Bountiful-Sensitivity — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$355

Unrealized P&L

+$55

Hit rate

82.5%

Resolved (90d)

854

Trades (90d)

1,934

3,608 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$167.3K

$281.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$1.52K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 10:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 236 days

Categories

Other

69% 68% +$954

Crypto

22% 75% +$475

Politics

5% 79% -$301

Sports

3% 71% -$133

Tech

0% 83% +$36

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 157 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes		+1,540	$1,470	99¢	$1.5K	+$55	10-31 10:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 24?	6	$3.7K	1,862	1,862	+0	Down	+$60	10-24 16:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	14	$2.8K	2,586	2,586	+0	No	+$55	09-10 12:34
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 19?	5	$2.7K	1,336	1,336	+0	Up	+$14	10-19 13:30
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$2.6K	1,406	1,406	+0	Up	-$25	05-06 13:09
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?	5	$2.4K	1,247	1,247	+0	Up	+$25	10-19 16:03
spx up or down on july 30 2026	7	$2.4K	1,487	1,123	+364	Up	+$63	07-30 15:55
spx opens up or down on september 16 2026	4	$2.3K	1,187	1,187	+0	Up	+$36	09-16 13:30
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 27?	5	$2.3K	1,171	1,171	+0	Up	+$20	10-27 13:30
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 26?	10	$2.2K	1,176	1,176	+0	Up	+$100	10-26 13:31
spx opens up or down on august 5 2026	10	$2.2K	1,135	1,135	+0	Up	+$36	08-05 13:37
spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	6	$2.1K	1,115	1,115	+0	Up	+$114	06-08 13:18
spx opens up or down on october 14 2026	5	$2.0K	1,032	1,032	+0	Down	+$31	10-14 13:37
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 21?	3	$2.0K	1,006	1,006	+0	Up	+$5	09-21 13:40
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 9?	3	$1.8K	914	914	+0	Up	+$13	10-09 13:46
spx opens up or down on august 4 2026	8	$1.7K	907	907	+0	Up	+$36	08-04 13:44
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 21?	7	$1.7K	1,048	848	+199	Up	+$30	09-21 11:42
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 23?	7	$1.7K	871	871	+0	Down	+$70	10-23 13:31
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 21?	7	$1.7K	854	854	+0	No	+$38	10-21 20:00
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	5	$1.7K	838	838	+0	Down	+$17	05-11 15:06
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 22?	4	$1.6K	826	826	+0	Down	+$25	10-22 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20?	2	$1.6K	812	812	+0	Up	+$11	10-20 16:00
spx opens up or down on june 11 2026	16	$1.5K	1,033	1,033	+0	Up	+$173	06-11 09:52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	7	$1.5K	908	908	+0	Yes	+$103	07-29 18:05
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 29?	5	$1.5K	773	773	+0	Yes	+$72	10-29 20:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	4	$1.5K	1,540	0	+1,540	open	—	10-31 10:42
spx opens up or down on september 11 2026	6	$1.5K	796	796	+0	Up	-$3	09-11 13:38
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 21?	4	$1.4K	733	733	+0	Up	+$32	10-21 16:01
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 22?	3	$1.3K	1,125	216	+909	No	+$22	10-23 02:57
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27?	4	$1.3K	674	673	+1	Down	+$22	04-27 14:23
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	4	$1.3K	651	651	+0	Up	+$31	05-07 17:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 10:42:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	586	97¢	$570	0xa51576…
10-31 10:42:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	No	SELL	579	100¢	$576	0x2eec42…
10-31 00:21:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	No	BUY	579	98¢	$570	0xa896d8…
10-30 20:31:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0xe261c9…
10-30 20:28:51	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x22e5f4…
10-30 19:24:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	317	95¢	$300	0x7168ab…
10-30 19:19:04	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	110	59¢	$65	0xbc32c3…
10-30 19:12:22	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	110	75¢	$82	0x16180c…
10-30 19:05:55	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	115	51¢	$59	0x332365…
10-30 19:03:28	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	204	46¢	$94	0xc1b4ca…
10-30 15:57:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	322	93¢	$300	0x0be308…
10-30 15:57:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	311	98¢	$306	0x79b1d6…
10-30 14:26:16	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x54b5f3…
10-30 14:25:04	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	309	97¢	$300	0xbf768e…
10-30 14:24:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xc20b18…
10-30 14:02:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	314	95¢	$300	0xd02acd…
10-30 13:54:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 30?	Down	SELL	356	100¢	$356	0x8c48d3…
10-30 13:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 30?	Down	SELL	514	100¢	$513	0x613e96…
10-30 11:46:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	311	96¢	$300	0xbd87b4…
10-30 11:28:31	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	124	82¢	$101	0xbbdda5…
10-30 11:27:48	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	238	88¢	$209	0xbd5752…
10-30 07:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 30?	Down	BUY	308	98¢	$300	0x868d7c…
10-30 07:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 30?	Down	BUY	207	97¢	$200	0x4e6845…
10-30 05:39:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 30?	Down	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x3978d9…
10-30 05:30:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 30?	Down	BUY	154	97¢	$150	0xeabca5…
10-30 02:14:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0x9eb653…
10-29 20:21:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0xcab297…
10-29 20:07:58	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	45	64¢	$29	0x5a1e37…
10-29 20:01:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29?	Down	SELL	236	100¢	$235	0xed86b3…
10-29 20:00:45	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	773	100¢	$772	0x55430e…
10-29 17:46:07	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0xbbb9f9…
10-29 17:33:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 29?	Down	SELL	65	41¢	$26	0x37ae3a…
10-29 15:55:08	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $562.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x378fb0…
10-29 15:46:28	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29?	Down	BUY	121	83¢	$100	0x2fe2fc…
10-29 15:45:41	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	210	98¢	$207	0xf5dd13…
10-29 15:34:02	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x128a9c…
10-29 15:32:35	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	510	67¢	$342	0x4c1067…
10-29 14:23:41	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $356 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0x433b61…
10-29 14:14:20	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x9be7b9…
10-29 14:06:26	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x625e7e…
10-29 14:01:34	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	226	88¢	$200	0xe0b5df…
10-29 13:41:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29?	Down	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x9f452a…
10-29 13:32:31	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 29?	Down	SELL	505	100¢	$505	0x51ea4d…
10-29 12:40:17	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 29?	Down	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0xa71951…
10-29 12:20:53	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $562.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xb7e3c2…
10-29 09:06:47	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 29?	Down	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x5c4702…
10-29 09:02:16	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 29?	Down	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0x31d9ba…
10-29 08:40:25	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x209240…
10-29 08:05:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29?	Down	SELL	69	71¢	$49	0x5f72f4…
10-29 07:53:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29?	Down	SELL	69	70¢	$48	0xc99775…
10-29 04:07:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?	No	SELL	213	100¢	$213	0xe6e617…
10-29 02:28:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x613fdd…
10-29 02:28:01	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 28?	No	SELL	203	100¢	$202	0xc46bd0…
10-29 02:10:41	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29?	Down	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xa8129c…
10-29 02:05:26	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0x46a28e…
10-28 20:11:17	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	210	95¢	$200	0xaf22d9…
10-28 20:10:19	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	303	100¢	$303	0x0828b7…
10-28 20:09:04	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	325	92¢	$300	0x5a0415…
10-28 20:06:58	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x3aaa0e…
10-28 20:06:19	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	219	91¢	$200	0x3951c2…
10-28 20:03:58	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	110	18¢	$20	0xb95589…
10-28 20:01:02	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 28?	No	SELL	430	100¢	$430	0xae0a32…
10-28 20:00:49	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 28?	No	SELL	307	100¢	$307	0x1d5a2c…
10-28 19:54:16	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	303	99¢	$300	0xe843c1…
10-28 19:39:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	308	99¢	$305	0x80fb2b…
10-28 19:15:04	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 28?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xe92ff5…
10-28 19:09:14	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 28?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x39762c…
10-28 19:07:59	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 28?	No	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0xd3e664…
10-28 18:01:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	421	100¢	$420	0x501cd3…
10-28 17:31:10	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	110	81¢	$89	0x7362dc…
10-28 17:28:02	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x04b480…
10-28 15:22:28	Will El Masry SC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0x2a3897…
10-28 14:53:16	Will El Masry SC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x077bd1…
10-28 14:46:49	AS Néstos Chrysoúpolis vs. PS Kalamáta: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xc73cf1…
10-28 14:11:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	421	95¢	$400	0x4a53b3…
10-28 14:08:37	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 28?	No	SELL	56	83¢	$46	0x600278…
10-28 14:07:47	Persib Bandung vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xdc0c84…
10-28 14:07:14	Will Persib Bandung win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x1ef6d7…
10-28 13:47:37	Persib Bandung vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x752488…
10-28 13:37:56	Will Persib Bandung win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xdf1cfc…
10-28 13:31:49	Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x712ec1…
10-28 13:31:38	Gamba Osaka vs. Buriram United: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x9eb87b…
10-28 13:31:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	449	100¢	$449	0x1e3a74…
10-28 13:18:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0x68c79b…
10-28 13:06:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0x5f9d61…
10-28 12:36:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xfd3145…
10-28 11:57:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	27	73¢	$20	0xc30bbd…
10-28 11:37:53	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x5fb1c6…
10-28 11:31:34	Gamba Osaka vs. Buriram United: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x7a8ad7…
10-28 11:27:53	Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xfb4b2d…
10-28 10:44:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	35	81¢	$28	0xe75415…
10-28 04:55:55	spy closes above 780 on october 28 2026	No	BUY	307	98¢	$300	0x70a267…
10-28 04:49:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xb236b1…
10-28 03:46:31	Wild vs. Utah: O/U 6.5	Under	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0xf351b1…
10-28 03:30:55	Canucks vs. Ducks: O/U 9.5	Under	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0xcf14c8…
10-28 02:59:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10PM ET	Up	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x5b1faf…
10-28 02:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0xdd2f0a…
10-28 02:45:59	Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5	Under	SELL	103	61¢	$63	0xe9f514…
10-28 02:39:27	Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5	Under	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xe7eaea…
10-28 02:30:17	Wild vs. Utah: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x4c938d…