Fair-Father — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

105

Trades

117

lifetime

Volume

$2.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-23

last 11-06 12:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 94% $0

Other

31% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 6?	No		+9	$9	100¢	$9	$0	11-06 12:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 76k on march 27	1	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	03-27 08:31
bitcoin above 60k on march 31	1	$61	61	0	+61	Yes	+$0	03-31 03:48
bitcoin above 70k on march 29	1	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	03-29 11:07
bitcoin above 76k on march 24	1	$57	57	0	+57	No	+$0	03-24 07:09
bitcoin above 64k on march 25	1	$55	55	0	+55	Yes	+$0	03-25 02:58
bitcoin above 64k on march 23	1	$55	55	0	+55	Yes	+$0	03-23 06:08
bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	07-12 10:05
bitcoin above 64k on march 26	1	$50	50	0	+50	Yes	+$0	03-26 06:16
bitcoin above 56k on july 20 2026	2	$44	22	22	+0	Yes	+$0	07-18 03:46
bitcoin above 72k on march 30	1	$43	43	0	+43	No	+$0	03-30 10:57
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$0	10-01 22:07
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	09-27 08:48
bitcoin above 74k on april 1	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	04-01 06:33
bitcoin above 62k on march 28	1	$31	31	0	+31	Yes	+$0	03-28 07:38
bitcoin above 62k on april 2	1	$31	31	0	+31	Yes	+$0	04-02 11:48
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14?	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	05-14 14:47
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	05-16 14:07
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	05-21 10:13
bitcoin above 66k on april 9	1	$26	26	0	+26	Yes	+$0	04-09 05:32
ethereum above 1800 on june 14 2026	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	06-14 13:10
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 17?	1	$25	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	05-17 13:25
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	06-01 07:56
bitcoin above 56k on july 3 2026	1	$24	24	0	+24	Yes	+$0	07-03 07:33
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on August 12?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	08-11 10:12
bitcoin above 66k on april 13	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	04-13 08:51
bitcoin above 58k on july 7 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	07-07 04:17
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	05-15 13:09
ethereum above 1900 on june 9 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	06-09 04:32
ethereum above 2100 on july 24 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	07-24 08:38
ethereum above 2000 on june 4 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	06-04 09:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 12:01:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xafd182…
11-04 15:07:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 4?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4a6f25…
11-02 13:05:22	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on November 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x24c57e…
10-27 08:57:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x56ca86…
10-23 04:45:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xee4a80…
10-22 07:56:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3e697a…
10-20 13:10:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x04a4f4…
10-19 09:20:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb6ca9f…
10-14 04:48:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 14?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x142fa4…
10-12 06:08:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 12?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x060242…
10-01 22:07:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0x93540d…
10-01 19:43:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0x7915b0…
09-30 00:19:54	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x883df1…
09-27 08:48:56	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$19	0xe16743…
09-27 05:46:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0xe34cc8…
09-24 17:54:35	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0x2e1b5d…
09-19 06:48:07	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x52b5ef…
09-16 04:08:36	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe6789d…
09-14 11:53:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$10	0x6fa617…
09-13 15:21:16	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$11	0x098bd0…
09-10 07:35:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 10?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbad871…
09-09 15:40:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 9?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x18007c…
09-08 09:38:34	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 8?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0xb6f916…
09-04 07:23:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x43c06b…
09-02 05:48:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 2?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x1a522f…
08-31 15:22:10	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on September 1?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x8dea8e…
08-28 07:56:07	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x5916f0…
08-20 14:30:19	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x0e2db2…
08-17 13:58:37	bitcoin above 68k on august 17 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x3c5395…
08-14 09:32:45	bitcoin above 66k on august 14 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x76e766…
08-11 10:12:57	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on August 12?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x823105…
08-08 15:31:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 40°C or higher on August 9?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x903c6f…
08-07 03:34:40	bitcoin above 60k on august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x95b970…
07-29 14:53:38	ethereum above 1700 on july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xfca3c0…
07-28 13:03:56	Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x05455b…
07-24 08:38:00	ethereum above 2100 on july 24 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xbe5eb4…
07-23 05:15:42	bitcoin above 70k on july 23 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x0de0a9…
07-20 04:48:46	ethereum above 1700 on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xafd926…
07-18 03:46:13	bitcoin above 56k on july 20 2026	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x06738b…
07-17 16:12:22	bitcoin above 56k on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x0b1b2c…
07-15 12:50:25	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 16?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf9a7c2…
07-12 10:20:32	bitcoin above 62k on july 12 2026	No	SELL	169	0¢	$1	0x629b60…
07-12 10:13:25	bitcoin above 62k on july 12 2026	No	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x6f786f…
07-12 10:13:05	bitcoin above 62k on july 12 2026	No	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x46b84e…
07-12 10:12:55	bitcoin above 62k on july 12 2026	No	BUY	180	1¢	$1	0xd152a5…
07-12 10:05:04	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x58910b…
07-12 09:41:19	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x42faef…
07-07 04:17:59	bitcoin above 58k on july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc4b467…
07-06 14:35:47	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x42be8d…
07-06 13:52:46	bitcoin above 58k on july 6 2026	No	SELL	2,190	0¢	$2	0x0d045f…
07-06 13:49:28	bitcoin above 58k on july 6 2026	No	BUY	2,190	0¢	$4	0x8e602c…
07-03 07:33:23	bitcoin above 56k on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf0d361…
07-02 08:13:31	bitcoin above 66k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x35efa2…
07-01 07:28:47	bitcoin above 52k on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa4df77…
06-27 06:19:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc18409…
06-22 06:14:25	bitcoin above 70k on june 22 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xef9646…
06-17 05:30:16	bitcoin above 60k on june 17 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xcee14e…
06-15 13:11:27	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x91b086…
06-14 13:10:37	ethereum above 1800 on june 14 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x64e735…
06-13 10:47:15	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc4ed38…
06-10 08:43:03	bitcoin above 56k on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x13fe1a…
06-09 04:32:16	ethereum above 1900 on june 9 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xe9748a…
06-07 16:16:24	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa50864…
06-06 13:05:31	bitcoin above 64k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x4a959a…
06-05 14:25:27	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8bc6f1…
06-04 09:16:01	ethereum above 2000 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xcec89d…
06-03 13:33:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xed33de…
06-02 15:01:11	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3eeaee…
06-01 07:56:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x0b486f…
05-30 15:51:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on May 31?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x80406c…
05-28 14:00:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	No	SELL	2,000	0¢	$4	0xa57f35…
05-28 13:52:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0xc9b4cb…
05-26 15:15:58	Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xbfc775…
05-24 12:32:13	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa5f970…
05-22 11:27:30	Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 22?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x6c75ab…
05-21 10:13:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x64a99e…
05-19 12:35:56	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x055cf2…
05-17 13:25:55	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x4f2b10…
05-16 14:07:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xb1ffb6…
05-15 13:09:59	Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x882f8d…
05-14 14:47:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6510bc…
05-13 12:59:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x20d8c9…
05-12 08:38:48	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x79247f…
05-11 10:24:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4f05ff…
05-08 16:39:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x9701bf…
05-06 08:35:12	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x803d63…
04-27 04:09:18	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe305ab…
04-25 00:57:50	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x062a00…
04-23 09:24:22	ethereum above 2000 on april 23	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x846680…
04-22 21:50:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x44a40a…
04-21 04:14:24	will threads be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 21	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xfb2609…
04-19 06:09:24	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xb9d62b…
04-18 15:06:10	bitcoin above 78k on april 18	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xd4bbff…
04-17 05:34:52	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9b0d86…
04-15 11:23:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa2818a…
04-14 07:03:19	ethereum above 2100 on april 14	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd76360…
04-13 08:51:03	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x37579a…
04-11 11:53:59	highest temperature in shanghai on april 12 2026 27corhigher	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x383ca7…
04-10 04:30:51	highest temperature in shanghai on april 11 2026 12corbelow	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9f2ba4…
04-09 05:32:47	bitcoin above 66k on april 9	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x3be715…