Active-Shearling — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$272

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

55.1%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

196

665 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$788

$2.75K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-03 08:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 192 days

Categories

Other

87% 7% +$330

Crypto

13% 18% -$37

Sports

0% 0% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 95 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes		+1,244	$9	0¢	$3	-$6	11-02 07:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 360 379	6	$463	1,109	1,109	+0	Yes	+$453	02-10 15:57
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	6	$293	3,094	3,000	+94	No	+$283	10-13 10:35
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 340 359	5	$110	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$104	02-09 17:28
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	3	$92	583	583	+0	Yes	+$88	02-28 18:58
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	2	$71	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$69	10-09 06:15
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	2	$56	536	457	+79	No	+$50	04-13 06:39
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	6	$54	3,524	1,762	+1,762	No	+$44	04-02 16:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	11	$51	93	0	+93	Down	-$26	10-18 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	10	$42	187	0	+187	Up	$0	10-18 07:59
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	2	$38	200	200	+0	No	+$34	02-05 19:20
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	3	$37	1,116	516	+600	No	+$25	04-03 14:32
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 400 419	2	$30	182	182	+0	No	+$26	01-21 11:16
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 420 439	2	$29	333	333	+0	No	+$25	01-29 23:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:50 UTC	12	$26	198	0	+198	Up	-$5	10-16 22:55
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 340 359	3	$23	1,502	751	+751	No	+$13	02-13 06:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:30 UTC	7	$21	559	0	+559	Down	+$12	10-16 22:34
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 120 139	3	$19	306	192	+114	No	+$11	03-04 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	6	$18	45	0	+45	Up	-$1	10-18 05:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:50 UTC	5	$17	131	0	+131	Down	-$5	10-18 07:54
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 360 379	3	$17	1,124	107	+1,017	No	+$9	01-22 18:03
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 200 219	4	$15	10,912	0	+10,912	No	-$15	04-05 20:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:10 UTC	4	$14	291	0	+291	Up	-$14	10-16 23:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:35 UTC	3	$13	239	0	+239	Up	-$13	10-16 22:39
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 240 259	2	$13	212	212	+0	No	+$9	03-05 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	5	$11	29	0	+29	Down	-$6	10-18 16:37
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 220 239	3	$11	6,393	0	+6,393	No	-$11	04-14 05:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:45 UTC	6	$10	244	0	+244	Up	-$10	10-16 22:49
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 240 259	3	$10	4,338	0	+4,338	No	-$10	02-25 22:00
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$10	3,202	0	+3,202	No	-$10	05-06 14:40
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 180 199	4	$10	9,126	0	+9,126	No	-$10	02-15 20:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 08:39:42	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,380	0¢	$5	0xcc3f9a…
11-02 07:01:01	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	659	1¢	$5	0xe7bab4…
11-02 07:00:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	585	1¢	$4	0xa0e115…
11-01 21:28:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,178	0¢	$5	0x51465d…
11-01 21:28:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	486	0¢	$2	0x8adaa8…
10-28 20:35:34	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0x51c43b…
10-26 08:19:09	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc17a1f…
10-23 04:07:45	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	565	1¢	$3	0xc7c7ca…
10-19 17:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xbfd2f7…
10-19 17:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xac1a3c…
10-19 17:17:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0a0987…
10-19 17:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x5c41d1…
10-19 17:16:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2367a1…
10-19 17:16:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe11018…
10-19 17:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xbf2071…
10-19 17:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x76cc30…
10-19 17:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xdd22ac…
10-19 17:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x43b98b…
10-19 17:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf9ef4d…
10-19 17:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x048e61…
10-19 17:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x0dc074…
10-19 17:08:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x79ed89…
10-19 17:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x375283…
10-19 17:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xa7de9e…
10-19 17:00:47	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x3d9025…
10-18 17:01:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x86378d…
10-18 17:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x245c2a…
10-18 16:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x784eb0…
10-18 16:56:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x6befdb…
10-18 16:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x2e9e3f…
10-18 16:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0e741f…
10-18 16:49:54	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	730	0¢	$2	0x0c71a8…
10-18 16:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xee45be…
10-18 16:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xd1c8a2…
10-18 16:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xc10edb…
10-18 16:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x158b78…
10-18 16:35:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1f6d5d…
10-18 16:35:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x5d75a9…
10-18 08:04:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xba438e…
10-18 08:04:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x5d312a…
10-18 08:03:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xcd13c1…
10-18 08:03:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xe0a201…
10-18 08:03:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xde6f46…
10-18 08:03:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x110203…
10-18 08:03:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xa9ddff…
10-18 08:02:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xe4cba9…
10-18 08:01:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x8d4fbf…
10-18 08:01:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x1747db…
10-18 08:00:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xc25462…
10-18 07:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xaf5308…
10-18 07:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x5c02c2…
10-18 07:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9f0ad1…
10-18 07:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xd83eaf…
10-18 07:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xc3cc15…
10-18 07:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x18fdba…
10-18 07:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe42500…
10-18 07:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x4739c2…
10-18 07:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x857b88…
10-18 07:55:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xafaf1c…
10-18 07:54:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x33d91c…
10-18 07:53:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb8b688…
10-18 07:52:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:50 UTC	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x86f30b…
10-18 07:51:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xf46680…
10-18 07:50:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xbf6d3f…
10-18 07:20:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xef9ac3…
10-18 05:49:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x761a2e…
10-18 05:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x51fe32…
10-18 05:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x093daf…
10-18 05:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x0b9345…
10-18 05:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x548270…
10-18 05:45:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x580f34…
10-18 05:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x0783ee…
10-18 05:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd33d51…
10-18 05:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x2a1473…
10-18 05:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6eddb1…
10-18 05:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf5a19b…
10-18 05:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x90ed0e…
10-18 05:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf8f94c…
10-18 05:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x28cfb9…
10-18 05:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x4cb931…
10-18 05:36:54	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x17b184…
10-16 23:19:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x02fd55…
10-16 23:14:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x58b823…
10-16 23:12:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x516db1…
10-16 23:12:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x2e75cb…
10-16 23:10:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xef744b…
10-16 23:07:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:05 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x44a812…
10-16 23:06:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:05 UTC	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x1a9109…
10-16 23:03:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xed5ce2…
10-16 23:00:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xfdd5b5…
10-16 23:00:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x7d75c6…
10-16 22:59:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:55 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4bd902…
10-16 22:58:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:55 UTC	Down	SELL	9	61¢	$6	0x94900d…
10-16 22:55:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:55 UTC	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x51e450…
10-16 22:55:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd49ddd…
10-16 22:54:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	45	10¢	$5	0x52bf55…
10-16 22:54:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xba5fa5…
10-16 22:54:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xc8e790…
10-16 22:53:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xdfc6c4…
10-16 22:53:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x7b5c89…