Subdued-Policy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

16.6%

Resolved

Trades

338

lifetime

Volume

$1.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 07-01 16:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

44% 50% $-0

Politics

27% 25% $-14

Tech

11% — —

Sports

9% 0% $-0

Crypto

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	17	$120	87	87	+0	open	—	04-12 12:10
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	16	$105	161	68	+94	No	$-8	05-07 00:35
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	18	$92	144	144	+0	open	—	04-12 06:13
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138 771 819 232	7	$80	100	78	+22	open	—	07-01 16:40
will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	12	$63	63	45	+18	open	—	06-25 14:10
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	7	$62	40	30	+10	open	—	05-15 22:40
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	23	$60	80	93	-13	open	—	06-27 01:10
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	4	$56	40	29	+11	open	—	07-01 00:10
will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	3	$52	45	45	+0	open	—	06-15 14:10
will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	12	$47	169	169	+0	open	—	04-11 20:12
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	10	$44	84	84	+0	open	—	04-23 17:40
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	6	$44	120	0	+120	open	—	04-23 19:07
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	4	$35	100	100	+0	open	—	06-28 04:38
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	3	$33	21	21	+0	open	—	04-08 02:10
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	5	$31	23	23	+0	No	$-4	04-15 21:40
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	7	$26	175	175	+0	open	—	04-07 21:12
israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	3	$25	100	100	+0	open	—	06-26 19:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$24	13	13	+0	Yes	+$0	04-21 18:05
will gerb udf gerb sds finish second in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	5	$23	25	0	+25	open	—	04-13 13:36
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	4	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	06-16 02:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	4	$19	0	21	-21	open	—	06-06 06:40
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	3	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	04-21 18:05
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$17	11	11	+0	open	—	04-24 09:10
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$17	25	25	+0	open	—	04-10 12:10
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	6	$17	71	71	+0	open	—	04-05 09:43
Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026?	2	$15	21	20	+1	open	—	04-16 23:40
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$13	23	23	+0	No	$-0	04-14 19:40
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$12	15	0	+15	open	—	06-13 07:39
nba min dal 2026 03 30	3	$12	102	0	+102	open	—	03-31 01:02
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	1	$12	20	0	+20	open	—	04-29 06:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 16:40:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138 771 819 232	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4ca039…
07-01 05:10:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138 771 819 232	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xea3728…
07-01 00:10:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	Yes	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x27d193…
06-30 22:40:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138 771 819 232	Yes	SELL	8	95¢	$7	0x3a2377…
06-29 06:40:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$9	0xb878a5…
06-28 04:38:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x169b0c…
06-27 01:10:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcc5555…
06-27 01:09:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x1841c8…
06-26 21:45:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xd1aa36…
06-26 19:27:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138	No	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0xa906d2…
06-26 19:27:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	SELL	50	17¢	$9	0xde2750…
06-26 19:27:17	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0xaaa1b7…
06-26 19:27:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0xf090cc…
06-26 18:40:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x160003…
06-26 10:10:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0x8fb61e…
06-25 21:30:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x0f39ce…
06-25 14:10:05	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x22ec9c…
06-25 03:10:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4	87¢	$4	0x5ec835…
06-24 21:10:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x86c536…
06-24 15:10:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0xcbe96d…
06-24 14:10:04	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x65250f…
06-24 09:52:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x19d866…
06-24 09:51:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x1ab36f…
06-24 09:00:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0x305aaf…
06-24 07:09:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x5b347c…
06-24 06:35:58	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x56c34b…
06-24 04:47:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x3eb3d3…
06-23 23:40:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x626f82…
06-23 07:10:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0x24dcef…
06-23 05:40:04	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xfbf74b…
06-22 15:40:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x6aaf82…
06-18 21:40:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0xe0fb7f…
06-18 15:10:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	8	54¢	$4	0x93a544…
06-18 09:00:10	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0x8862d4…
06-18 09:00:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0x02eb2c…
06-17 23:40:05	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	3	87¢	$3	0xc701dc…
06-17 22:10:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0xb9148e…
06-17 17:40:05	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x885474…
06-17 17:40:04	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0xbe92a7…
06-17 17:10:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x6e189e…
06-17 15:40:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2	31¢	$0	0x401e0e…
06-17 06:40:04	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x1a75b6…
06-17 04:10:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x3f5f7b…
06-16 22:10:05	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x2ce776…
06-16 21:40:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xcc944a…
06-16 15:10:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0xf7b6e2…
06-16 15:10:07	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x0c38b5…
06-16 09:00:09	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4	21¢	$1	0x62a722…
06-16 04:10:04	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0x44da25…
06-16 03:10:06	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0xbf5991…
06-16 02:10:06	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0xe77212…
06-15 18:51:01	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	13	68¢	$9	0x3518b5…
06-15 18:43:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x040c0c…
06-15 18:19:40	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0xcf05d5…
06-15 14:10:04	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	45	49¢	$22	0x790ac3…
06-15 10:10:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0x3f22f5…
06-15 05:04:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xd6bd22…
06-15 04:17:33	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xea01de…
06-15 04:17:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x61e4ff…
06-15 03:17:54	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x60f3c8…
06-14 14:37:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x569339…
06-14 14:07:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x782c86…
06-14 12:07:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xb8a53b…
06-14 05:40:06	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x0be79f…
06-14 04:10:04	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x2f5c7a…
06-13 13:37:25	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x98b5db…
06-13 12:37:24	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x7a6d3c…
06-13 07:39:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x88cbbd…
06-13 07:07:28	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xd5f0c1…
06-13 07:07:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x8582be…
06-12 23:51:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x1e1618…
06-12 23:21:15	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x264d05…
06-12 23:05:22	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xcf0187…
06-12 21:59:15	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x99d72e…
06-12 21:34:54	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x1da34c…
06-12 21:07:24	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9b6b89…
06-12 19:45:30	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x1d4716…
06-11 23:40:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0xb7fee9…
06-11 23:40:07	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x7ffd25…
06-11 18:10:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x84c7a3…
06-11 13:10:07	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xdb7027…
06-11 00:00:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xb6ebb0…
06-10 20:00:28	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x50ec4c…
06-10 12:56:03	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x216c58…
06-10 12:55:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0xf6334b…
06-10 03:32:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	61¢	$3	0x9491a6…
06-06 06:40:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xb7bf8e…
06-06 00:10:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x0cb6b5…
05-30 18:10:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	4	86¢	$4	0x7de0b8…
05-28 03:40:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0xe533fb…
05-27 16:10:04	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xb63aef…
05-25 15:40:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0x68c500…
05-24 01:00:14	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x55c630…
05-24 00:10:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0x8faae6…
05-23 23:40:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x831706…
05-23 21:10:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x43feaa…
05-23 18:10:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x3fd9dc…
05-23 18:10:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x2c580c…
05-23 18:05:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x8ebf52…
05-23 15:36:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x3d9438…