Secret-Editorial — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$142

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

72.2%

Resolved

220

Trades

852

lifetime

Volume

$13.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$12

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 10-08 16:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Politics

68% 59% +$266

Other

22% 40% -$153

Crypto

10% 51% +$30

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 163 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No		+150	$32	8¢	$12	-$20	10-08 16:17
will jptdpt vance attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221264	No		+0	-$23	70¢	$0	+$23	08-20 12:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	29	$723	2,106	2,106	+0	open	—	09-11 18:52
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	18	$490	514	514	+0	No	+$55	08-30 14:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	7	$254	372	372	+0	Yes	+$40	09-01 16:16
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	6	$251	1,353	1,353	+0	Yes	+$46	06-18 23:21
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?	6	$250	176	176	+0	No	+$50	09-15 06:01
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	8	$245	413	413	+0	Yes	+$33	09-30 15:25
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	6	$240	1,009	1,009	+0	Yes	+$12	09-14 21:51
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	9	$236	1,283	1,283	+0	Yes	+$0	09-18 13:08
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	8	$224	239	239	+0	No	+$17	09-29 08:42
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	2	$223	208	208	+0	open	—	08-26 12:35
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	10	$218	140	140	+0	No	-$20	09-12 11:52
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?	3	$206	113	113	+0	open	—	08-14 19:39
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	15	$206	1,908	740	+1,168	No	-$78	08-31 12:47
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?	2	$203	135	135	+0	open	—	09-09 20:26
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	4	$189	197	197	+0	open	—	09-07 10:54
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	2	$186	112	112	+0	No	-$14	08-31 00:11
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?	9	$182	321	228	+93	Yes	+$27	09-08 19:07
us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506 211	10	$170	190	190	+0	No	+$30	08-16 23:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	6	$168	136	136	+0	No	+$24	09-28 21:14
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	9	$162	163	163	+0	No	+$8	04-13 04:55
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	3	$160	223	223	+0	No	+$18	04-14 15:31
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216 619	2	$150	167	167	+0	No	+$70	06-17 16:16
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	10	$148	3,372	3,372	+0	No	+$66	06-28 18:18
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	9	$143	443	365	+78	Yes	+$11	06-21 16:29
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	3	$138	250	250	+0	No	+$58	06-28 00:44
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	11	$136	211	105	+106	Yes	+$51	09-15 17:02
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	8	$128	211	211	+0	No	+$28	06-19 16:09
will abbas araghchi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221268	4	$123	130	130	+0	Yes	+$28	08-20 13:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	3	$120	424	424	+0	open	—	09-29 19:09
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	16	$120	5,657	5,657	+0	No	-$63	07-01 05:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 16:17:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	150	21¢	$32	0x57c7d7…
10-01 09:54:56	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	208	16¢	$33	0xd5e7c2…
09-30 15:25:11	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	SELL	161	49¢	$79	0xcf6b91…
09-29 19:12:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	107	38¢	$41	0x730ba7…
09-29 19:10:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	305	2¢	$5	0xf2cb78…
09-29 19:09:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	313	12¢	$38	0x062a02…
09-29 19:08:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x3cd91a…
09-29 19:07:53	Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	64¢	$23	0x5ea60f…
09-29 19:07:42	Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	52	95¢	$49	0x5c5b1e…
09-29 08:42:36	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	161	25¢	$40	0x4c3b65…
09-29 08:42:27	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	SELL	37	80¢	$29	0x4832d5…
09-29 08:41:42	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x18ff0b…
09-29 08:40:57	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	SELL	252	24¢	$60	0x768605…
09-28 21:14:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	SELL	81	73¢	$59	0x53f237…
09-28 17:37:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0xc6d105…
09-28 17:36:51	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	122	25¢	$30	0xa73ca0…
09-26 18:26:39	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	42	28¢	$12	0x412177…
09-26 17:05:30	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x888390…
09-26 16:01:57	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x00f084…
09-26 15:43:24	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	32	28¢	$9	0x5b5212…
09-26 13:48:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	984	3¢	$30	0xca02cd…
09-26 07:12:45	Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x3dd54f…
09-25 07:25:38	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	9¢	$2	0xe61912…
09-25 07:21:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	110	13¢	$14	0x80d8c3…
09-25 07:19:18	Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	4¢	$3	0x8a33eb…
09-25 07:16:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	SELL	41	74¢	$30	0x2c213a…
09-24 13:31:39	Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xbd471a…
09-24 11:34:17	Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	No	SELL	29	89¢	$26	0x2b0b2c…
09-23 23:08:43	cnn politico or ms now unbanned from white house by september 30	No	BUY	242	13¢	$31	0xf42f54…
09-23 23:07:04	cnn politico or ms now unbanned from white house by september 30	No	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x8ed82c…
09-23 23:06:37	cnn politico or ms now unbanned from white house by september 30	No	BUY	19	12¢	$2	0x8cbd83…
09-23 20:50:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	SELL	14	48¢	$7	0x3f74c4…
09-23 20:48:34	houthis seize an oil tanker by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	147	2¢	$2	0x08a274…
09-23 20:48:14	Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	BUY	66	4¢	$2	0xf26d14…
09-23 20:26:17	cnn politico or ms now unbanned from white house by september 30	No	SELL	35	34¢	$12	0x3697e2…
09-23 19:47:37	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?	No	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0xd6c740…
09-23 19:46:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x6f5fb0…
09-23 19:45:26	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644 414 831	Yes	SELL	63	7¢	$4	0x3320b3…
09-23 19:43:41	will bitcoin dip to 80k in september 2026 from september 18	Yes	SELL	57	31¢	$17	0xca82a6…
09-23 17:53:25	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31?	No	BUY	150	5¢	$7	0x6016a2…
09-23 17:53:02	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31?	No	BUY	82	4¢	$3	0xb4ddbb…
09-23 16:39:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x43902d…
09-23 16:09:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644 414 831	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x359f3f…
09-23 15:00:55	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	SELL	92	49¢	$45	0x90cb71…
09-23 14:07:40	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	SELL	31	46¢	$14	0x39ebe9…
09-23 10:12:35	Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x1975d4…
09-22 22:57:13	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	84¢	$20	0x4f8dad…
09-22 22:54:44	Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x7596e1…
09-22 22:52:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?	Yes	SELL	93	18¢	$17	0xbc4444…
09-22 22:52:17	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	SELL	130	10¢	$13	0xefa7c0…
09-22 21:54:41	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	78	63¢	$49	0x16a523…
09-22 20:57:36	Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	49¢	$8	0x2187ae…
09-22 20:45:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	424	16¢	$68	0xf35f86…
09-22 20:36:56	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	SELL	41	41¢	$17	0x6d62fb…
09-22 19:45:19	Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	49¢	$10	0xf79dc2…
09-22 19:41:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	12¢	$25	0xe04337…
09-22 19:32:39	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	163	37¢	$60	0xe6e3a4…
09-22 18:36:13	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x061634…
09-22 17:23:42	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x4cb96f…
09-22 17:23:21	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x80eb96…
09-22 17:13:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0x75b97f…
09-22 11:34:12	Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	199	4¢	$7	0x3bc0ec…
09-22 11:32:43	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	BUY	169	18¢	$30	0x27eca2…
09-22 11:28:10	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xa1b5de…
09-22 11:28:06	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0xdc0087…
09-22 11:27:58	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x980bd1…
09-21 21:28:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	31¢	$34	0x5160cc…
09-21 21:26:09	will bitcoin dip to 80k in september 2026 from september 18	Yes	BUY	149	20¢	$30	0x5382d9…
09-21 14:03:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x6171c6…
09-20 07:47:14	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	42	9¢	$4	0x467469…
09-20 07:42:34	Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x7fab4f…
09-20 07:42:26	Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	62¢	$27	0xbd82e4…
09-20 07:38:47	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	270	15¢	$40	0x5f4252…
09-20 07:32:10	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	34¢	$20	0xa201cc…
09-20 06:45:51	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x59f36b…
09-20 06:39:27	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	6¢	$10	0xe6b64d…
09-19 21:58:39	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	4¢	$7	0xb5da02…
09-18 13:08:23	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	213	9¢	$19	0x22dc11…
09-17 12:49:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0xc76a28…
09-16 21:41:42	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	SELL	40	39¢	$15	0x94569e…
09-16 19:17:30	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	40	34¢	$13	0xa0c192…
09-16 05:45:36	will there be houthi military action against israel by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0x4eb4d7…
09-15 18:53:39	will there be houthi military action against israel by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x96b690…
09-15 17:05:16	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026?	No	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0x1942ae…
09-15 17:04:43	will wti reach 130 in september 2026	Yes	SELL	85	10¢	$8	0xddcc38…
09-15 17:02:54	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xccdbe1…
09-15 17:02:25	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x301f21…
09-15 17:02:04	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026?	No	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0xcfc2bf…
09-15 17:01:58	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026?	No	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x39f9c2…
09-15 13:59:13	will there be houthi military action against israel by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x12d24c…
09-15 11:43:34	will there be houthi military action against israel by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x6da042…
09-15 11:42:25	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xdae691…
09-15 11:32:27	will there be houthi military action against israel by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xfa3b9c…
09-15 11:03:28	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0xe13a29…
09-15 11:03:04	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x7a764a…
09-15 11:03:01	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x87ab79…
09-15 11:02:16	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x835d4c…
09-15 11:00:51	Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	312	3¢	$8	0xedc231…
09-15 09:05:04	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	3¢	$6	0x557feb…
09-15 06:01:30	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	47	91¢	$43	0x177d0b…