Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0xab27eb…
05-16 12:11:05	Ledger IPO closing market cap above $4B?	No	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0x51e105…
05-16 12:11:05	Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x255266…
05-16 12:11:03	Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 5?	No	SELL	9	83¢	$7	0x65b972…
05-16 12:11:03	Perena FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	32	33¢	$11	0x5e091e…
05-15 20:18:13	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?	No	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xd0fdd4…
05-15 19:46:25	Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0xaa0d96…
05-15 19:12:37	Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0x6e286c…
05-15 18:53:39	Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in May?	Yes	SELL	14	20¢	$3	0x99c8cb…
05-15 10:29:04	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x7c706a…
05-15 08:26:19	Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xc1b8ca…
05-15 07:56:32	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0xf55908…
05-14 23:46:30	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0x01c007…
05-14 21:14:20	Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x43a3ee…
05-14 14:01:06	Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xb22c01…
05-14 12:48:20	Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	22¢	$3	0x7a6a18…
05-14 12:27:34	Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	22¢	$9	0x9cade6…
05-14 10:03:06	Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	11¢	$0	0xf3f6cb…
05-14 05:38:56	Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x8023f1…
05-13 22:58:13	Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0x38daea…
05-13 20:08:16	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x9a78b1…
05-13 14:10:16	Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x6d0b67…
05-13 09:22:38	Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xaa4e98…
05-13 04:27:45	Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	0¢	$0	0x38b30b…
05-12 18:02:30	Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x9f207e…
05-12 17:51:46	Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	22¢	$3	0x83d81c…
05-12 16:47:56	Perena FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x4e497c…
05-12 15:05:14	Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 0.3%?	Yes	SELL	68	1¢	$0	0xe89344…
05-12 14:32:06	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	7¢	$2	0xa42bdd…
05-12 11:22:43	Spread: IK Start (-1.5)	Viking FK	SELL	7	91¢	$7	0x1d5eff…
05-12 11:20:04	Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0xcd4914…
05-12 09:10:13	Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5)	Gwangju FC	SELL	88	3¢	$3	0x5df3f9…
05-12 07:31:33	Spread: Gwangju FC (-2.5)	Gwangju FC	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x84a025…
05-11 22:34:21	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	30¢	$4	0xcbbe9a…
05-11 22:25:36	Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 0.3%?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x9fef9f…
05-11 22:25:36	Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	138	0¢	$0	0x4a3542…
05-11 22:25:34	Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xb460fa…
05-11 20:41:22	Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x51cbab…
05-11 20:29:57	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0x81ac5c…
05-11 20:16:17	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x1025a4…
05-11 19:33:10	Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0xe34802…
05-11 18:45:43	Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x4876fa…
05-11 16:44:53	OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?	No	SELL	32	22¢	$7	0x0232d1…
05-11 15:12:46	Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x087a03…
05-11 15:02:18	Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	17	53¢	$9	0x8e3627…
05-11 14:37:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0xf473fd…
05-11 14:03:46	Will Lithuania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x7679bf…
05-11 14:00:00	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x4502f2…
05-11 13:59:58	Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x419a05…
05-11 13:59:58	Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x076b1e…
05-11 13:40:13	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	No	SELL	16	80¢	$13	0x3733ed…
05-11 13:29:05	Will MrBeast hit 123 billion views by May 31?	No	SELL	53	7¢	$4	0xf3ca8d…
05-11 13:07:37	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	54¢	$8	0x2e3dff…
05-11 12:32:40	Spread: IK Start (-1.5)	Viking FK	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0xb40e29…
05-11 12:24:08	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	SELL	0	58¢	$0	0xa2bf55…
05-11 12:11:28	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	SELL	11	59¢	$6	0xeb619c…
05-11 12:03:57	UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)	Alice Ardelean	SELL	9	61¢	$5	0x4ceacd…
05-11 11:59:18	Printr FDV above $80M one day after launch?	No	SELL	16	62¢	$10	0x954380…
05-11 11:59:18	Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x29a6f0…
05-11 11:59:15	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x35172a…
05-11 11:59:04	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?	Yes	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x956750…
05-11 11:47:38	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	63¢	$12	0x5475e6…
05-11 11:33:26	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x5435c4…
05-11 11:28:16	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	38¢	$10	0x22e58a…
05-11 11:27:48	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	21	20¢	$4	0x03f98f…
05-11 11:27:47	Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xc44190…
05-11 11:27:47	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	26	27¢	$7	0xb73ddd…
05-11 11:27:43	Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x740c20…
05-11 11:27:43	Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x151ca4…
05-11 11:25:56	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x4e7458…
05-11 11:25:39	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xe904ed…
05-11 11:25:39	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	35	10¢	$4	0xd2471b…
05-11 11:25:39	Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31?	Yes	SELL	18	33¢	$6	0xb35886…
05-11 11:25:39	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x73d850…
05-11 11:25:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	18	48¢	$9	0x323a50…
05-11 11:25:39	Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x195097…
05-11 11:25:39	Will DualShot Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?	Yes	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0x173647…
05-11 11:25:37	Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	66	9¢	$6	0xa25006…
05-11 11:25:37	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	26	22¢	$6	0x8bd89c…
05-11 11:25:37	Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	15¢	$3	0x6e44c1…
05-11 11:25:37	U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	26¢	$4	0x5ce4b7…
05-11 11:25:37	Will David Seymour be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	SELL	33	0¢	$0	0x449806…
05-11 11:25:37	Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	22	60¢	$13	0x419db9…
05-11 11:25:35	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xb80be6…
05-11 11:25:34	Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5	No	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0x80903a…
05-11 11:25:34	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x5c6bd5…
05-11 11:25:34	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x10cb73…
05-11 11:25:32	Will there be exactly 0 major space weather events this week?	No	SELL	4	36¢	$2	0xd3ee9b…
05-11 11:23:28	Epic Games IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	35	17¢	$6	0xfc0759…
05-11 11:10:59	Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5	No	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x2dd515…
05-11 10:39:09	Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	6	72¢	$5	0xb1d013…