Super-Incident — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$46

Unrealized P&L

-$25

Hit rate

64.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$284

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

9 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 10-23 15:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

39% 12% -$34

Politics

30% 40% +$54

Sports

28% 100% +$30

Tech

3% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	+71	$5	6¢	$4	-$1	10-21 18:55
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	+14	$5	23¢	$3	-$2	07-24 22:07
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+90	$10	2¢	$2	-$8	06-30 17:19
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+11	$3	15¢	$2	-$1	10-21 18:51
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+8	$2	16¢	$1	-$1	07-24 21:59
ukraine coup attempt by december 31	Yes	+38	$5	3¢	$1	-$4	07-24 21:43
will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	+26	$2	3¢	$1	-$1	07-24 22:03
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+10	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	08-19 20:36
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	Yes	+25	$5	2¢	$0	-$5	05-11 16:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 15:39:14	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0xd88aa6…
10-23 15:38:48	Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	143	2¢	$3	0x67efa4…
10-23 15:36:48	Will the Bank of Russia announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	73	5¢	$4	0xe2b1d3…
10-21 18:55:53	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x0a7bd4…
10-21 18:51:44	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x1b06fd…
10-21 18:43:24	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	57	26¢	$15	0x8db234…
10-21 18:42:27	Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	89	12¢	$11	0xa4f1c3…
09-24 19:14:50	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x7c5677…
09-24 19:13:38	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x2ef5b1…
09-04 17:10:28	atp bublik paul 2026 09 04	Alexander Bublik	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x122c30…
09-04 17:03:19	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	SELL	42	35¢	$15	0x0999c1…
08-19 20:37:43	Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x5e3823…
08-19 20:36:04	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xa349d4…
08-19 20:34:34	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x3f4e6b…
08-17 11:27:13	Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0x991daf…
08-17 11:15:42	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x97da96…
07-31 16:34:45	will anthropic remove paid plan access for fable 5 by july 31 2026 20260713185755112	Yes	SELL	116	0¢	$0	0x8230aa…
07-24 22:07:58	Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x25fedf…
07-24 22:03:42	will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	BUY	26	8¢	$2	0x97be26…
07-24 21:59:46	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xc1f37c…
07-24 21:48:04	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x58e882…
07-24 21:43:28	ukraine coup attempt by december 31	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xd44d64…
07-19 22:30:03	will anthropic remove paid plan access for fable 5 by july 31 2026 20260713185755112	Yes	BUY	116	4¢	$5	0x5b8dfb…
07-19 22:04:22	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xb1a8bf…
07-18 08:37:18	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x65c57c…
07-18 08:35:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x866b96…
07-18 08:35:42	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	23	59¢	$14	0x9e075a…
07-17 08:51:43	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x6d7ae9…
07-17 08:48:34	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x953fd6…
07-17 08:46:15	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	42	58¢	$25	0xb7ae4a…
07-17 08:45:45	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	19¢	$3	0xe4d80f…
07-07 16:35:38	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	27	19¢	$5	0xe29ec2…
06-30 17:19:47	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0x6756ac…
06-15 16:40:01	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x6f5c1a…
06-10 18:36:04	will spacexs high share price on its first day of trading hit 200 high 20260608191407796	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xd0e7bb…
06-10 18:22:27	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	SELL	11	81¢	$9	0x2fb844…
06-10 18:18:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x133021…
06-09 16:58:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	23	21¢	$5	0x9df327…
06-09 16:57:48	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 22	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xf0f294…
06-09 16:52:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x59b1a2…
06-01 15:50:58	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x978423…
06-01 15:49:56	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x9d5962…
05-25 20:58:52	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x49b05f…
05-19 18:18:52	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x3853b6…
05-18 18:05:23	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x6b014a…
05-18 18:04:34	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xc0a04d…
05-11 16:31:49	Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xd97ab9…
05-11 16:29:11	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xa9ed1b…
04-10 18:05:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	8¢	$5	0xf313ab…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$80	82	82	+0	Yes	+$30	07-19 22:04
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	3	$25	42	42	+0	No	+$5	09-04 17:03
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	2	$16	89	89	+0	open	—	10-21 18:42
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	1	$15	57	0	+57	No	-$15	10-21 18:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$15	20	20	+0	open	—	07-18 08:35
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	2	$14	11	11	+0	Yes	+$4	06-10 18:22
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	2	$10	36	0	+36	Yes	-$4	05-18 18:04
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$10	90	0	+90	open	—	06-30 17:19
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$10	23	23	+0	Yes	$0	06-09 16:58
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	2	$8	16	16	+0	open	—	07-17 08:45
will anthropic remove paid plan access for fable 5 by july 31 2026 20260713185755112	2	$5	116	116	+0	No	-$5	07-31 16:34
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	1	$5	25	0	+25	open	—	05-11 16:31
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	1	$5	71	0	+71	open	—	10-21 18:55
will spacexs high share price on its first day of trading hit 200 high 20260608191407796	1	$5	25	0	+25	No	-$5	06-10 18:36
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$5	12	0	+12	Spain	-$5	07-17 08:51
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	07-24 22:07
ukraine coup attempt by december 31	1	$5	38	0	+38	open	—	07-24 21:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	66	0	+66	Yes	+$61	04-10 18:05
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	1	$5	17	0	+17	Yes	-$5	06-01 15:50
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?	1	$5	31	0	+31	No	-$5	05-18 18:05
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 22	1	$5	8	0	+8	Yes	-$5	06-09 16:57
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	10-23 15:39
Will the Bank of Russia announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	1	$4	73	0	+73	open	—	10-23 15:36
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$4	143	143	+0	open	—	10-23 15:38
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	1	$3	11	0	+11	open	—	10-21 18:51
atp bublik paul 2026 09 04	1	$3	7	0	+7	Tommy Paul	-$3	09-04 17:10
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	1	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	08-19 20:36
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	2	$2	67	0	+67	No	-$2	09-24 19:14
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$2	8	0	+8	open	—	07-24 21:59
will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	1	$2	26	0	+26	open	—	07-24 22:03